Basics of Generational Theory

[parrot10blue]

I have always been interested in generational theory since I first heard about it back in the 1990's.
The thing I see missing and not delved into on this website is the link between the awakening phase of the cycle and the great secular crises phase of the cycle. the awakening phase drives the secular crisis. The awakening phase of the cycle represents a great spiritual reawakening and their is always a great burst of spirituality in the awakening phase>

The spiritualism at the turn of the 20th century in Austro-Hungary with its occultist writing by Madam Blovotsky and others helped create the Nazi religion. These were writings about the lost continent of Atlantis and a race of supermen who came from it that were Aryan but who were corrupted by mixing with inferior races. The treaty of Versailles at the end of WW1 set the stage for Hitlers rise to power. The occultic thought gave the Germans the justification to blame all of societies ills on the Jews, simple answers to complex problems. You can see how in this case how the secular crisis was driven by the great awakening. The occultic thought gave rise to a great Nazi religion of supermen who were destined to rule the world. The failure of the treaty of Versailles that occured at the end of the awakening period set the stage for Hitlers rise to power.

In the last era and this era there has been a dark side to these spiritual awakenings that have created the great secular crises of the era.

Strauss and Howe also mention the fact that this wave of awakenng and secular crises propagates itself without any conscious human intervention. The reason is that when you are in the secular crises phase of the cycle you neglect issues that drive the next great awakening. You have to put all of your energy into solving the great existential crisis. You cannot do everything at once. When the great secular crisis passes all of these neglected issues come to the forefront. During the great awakenings issues that drive the next great secular crisis are neglected, once the great awakening subsides they come to the forefront. For instance, during WWII FDR shunted thorny civil rights issues to the side because the South made up part of his governing coalition and he could not loose them if he was going to fight the great depression and WWii. Durin his term in office a bill dealing with lynching came for a vote in congress but a coalition of southerers blocked it from moving forward and FDR decided not top press the issue. These civil rights issues took center stage during the great awakening of the 60's and the 70's. during the 70's we saw the beginning of the rise of Islamic fundamentalism but the U. S. was still fighting the cold war and the country was deeply affected by Viet Nam. Half measures were used to fight the Islamic menace up to 9/11. The country since Viet Nam (a great awakening issue) has always been adverse to going to war and Viet Nam made us isolationist again. Most of the skirmishes like Grenada were small. The Gulf War of the 1990's was the biggest skirmish up to 9/11 in that period and it lasted just months.

[John]

> I have always been interested in generational theory since I
> first heard about it back in the 1990's.

> The thing I see missing and not delved into on this website is
> the link between the awakening phase of the cycle and the great
> secular crises phase of the cycle. the awakening phase drives the
> secular crisis. The awakening phase of the cycle represents a
> great spiritual reawakening and their is always a great burst of
> spirituality in the awakening phase>

The work on generations that Strauss and Howe did was absolutely
brilliant, and I could not have developed Generational Dynamics
without their founding work, as they described it in The Fourth
Turning.

However, their theoretical work is now almost 20 years old and their
theory contains some errors and inconsistencies that I've corrected in
Generational Dynamics. That's just the nature of things - people
will certainly be correcting some things in Generational Dynamics
after I'm gone. In particular, Strauss and Howe's work only applies
to six Anglo-American cycles since the 1400s, and three of the six
contain anomalies. There's nothing in their work that makes it
possible to provide generational analyses of all the countries that
I have -- Sri Lanka, Iran, Iraq, Rwanda, South Africa, etc., etc.,
etc.

One of the major theoretical changes is that Crisis phase drives the
Awakening phase, rather than vice versa. It's true that there must
be an Awakening era on the way from one crisis to the next, but it's
the Crisis phase that generates the next Crisis phase.

The differences between the Fourth Turning and Generational Dynamics
theories are described in my draft book Generational Dynamics for
Historians:

** Chapter 10 - Strauss and Howe's Fourth Turning Model
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 2.tftmodel

> The spiritualism at the turn of the 20th century in
> Austro-Hungary with its occultist writing by Madam Blovotsky and
> others helped create the Nazi religion. These were writings about
> the lost continent of Atlantis and a race of supermen who came
> from it that were Aryan but who were corrupted by mixing with
> inferior races. The treaty of Versailles at the end of WW1 set the
> stage for Hitlers rise to power. The occultic thought gave the
> Germans the justification to blame all of societies ills on the
> Jews, simple answers to complex problems. You can see how in this
> case how the secular crisis was driven by the great awakening. The
> occultic thought gave rise to a great Nazi religion of supermen
> who were destined to rule the world. The failure of the treaty of
> Versailles that occured at the end of the awakening period set the
> stage for Hitlers rise to power.

