Causes of War   Goes beyond timing of wars   This work is in progress, subject to change
	Visceral causes of crisis wars   Recognizing the visceral causes -   Mid-cycle wars are political - top-down - reasoning -   Crisis wars are visceral, instinctive, unreasoning, emotional -   Visceral motivations occur once every 70-90 year cycle   Signs of visceral hatred -   Genocide, mass murder, mass rape, rape with bottles -   Desire for vengeance -   Fear that nation or way of life is in danger
	Sources of visceral fears   Isolating causes of visceral fears -   Example: Americans after 9/11 vs London 1943 -   Example: Causes of American Civil War -   Visceral fears arise only in generational crisis periods   Threats lead to visceral fears -   Threat of invasion -   Threat of terrorism -   Threat of starvation -   Threat of disease (e.g., black plague) -   Threat of internal insurrection -   Threat of government violence -   Perception of threat may be irrational (crisis periods) -   Applies to large masses of people during crisis periods
	Results of visceral fears - war   Provoking visceral fears -   Applies to large masses of people during crisis periods -   Surprise terrorist attack -   Assassination -   Outbreak of disease -   Sudden increase in price of food or rent or taxes -   Sudden loss of job or income -   Tariff law or oil embargo causing unemployment -   Note: That's why even non-violent acts can be thought of as acts of war   Visceral fear -> Visceral hatred -> War -   'Enemy' executes hostile surprise - violent or non-violent -   Feel visceral fear - may be irrational -   Determine threat causing visceral fear - may be irrational -   Assign cause or fault to threat as 'enemy' - may be irrational -   Population develops feelings of fear and fury -   Triggers "them or us" feelings -   Leads to war
	Market-Dominant Minority Economies   Yale Professor Amy Chua in World on Fire   Example: 1994 Rwanda genocide -   Tutsis (14% of population) - market-dominant minority -   Hutu (85% of population) -   In 1994, Hutus hacked to death 900K Tutsis in 3 months   Other examples -   Chinese are MDM in many countries throughout Southeast Asia -   Whites are MDM in South Africa -   Lebanese are MDM in West Africa -   Ibo are MDM in Nigeria -   Jews are MDM in post-Communist Russia
	Thomas Roberts Malthus   Essay on Population, published in 1798 -   Population grows geometrically -   Food supply grows linearly -   Therefore population will always outstrip food supply   Corrected rates -   Population grows exponentially -   Food supply grows exponentially, at a slower rate than population -   Therefore population will always outstrip food supply -   This applies both regionally and globally   My own estimates -   Food supply grows at .96% per year, based on USDA wheat yields since 1860 -   Population grows by 1.29% per year, based on UN estimates -   Population grows by 3-5% in some countries, based on CIA Fact Book
	The Malthus Effect   Nature's methods for reducing population -   Famine, disease, war -   20-40 wars on any day in any year -   Major method is war, not famine   The Malthus Effect - my phrase for how food scarcity leads to crisis war -   As time goes on, population grows faster than food supply -   As time goes on, food becomes relatively scarcer -   As time goes on, price of food goes up -   Bowl of rice costs 1 hour labor -> 2 hours -> 3 hours -   Poverty and starvation lead to humiliation and hatred   Malthus Effect during non-crisis periods -   Poverty and starvation lead to looting and low-level violence -   Low-level violence handled by standard police methods -   Mid-cycle problems handled with restraint: compromise and containment   Malthus Effect during crisis periods -   Looting and low-level violence provoke visceral fears -   Both sides overreact -   Looting leads to brinkmanship and increasing demands -   Reactions involve increased violence and higher visibility -   Ping-pong hostile surprises lead to war

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