Basics of Generational Theory

Awakening eras, crisis eras, crisis wars, generational financial crashes, as applied to historical and current events
John
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Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by John »

AinBmore wrote: > I think that not having an explanation of these dynamics in your
> model weakens its persuasiveness and reflects no less a political
> attitude than my raising the question.

> It may require you to broaden some of your reading to fill in on
> the history to pick up the patterns but in light of how much
> you've done already it would be great for you to add these to your
> model.
OK, fine. Since you've obviously broadened your reading a lot more
than I have, please tell me exactly how you would like to see the
concept of race worked into generational theory. And please don't
make some cheap excuse for not being able to do it, because you're
presenting yourself as knowing all about it.

Please include in your analysis of race several of the following
ethnic and race examples, depending on what you're familiar
with:
  • Hutus vs Tutsis in Rwanda.
  • Han vs Tibetans in China.
  • Han vs Uighurs in China.
  • Yanks vs Latinos in America.
  • Ndebele vs Shona in Zimbabwe.
  • Persians vs Arabs in Mideast.
  • Khmer vs Thai in southeast Asia.
  • Georgians vs Ossetians in Georgia.
  • Turks vs Armenians in Ottoman empire.
  • Europeans vs Aztecs and Mayans in Mexico.
That's just a list off the top of my head - you can pick four or five
examples of your own.

Since you seem to be so knowledgeable and so broadly read, I'll be
looking forward to reading your contribution to Generational
Dynamics.

John

AinBmore
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Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by AinBmore »

I seem to have touched a nerve. Hmm. I can concede I know nothing in depth about most of the ethnic group conflicts that you've listed and then you'll feel triumphant and less threatened and I'll escape the "cheap excuse" accusation.

Or I can say that my question does not relate to historical conflicts between warring groups but more to racial ideology and oppression and how that plays a role in how the society defines itself, its problems, its aspirations, who the society targets as the boogeyman that must be enslaved or excluded even though they are an integral part of the workforce and the culture, or scapegoated for all of society's problems (for example, equating blackness with crime or a current example, "minorities" are being blamed for causing the current crisis because Fannie Mae, Barney Frank and the CRA forced the banks to lend them money for houses they couldn't afford). While Obama's candidacy certainly represents a symbolic racial shift, the ways in which he is constrained to not show anger lest he frighten white people and the continued existence of massive and devastating incarceration of black men suggests an ongoing racial problem.

Perhaps through lived experience I've had more "opportunity" to think about these issues than you have so the question comes off to you as challenging or that I'm trying to one up you in some respect. Nope. Just trying to encourage a deepening of the discussion. Race cannot be dismissed as a mere demographic or political characteristic. I guess it will take some interest as well as work to put together an enriched account for generational theory. I have a day job, otherwise, I might attempt it.

John
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Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by John »

AinBmore wrote: > I seem to have touched a nerve. Hmm. I can concede I know nothing
> in depth about most of the ethnic group conflicts that you've
> listed and then you'll feel triumphant and less threatened and
> I'll escape the "cheap excuse" accusation.
The reason you touched a nerve is because I know your type -- the
criticizing, whining and complaining Boomer or Gen-Xer who has
accomplished nothing but constantly expresses contempt for anyone
else.

And you haven't escaped the "cheap excuse" accusation, because you
haven't contributed a single positive thing.

I said that, from the the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
race is one of a set of demographic factors, such as language,
geographical location, and religion, that determine crisis era fault
lines. You seem to take offense from that, start accusing me of not
being "broadly read," say that I'm being reductionist, and you seem to
imply that race is a more important factor than the others.

Well, someone who's more focused on religion than you might object to
your attitude toward religion. Are fault line wars between religious
groups really less important than fault line wars between ethnic or
racial groups? A Muslim might say, for example, say, "Your
reductionist attitude toward religion offends me, and ignores how
religion 'plays a role in how the society defines itself, its
problems, its aspirations, who the society targets as the boogeyman
that must be enslaved or excluded even though they are an integral
part of the workforce and the culture, or scapegoated for all of
society's problems.'" Let's get into how Christians have enslaved
Muslims, and how Muslims have enslaved Christians. Let's get into why
a Jew has never been President, or why Mitt Romney was rejected by so
many people. Romney's candidacy, if it had succeeded, would have been
as important to society as Obama's is, but Romney would claim that he
was defeated by exactly the same kinds of suspicious and hateful
attacks that you attribute to Obama.

The fact is that everyone has a claim of that type. My mother always
used to complain that when she was a girl, other kids called her a
"greasy Greek."