I'm not familiar with Blovotsky's work, but what you say sounds
right. But German history did not begin in 1900. In order to
understand Nazi Germany, you have to go back centuries, and at the
very least you have to back to the Napoleonic era.

Napoleon conquered Austria at the Battle of Austerlitz in 1805 and
Prussia a couple of years later. Germany got revenge in 1869 with a
massive bloodbath when Bismarck defeated Napoleon III, gaining the
disputed provinces of Alsace and Lorraine. Thus, the groundwork was
already laid for a new war between Germany and France. WW I was a
non-crisis war for Germany, and they ended up being humiliated,
losing Alsace and Lorraine in the bargain.

Anti-semitism was a constant theme in Europe for centuries. It
became especially pronounced in the 1800s, culminating in France with
the Dreyfus affair in the 1890s. Jews were blamed many things, and
therefore it was natural for the Jews to be blamed for the German
humiliation at Versailles.

All of these themes came together in Nazi Germany in the 1930s. But
in no way did this begin at the turn of the century.

> In the last era and this era there has been a dark side to these
> spiritual awakenings that have created the great secular crises of
> the era.

This is nothing new. There's a dark side to every Awakening era.
For example, the revolution of 1848 gave rise to Marxism, and that
was a theme of the Paris Commune of 1871, when 50,000 Parisians
slaughtered each other in a huge bloodbath.

> Strauss and Howe also mention the fact that this wave of awakenng
> and secular crises propagates itself without any conscious human
> intervention. The reason is that when you are in the secular
> crises phase of the cycle you neglect issues that drive the next
> great awakening. You have to put all of your energy into solving
> the great existential crisis. You cannot do everything at once.
> When the great secular crisis passes all of these neglected issues
> come to the forefront. During the great awakenings issues that
> drive the next great secular crisis are neglected, once the great
> awakening subsides they come to the forefront. For instance,
> during WWII FDR shunted thorny civil rights issues to the side
> because the South made up part of his governing coalition and he
> could not loose them if he was going to fight the great depression
> and WWii. Durin his term in office a bill dealing with lynching
> came for a vote in congress but a coalition of southerers blocked
> it from moving forward and FDR decided not top press the issue.
> These civil rights issues took center stage during the great
> awakening of the 60's and the 70's. during the 70's we saw the
> beginning of the rise of Islamic fundamentalism but the U. S. was
> still fighting the cold war and the country was deeply affected
> by Viet Nam. Half measures were used to fight the Islamic menace
> up to 9/11. The country since Viet Nam (a great awakening issue)
> has always been adverse to going to war and Viet Nam made us
> isolationist again. Most of the skirmishes like Grenada were
> small. The Gulf War of the 1990's was the biggest skirmish up to
> 9/11 in that period and it lasted just months.

This is way too simplistic. For one thing, Islamic fundamentalism
began significantly gaining strength in the 1940s.

For the West, the most cataclysmic event of the 20th century was
World War II. But for Russia, Turkey and the Mideast, the most
cataclysmic events surrounded World War I, including the Bolshevik
Revolution and the destruction of the Ottoman Empire. Thus, the 1940s
was an Awakening era for the Mideast.

When the Ottoman Empire was destroyed, Turkey became a secular
country, and the Caliphate in Istanbul ceased to exist. A major
theme of the 1940s Awakening era was to restore the Caliphate, and
that required a replacement for Turkey - a country that combined
government with Islam.

Moving forward in time, the next cataclysmic event for the Muslim
world was Iran's Islamic Revolution of 1979, and the Iran/Iraq war.
This appeared to solve the problem of a Muslim government, but in
fact it wasn't a solution for the Sunni Muslim world. Thus, al-Qaeda
has been using that Revolution as a template for generating its own
Sunni revolution. They've tried to duplicate that Revolution in
various countries -- Iraq, Somalia, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan
-- so far without success.

