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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Jun-2014
5-Jun-14 World View -- History is repeating itself in China and Vietnam

Web Log - June, 2014

5-Jun-14 World View -- History is repeating itself in China and Vietnam

Nigeria helpless as Boko Haram trashes entire villages

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Nigeria helpless as Boko Haram trashes entire villages
Reader comments: History is repeating itself
Generational timeline of ancient Palestine/Israel

Nigeria helpless as Boko Haram trashes entire villages

Aftermath of Boko Haram attack in May (AFP)

Aftermath of Boko Haram attack in May (AFP)

Boko Haram on Sunday attacked residents of Attagara, a village in northeast Nigeria near the Cameroon border. Like many villages, Attagara residents were frustrated by the impotence and helplessness of the Nigerian army and security forces to protect them, so they formed vigilante groups to defend themselves. On Sunday, the Attagara vigilante groups immediately came out and retaliated, killing several of the Boko Haram militants.

On Tuesday, men dressed in army uniforms arrived in Attagara with about 200 motorcycles said they had arrived to protect the residents, and asked the residents to gather in the church. Once they were all inside, the men, who were militants in disguise, surrounded the church, killed everyone, and burnt down the entire village.

In addition to having abducted almost 300 teenage schoolgirls who have still not been recovered, and killing hundreds of civilians in bombings, Boko Haram militants have taken control of dozens of villages. Boko Haram is dividing Nigeria's public along religious lines. The Christians believe that Muslims in general are complicit with Boko Haram, while the Muslims believed that they're all being unfairly blamed for the horrific actions of a terrorist gang. It's believed that many soldiers in Nigeria's army also work for Boko Haram, in order to supplement their pay. These fears appear to have been confirmed on Wednesday, when Ten generals and five other senior military officers were found guilty in courts-martial of providing arms and information to Boko Haram extremists. AP and BBC and AP

Reader comments: History is repeating itself

The following are some reader comments to my last two articles:

From Trevor in the Generational Dynamics Forum:

"One major thing that concerns me is that, indeed, history is repeating itself once again. I've talked to numerous people and realize that we are just as arrogant, just as complacent, and just as unprepared for a major attack as we were in 1941. With all the talk that China can't possibly threaten us, we said something very similar- indeed, almost word for word- against Japan, only to be proven completely wrong. Doing the same thing against China would be even more disastrous yet it appears likely.
Our current policy is assuming that war is a thing of the past, that we'll never have to fight another ground war again, so why bother preparing for it? Any comparisons I try to make about similar mistakes in the past are shot down "We're more civilized than that now" "Things are completely different" "We're so far ahead of everyone else that we're in no danger". Of course, there are others who like to say that any warning of China or anyone else is all lies.
Sadly, pretty much everyone in office at the moment care more about their political power, crushing their rivals, rewarding their cronies, and screwing everyone else over than actually attempting to do something about the very real threats we currently face. Plenty of historians criticize our decision not to mobilize and prepare for WWII sooner, but that's exactly what we're doing today. Don't forget: winter is coming."

Alton Wang takes China's side in the BigPeace comments section:

"You are correct in that these waters [South China Sea] were indisputable for the past 2000 years, because China owned them, and Viet Nam never said anything, perhaps because Viet Nam itself was subsidiary to China and relied on Chinese troops to fight against the French and the Americans as well. Your own prime minister Pham Van Dong actually acknowledged Chinese ownership to these waters too. Now all of a sudden you are claiming sovereignty? Now who's attempting to change the status quo here?

A response from Henry Nguyen, who takes Vietnam's side in the same BigPeace comments section:

"Vietnam said nothing because they already developed and lived on these islands for 400 years. Vietnam was fighting the French for 100 years until China started helping. Whatever those helps were, eventually cancelled by Chinese invasion in 1979. PM Pham Van Dong did not acknowledge Chinese ownership (google and read again) and even if he did, as PM of North Vietnam he had no power to give away what controlled by the South. Research for facts and stop relying on Chinese distortions: Vietnam 1st sent naval troops to these islands to map, build storm shelters, plant trees, collect shipwrecks and valuables since early 1,600's. In fact, all Chinese occupations in Paracels and Spratlys today, resulted from invasions of Vietnamese presence."