Furthermore, when you say, "my question does not relate to historical
conflicts between warring groups but more to racial ideology and
oppression," you're making my point for me. Generational Dynamics
specifically rejects ideology and politics as controlling events in
the great generational events. Every crisis war has some cause
having to do with race, ethnicity, religion, geography, or some other
demographic factor that becomes an ideological factor, but the
Generational Dynamics model abstracts those demographic factors into
the concept of a "fault line" that includes all of them.
AinBmore wrote: > I guess it will take some interest as well as work to put together
> an enriched account for generational theory. I have a day job,
> otherwise, I might attempt it.
That's exactly right. I have to work for a living too -- believe me,
no one is paying me to write for this web site, so I would have to
say that "I have a day job" is just another lame excuse.

But I mean this quite seriously: If you really believe that race can
be worked into Generational Dynamics in a more satisfactory way, then
you could at least write an analytical article suggesting how you
might do it. Also, even if you aren't aware of a lot of other
examples of racial fault lines, surely you know of one or two
somewhere (Persian vs Arab? Turks vs Kurds?) that you could include
in your analysis. Perhaps I'm missing something, and you can fill in
the blanks. It's up to you.

Sincerely,

John

AinBmore
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Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2008 5:51 pm

Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by AinBmore »

"The reason you touched a nerve is because I know your type -- the
criticizing, whining and complaining Boomer or Gen-Xer who has
accomplished nothing but constantly expresses contempt for anyone
else."

John, I stopped reading here. I'll not visit your forum again.

John
Posts: 11485
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by John »

Some questions from a web site reader:
> Been reading GD for about the past eight weeks, shortly after I
> finished reading the fourth turning. I'm heading out to the Santa
> Fe Institute on Nov 6th for the annual board of trustees meeting
> and will be bringing up both the Turnings and GD to see what folks
> there already know.

> Some questions/observations:

> * Any consideration of "entrainment"? If you watch harmonic
> oscillators (in this case generations) that are on different
> cycles, once you allow them some form of inter-feedback you will
> see them slip their original cycle and ultimately entrain to a new
> cycle. Presumably the global population has been increasingly
> communicating along all dimensions (e.g., generational psychology
> through mass media and pop culture; economic through global trade
> and financial markets, etc) which implies that we should expect
> some modulation to the traditional cycle as the global system
> begins to resonate. Russia, Germany, Japan, EU and USA would be
> the most challenging cycles to resonate with China, India and the
> Middle-East getting captured in their attraction.
Entrainment does indeed occur. If you have a region with multiple
countries and multiple timelines, and they all have crisis wars with
one another at different times, then eventually they'll synchronize
into a single world war -- or at least, that's what we're about to
experience with the Clash of Civilizations world war, which combines
both the WW I and WW II timeline.

Generally speaking, if country A in a crisis era has a crisis war
with country B in an Awakening era, then it will be a crisis war for
A, and a non-crisis war for B, and the two timelines will remain
distinct.

Also, if country A in a crisis era has a crisis war with country B in
a late Unraveling era, then it will be a crisis war for both
countries, and the two countries' timelines will synchronize by 5
years or so.

However, it's also possible for timelines to diverge. If countries A
and B have crisis wars and are aligned, but then B has an early
crisis war with C, then B's timeline will move back by about 5 years,
and will no longer be fully aligned with A.

One important thing to remember is that a crisis war is never the
same for two countries, even if they fight in the same war. It's
like a married couple arguing about sex, when he's really arguing
about money and she's really arguing about his mother. Two countries
fighting a crisis war are fighting totally different wars, even when
they're fighting each other.
> * Dampening. I believe that one of the things we are seeing "this
> time" that is novel to the last cycle around is the massive
> focused anti-panic messaging that is being presented through the
> mass media. If you think of the social system as a sum of
> information channels, the movement of the past 80 years has been
> the amelioration of a wide variety of information channels
> (person to person, small independent paper, radio, etc) and the
> massive growth of a highly centralized information channel (mass
> media, specifically televised mass media). Our ability to think
> is highly conditioned by our ability to receive information from
> the outside world - to the degree that our "outside world" is a
> single message (e.g., "dont panic") we will be hard pressed to
> think otherwise. Obviously, this concentration of the
> information channel ultimately has to square with direct personal
> experience (the Ur information channel) and since the market is,
> in fact, due for a significant reversion, the "dampening" effects
> of the mass media will ultimately crack (which, notably will
> likely lead to a decisive long term break with formal media
> channels as one output of the current crisis). Something to factor
> into your comparisons between the 2008 crisis with the 1929
> crisis.
I strongly disagree with this. There have always been anti-panic
messages, and just because they can travel a little faster today does
not mean that they have more impact.
> * Are you aware of anyone who has attempted a serious scientific
> approach to the turnings hypothesis? It seems eminently
> mathemetizable and should be addressable by many of the techniques
> developed at SFI, but I'd love to hear of anything that has alredy
> been done. I haven't found anything on the Fourth Turnings
> website.
I've developed several theoretical models, and I believe that I can
prove that the Generational Dynamics model must apply to all
intelligent species, satisfying some fairly simple assumptions. This
would include intelligent life on another planet.