When riots and demonstrations began in Iran after this year's June 12
elections, analysts at BBC and Stratfor predicted that Iran's
Revolutionary Guards would crush the protests, and that they would
end quickly. The analogy was the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. I
predicted that the protests would continue for years, and that the
best historical analogy was not Tiananmen, but America's 1967 Summer
of Love protests (or Europe's '68er protests).

All of this analysis is not possibility with the Fourth Turning
framework.

I see that Neil Howe has started his own blog to discuss
"generational theory." I wish him luck with that, but generational
theory does not work without adopting the Generational Dynamics
model.

(By the way, I'm not sure, but I think I'm the one who coined both
phrases "generational theory" and "Generational Dynamics." I also
note that these two phrases are appearing quite frequently around the
internet these days, and I attribute that to my web site.)

John

[at99sy]

John

From time to time I interject GD into my HS history lessons. I am also in the early stages of developing a semester long course(honors/elective) on Genocide.
Do you know of any curriculum that has been designed around GD that is available for and appropriate for a public HS?
I teach 9th graders and they really "get-it" that things are not what they should be in the world. As we are discovering different civilizations and how they interact/ed with others in our class, they have been making some significant comparisons to modern events. I'm slowly introducing GD to a couple of my colleagues who are open minded and are still as curious about learning new things as I am.


Thanks for any advice!!

sy

[John]

Dear Sy,

> From time to time I interject GD into my HS history lessons. I am
> also in the early stages of developing a semester long
> course(honors/elective) on Genocide.

> Do you know of any curriculum that has been designed around GD
> that is available for and appropriate for a public HS?

> I teach 9th graders and they really "get-it" that things are not
> what they should be in the world. As we are discovering different
> civilizations and how they interact/ed with others in our class,
> they have been making some significant comparisons to modern
> events. I'm slowly introducing GD to a couple of my colleagues who
> are open minded and are still as curious about learning new things
> as I am.

I've received criticism for my treatment of genocide by people who
claim that it reduces the unique status of the Holocaust. Thus, I
always point out that the meaning of "genocide" in Generational
Dynamics is different from the commonly accepted legal definition. I
mention this because you may be subject to even worse criticism in the
public school system.

In Generational Dynamics, I don't really talk much about "genocide"
per se, but I use the adjective "genocidal" in two senses.

One sense is "genocidal acts." These are things like killing
civilians during an offense, or using civilians as human shields in
defense. Also included are terrorist acts targeting innocent
civilians.

The other sense is about how a population becomes "increasingly
genocidal" during the final phases of a crisis war. The concept is
that as a crisis war progresses, the value of individual human lives
approaches zero, while the survival of the nation or society, and its
way of life, become the only thing of importance.

Thus, in WW II, we have examples of genocidal acts on all sides. The
Germans and the Holocaust. The Japanese and the Bataan death march.
The Americans, who allowed their their own soldiers to be slaughtered
on the beaches of Normandy. And the firebombing of Dresden.

I've been told that I should try to find some other word to use
besides "genocide," but I haven't thought of one that captures the
right meaning as well.

John

[gerald]

Dear Sy,

> From time to time I interject GD into my HS history lessons. I am
> also in the early stages of developing a semester long
> course(honors/elective) on Genocide.

> Do you know of any curriculum that has been designed around GD
> that is available for and appropriate for a public HS?

> I teach 9th graders and they really "get-it" that things are not
> what they should be in the world. As we are discovering different
> civilizations and how they interact/ed with others in our class,
> they have been making some significant comparisons to modern
> events. I'm slowly introducing GD to a couple of my colleagues who
> are open minded and are still as curious about learning new things
> as I am.

I've received criticism for my treatment of genocide by people who
claim that it reduces the unique status of the Holocaust. Thus, I
always point out that the meaning of "genocide" in Generational
Dynamics is different from the commonly accepted legal definition. I
mention this because you may be subject to even worse criticism in the
public school system.

In Generational Dynamics, I don't really talk much about "genocide"
per se, but I use the adjective "genocidal" in two senses.

One sense is "genocidal acts." These are things like killing
civilians durring an offense, or using civilians as human shields in
defense. Also included are terrorist acts targeting innocent
civilians.