Here's another question, from Thucydides in the Generational Dynamics Forum, regarding some technical questions about how generational theory applies to Vietnam, in view of the fact that Vietnam's last generational crisis war was the 1970s war between North and South Vietnam, in which the U.S. sided with the South and lost:

"It appears to me that Vietnam is behaving rather odd for a country in a generational awakening era. The governing officials that are provoking China are from the older generation that remembers the Vietnam war. Does generational dynamics predict that they will back down rather than risk an unwinnable war? Or is it possible that a country in a generational awakening era can allow things to escalate into a war that it is predestined to loose?"

Keep in mind that the U.S. didn't back down from the Korean, Vietnam and Iraq wars. The political justifications for these wars came out of WW II -- act as policeman of the world to prevent another world war.

Vietnam is in a generational Awakening era. Vietnam beat the U.S., then beat China in a brief war, and my guess is that they're thinking that they can beat the Chinese again in some way. It would be interesting to understand exactly what thought process the Vietnamese leaders are going through these days. They may believe that even if China can beat them, they'll still inflict enough damage on the Chinese that it won't be worth it to them. That would be consistent with the likely view of the victories over the U.S. and China. They wore down the U.S., and they may have decided that they can wear down China too. Generational Dynamics forum and BigPeace comments and GD forum

Generational timeline of ancient Palestine/Israel

Nathan G, a student in the Generational Dynamics forum, has done some research to establish a generational timeline for generations of ancient Palestine/Israel. He points out that several issues arise because of conflicts of chronologies (Was the Exodus in the 15th or 13th century BC? Did David rule in the 11th or 10th century BC?). However, this is a good starting point to identify generational crisis wars in those centuries, and serve as a basis for more research:

Ancient Israel/Palestine generational crisis list:

Conquest of Canaan, 1455-1448 BC (Book of Joshua)
Invasion of Moab under Eglon, 1346-1328 BC (Judges 3)
War with Midian, 1255-1248 BC (Judges 6-8)
War with Amorites, 1192-1174 BC (Judges 10-11)
Civil war with Benjamin, 1119-1112 BC (Judges 17-21) [? not sure about this one?]
Civil war between David and Saul, 1063-1059 BC (1 Samuel 19-21)
War between Israel and Judah, 979-954 BC (1 Kings 11-15) [Pharaoh Shishak also invaded in 974 BC]
War with Syria/Coup of Jehu, 890-886 BC (2 Kings 6-9)
War with Syria and Edom, c.830-825 BC (2 Kings 13-14)
Destruction of Israel by Assyria, 740-722 BC (2 Kings 17-18)
Capture of Manasseh by Assyrians, c.650 BC (2 Kings 21)
Captivity of the Jews by Nebuchadnezzar, 592-584 BC (2 Kings 24-25)
Persecution of the Jews under Xerxes, 474 BC (Book of Esther)
Persecution under Artaxerxes II, c.400 BC (implied in 3 Esdras?)
Syrian Wars by the Ptolemies, 301-274 BC (1 Maccabees 1)
Hasmonean Revolt, 170-162 BC (Books of Maccabees)
Pompey's invasion of Syria, 68 BC (Josephus) [Later Roman invasions in 53 and 37 BC]
Revolts after Herod I, 2-7 AD (ibid.)
Jewish-Roman War, 66-72 AD
Bar-Khoba revolt, 135 AD

Jesus himself was in the same generational archetype as today's Boomers, and he was an extremely charismatic Alinsky-style 1960s-style activist, just like the Boomers. That's why he caused so many headaches for the Romans and the money changers, and why they had to get revenge. Generational Dynamics forum

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Jun-14 World View -- History is repeating itself in China and Vietnam thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (5-Jun-2014) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 5-Jun-2014 5-Jun-14 World View -- History is repeating itself in China and Vietnam

Nigeria helpless as Boko Haram trashes entire villages

Reader comments: History is repeating itself

Generational timeline of ancient Palestine/Israel

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