You can find an outdated, but still valuable, discussion of this
subject in Chapter 7 of my long-languishing book:

** Chapter 7 - The Singularity
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... book2.next

> * Is there any coherent thinking on whether there are
> longer-period cycles into which the 4-generation cycles are
> embedded? There seems to be some sort of communication that
> happens between cycles as cycle (e.g., the civil war had to unwind
> many of the things left embedded by the revolution of 1776) and
> there seems to be a variety of larger cycles as well (see Peter
> Turchin and Geoffrey West's work)
I believe that Arnold J. Toynbee did the seminal work on 500 year
civilization cycles. I'm a little familiar with Turchin's work, and
I even spoke to him once, but unfortunately he seems not to want to
incorporate generational cycles in his work. I believe I now know
how to create a "unified field theory" that takes everything into
account, but until I can generate some real academic interest,
development will have to wait.

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum

The Grey Badger
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 11:50 pm

Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by The Grey Badger »

I use Strauss & Howe and the Generational Dynamics books for the Saeculum. Fischer (Long Wave) and Toynbee for the MegaSaceculum. Alvin Toffler for the Very Long View (Foraging Age, Agricultural Age, Industrial Age, Information Age}.

There also seems to be a cycle longer than Toynbee's but shorter than Toffler's, which I see as "Civilizations often come in pairs." To whit: Classical Civilization stretched from the rise of Athens to the Fall of Rome. Medieval Civilization, from the 5th to the 15th Century. Western Civilization and whatever you want to call what we've been in since 1914 (a Cultural Megacrisis - would that be the start of a MegaAwakening?}

And on an even longer scale, Stone Age, Bronze Age, Iron Age, Steel Age, Machine Age (unpowered - contemporaneous with Medieval and Early Modern), Machine Age (powered),etc. Which latter ARE growing shorter since technology is cumulative.

Matt1989
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Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by Matt1989 »

The Grey Badger wrote: There also seems to be a cycle longer than Toynbee's but shorter than Toffler's, which I see as "Civilizations often come in pairs." To whit: Classical Civilization stretched from the rise of Athens to the Fall of Rome. Medieval Civilization, from the 5th to the 15th Century. Western Civilization and whatever you want to call what we've been in since 1914 (a Cultural Megacrisis - would that be the start of a MegaAwakening?}
I think that was Spengler's, which really isn't much different than Toynbee's.

malleni
Posts: 150
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 3:34 pm

Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by malleni »

John wrote: ...
What's important is the maximum effective human lifespan, which has
been at 80 years for millennia. In every society, at every time in
history, there are always a fraction of the population of every
generation who survive the latest war, famine or plague, and it's
those survivors who continue the generational cycles.
...
Thanks John,

I understand your stand point that average live span is not important for GD theory, but the effective human lifespan.

This on the another side should imply that the oldest people in some society should have quite influence on it... (until new generation)
If we looking just the American society, and people who is today at least 80 years (thay have about 5-10 years in the Great depresion time and remembering it at least in aftermath events).
How big influence they have today in the American society?

One man who undoubtedly has this influence is Alan Greenspan (born March 6, 1926 in New York City).
Even today.
OK. He had just 5 years in the impact phase 1931, but still he was able to understand the influence of these time.

As we see today many people actualy accuse Alan Greenspan for the problem in the US (World) finance today.
(I think that even you have not very nice words about his financial policy last years on his position)

So the questions for discussion:
If Alan who was child of the Great depression and economist - did not understand the mechanism behind it... How we can expected that it can be understand from any other 80 years man or women?
Moreover, even if they could understand it, and have influence (1/3 as Alans who apparently did not understand it!) ) - who would believe them?... (I think that you considerate it in your site too, but not for very influential man as Alan, who is not the chief banker now, but still working as influential financial adviser.)


And it is probably the same for all civilizations, in all countries in the different time.

Sincerely yours
malleni

axis_of_evil
Posts: 14
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2008 4:59 pm

Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by axis_of_evil »

AinBmore wrote:"The reason you touched a nerve is because I know your type -- the
criticizing, whining and complaining Boomer or Gen-Xer who has
accomplished nothing but constantly expresses contempt for anyone
else."

John, I stopped reading here. I'll not visit your forum again.
...and nothing of value was lost.

wayland
Posts: 1
Joined: Thu Oct 23, 2008 7:43 am

Re: Basics of Generational Theory

Post by wayland »

Question; have you considered the 432-year superinflation cycle?

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_02 ... 40502.html

That argues for a superinflation cycle every 4 years, starting sometime around now. If you want to read an argument for it happening now, see http://republicofnh.org/betrayal.pdf

I'd be interested in hearing your response to these :).

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