The other sense is about how a population becomes "increasingly
genocidal" during the final phases of a crisis war. The concept is
that as a crisis war progresses, the value of individual human lives
approaches zero, while the survival of the nation or society, and its
way of life, become the only thing of importance.

Thus, in WW II, we have examples of genocidal acts on all sides. The
Germans and the Holocaust. The Japanese and the Bataan death march.
The Americans, who allowed their their own soldiers to be slaughtered
on the beaches of Normandy. And the firebombing of Dresden.

I've been told that I should try to find some other word to use
besides "genocide," but I haven't thought of one that captures the
right meaning as well.

John

John: a suggestion, these two words," social extermination" may be help full as a substitute for the word "genocide" (and yes genocide is a simpler and cleaner word in it's usage) however I think "social extermination" may give a more realistic image of these actions and their causes.

Exterminate ---From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

1) is the act of killing with the intention of eradicating demographics within a population.
When applied to humans, the term genocide is more often used. However, extermination is categorized in international criminal law as a crime against humanity which is separate from genocide.

2)Extermination of insects or vermin relates to the field of pest control. The term is not preferred by pest control practitioners.

3)In the popular British television show Doctor Who, "Exterminate!" (usually pronounced "EX-TER-MIN-ATE", with each syllable heavily emphasised), is the battle cry of the Daleks. It is also the Daleks' intention to exterminate every other form of life in the universe.

Note the second definition of exterminate, (vermin has been used as a term for other people ). And the third definition.

Historically societies did exterminate other groups for "living space" (a standard operating procedure for thousands of years, ) this was also one of the supposed reasons for Hitler's action to conquer Europe " Lebenstaum" ( living space ), Or Rome's "extermination" of Carthage, after having had enough of the competition. Or the cause of the current problem in Darfur started by camel herders intruding on farmer's land.

This may also fit in with your concept of a clash of civilizations --- fighting for resources. When two societies bump into each other seeking the same resources there is a potential for conflict. I think the generational issue may come into play when a society decides that they have had enough, and want to settle the issue. After all, the Maya and the Chinese did not go to war with each other , for they did not know the other existed.

Another way to look at "social extermination" is from the perspective of a hive or colony mentality. During a genocidal period a person changes from a more "individual state" to a more "member" of a "hive or colony state". To fight for a cause, "For the Fatherland!", etc. This can be observed in nature when one colony of ants suddenly goes out and exterminates an adjoining colony of ants.

Gerald

[VinceP1974]

I've been told that I should try to find some other word to use
besides "genocide," but I haven't thought of one that captures the
right meaning as well.

John

A jihadist wrote a treatise called "Management of Savagery: The Most Critical Stage Through Which the Ummah Will Pass "

I think Savage can be a good candidate word to describe the vicerealness of the society in crisis.

Brutal too. Though I actually prefer your use of genocide.

[gerald]

Why does the structure of generational dynamics appear to exist? Why might a nuclear clash of civilizations occur? What could modify the singularity into a very different outcome?
For a possible answer or a mind game, go to "other ideas" under "science, technology and the singularity" .

[burt]

As I'm european, I'm going to ask you an european question.

1) How can you explain (within the Generational Theory) the proximity of WWI and WWII. On my point of view, the effect of WWI on Europe was much worse than WWII because it destroyed the idea of "Progress" which was the 19th century Idea. And it was a much worse war without any kind of rule. (WWII was terrible for the Jews, but except in Russia not for the soldiers)
1918-1939 it is really a short period of time to jump form one disaster to another.

2) Because you studied so many countries,may be you could help me: when are the "reset" time (generation o) for the different countries in Europe.
Germany, England, Russia, Poland is clearly 1945, BUT France was NOT hit by WWII (this is a myth, France was in some kind of awakening era and didn't want the war, and mostly havn'nt suffer from it, with the exception of the french jews) SPAIN neither (the crisis was the Civil War and it's dictatorship Franco, NOT WWII), PORTUGAL neither.
My question is important for me, because I do not feel confident with the kind of political agreenement we had, here for the euro, and my feeling could very well come from a generational difference between the different countries???? Your point of view...

Regards

[John]

Dear Burt,

> As I'm european, I'm going to ask you an european question.

> 1) How can you explain (within the Generational Theory) the
> proximity of WWI and WWII. On my point of view, the effect of WWI
> on Europe was much worse than WWII because it destroyed the idea
> of "Progress" which was the 19th century Idea. And it was a much
> worse war without any kind of rule. (WWII was terrible for the
> Jews, but except in Russia not for the soldiers) 1918-1939 it is
> really a short period of time to jump form one disaster to
> another.

> 2) Because you studied so many countries,may be you could help me:
> when are the "reset" time (generation o) for the different
> countries in Europe. Germany, England, Russia, Poland is clearly
> 1945, BUT France was NOT hit by WWII (this is a myth, France was
> in some kind of awakening era and didn't want the war, and mostly
> havn'nt suffer from it, with the exception of the french jews)
> SPAIN neither (the crisis was the Civil War and it's dictatorship
> Franco, NOT WWII), PORTUGAL neither. My question is important for
> me, because I do not feel confident with the kind of political
> agreenement we had, here for the euro, and my feeling could very
> well come from a generational difference between the different
> countries???? Your point of view...

Every country can have crisis wars and non-crisis wars. America, for
example, has had multiple non-crisis wars since the end of WW II, and
in fact is currently involved in two non-crisis wars (Iraq and
Afghanistan), and also marginally involved in non-crisis wars in Yemen
and Somalia.

For Germany and France, it's clear that the 1860s unification wars,
Franco-German war and Paris Commune were crisis wars.

WW I was NOT a crisis war for Germany. Many people (at least
Americans) think that WW I was just like WW II, in some early form.
Actually, WW I was clearly a non-crisis war for Germany, and more like
America's Vietnam war than WW II. The Germans got involved
reluctantly, only because of a treaty with Austria, they mishandled
the war from the beginning, there was a huge anti-war movement in
Germany, and they capitulated long before they had to, because of the
strong anti-war sentiment.

** Chapter 4 -- The Principle of Localization II
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... alization2

However, WW I was CLEARLY a crisis war for eastern Europe, the Balkans
and the Mideast -- the Bolshevik Revolution and the destruction of the
Ottoman Empire show that. Thus, WW II was an Awakening era war for
Russia, Iraq, Iran, etc.

France is an interesting case. The "orthodox" view of France is that
France is on the same timeline as Germany and America, since Strauss
and Howe pretty much established that baseline. But there's a very
strong argument, buttressed by the arguments you're making, that WW II
was actually an Awakening era war as well. The argument is that the
Battle of the Somme and the Battle of Verdun were so devastating that
a "first turning reset" occurred when the war ended. This is
something that I haven't really researched in enough detail, but it's
possible that it's true in full or in part. It's possible, for
example, that only parts of France and/or Belgium were affected in
this way.

The following are additional places where I've discussed these issues
in the past. The first one gives the great American anti-war poem "In
Flanders Fields," and the third one discusses the great British
anti-war poem "Anthem for a Doomed Youth," as well as the German
anti-war book "Im Westen Nichts Neues (All Quiet on the Western
Front)."

** In Flanders Fields
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 11#e061111

** Tomorrow is the 90th Anniversary of the 1914 Christmas Truce
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 23#e041223

** Politicians commemorate Battle of the Somme, July 1, 1916
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 02#e060702

** Chapter 2 -- American History
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... canhistory

John

[burt]

Fantastic answer, thank you.

WW I was NOT a crisis war for Germany.

Yes, I agree, I forgot this point. IT IS important for today's analysis. BUT the Austrian government did atrocities to their own people and to germans, so this was an crisis war for Austria, correct?

The argument is that the Battle of the Somme and the Battle of Verdun were so devastating that
a "first turning reset" occurred when the war ended.

YES, this is the point, because of the atrocities the french government did at its own people, coming from all parts of France, so it hit all France.

So could you please help me in setting where we are NOW, which generation for which country (the main ones are enough)

GERMANY
FRANCE
SPAIN
GREECE
ITALY

This is important, because, it could come inside Europe to something more or less like a civil war (on a political point of view, without weapons) and I'd be happy to use the generational Theory to understand what is happening right now.
So this Theory and your own knowledge of it could be the most useful for me.

Regards