False panics vs Real panics
(First posted in 2007)
The discussion of the 58 year hypothesis has raised a number of very
good questions that need to be addressed. These are some additional
thoughts.
The main issue has to do with "false panics" (like the panic of 1987)
and "real panics" (like new crisis wars that begin 58 years after the
end of the previous crisis war).
False panics and real panics have something very big in common:
They're both panics.
And they both occur about 58 years after some disastrous event that
transformed society. This is reasonable, since that's the time that
the last of the people who survived the disastrous event are 62 years
old, and about to retire.
The DIFFERENCE between them is about the environment and the reaction
to the panic.
Thus, the panic of 1987 was a panic, but it was a false panic because
the stock market was underpriced and recovered quickly. A panic
today would be a real panic, because the stock market is overpriced
by a factor of 250%+.
The number 58 isn't absolute. The statistical term is "mode,"
meaning that more crisis wars begin in year 58 (of the saeculum) than
in any other year.
Here's the table that I've posted several times before:
.
LENGTH OF INTER-CRISIS PERIOD
Fraction
# years of total Turning
------- -------- ------------------
0- 40 0% 1T, 2T
41- 49 11% first half of 3T
50- 59 33% second half of 3T
60- 69 25% first half of 4T
70- 79 16% second half of 4T
80- 89 4% fifth turning
90- 99 6%
100-117 5%
If we go back to my original figures, and we focus on the range of
years from 40-79, then here's the distribution table:
.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
------- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --
40-49 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 2
50-59 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 4
60-69 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 1
70-79 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
As you can see, of the 100+ wars that I looked at, 5 of them began in
year 58, with 5 being the highest count. The counts drop off rapidly
before and after 58, indicating that 58 really is a special year in
generational theory.
Regeneracy versus Backlash and Resolution
Let's look at how Strauss and Howe describe the regeneracy:
The Fourth Turning pages 257-258 wrote:
> The catalyst can be one spark or, more commonly, a series of
> sparks that self-ignite like the firecrackers traditionally used
> by the Chinese to mark their own breaks in the circle of time.
> Each of these sparks is linked to a specific threat about which
> the society had been fully informed but against which it had left
> itself poorly protected. Afterward, the fact that these sparks
> were <i>foreseeable</i> but poorly <i>foreseen</i> gives rise to a
> new sense of urgency about institutional dysfunction and civic
> vulnerablity. This marks the beginning of the vertiginous spiral
> of Crisis.
> Once this new mood is fully catalyzed, a society begins a process
> of <i>regeneracy</i>, a drawing together into whatever definition
> of community is available at the time. Out of the debris of the
> Unraveling, a new civic ethos arises. One set of post-Awakening
> ideals prevails over the others. People stop tolerating the
> weakening of institutions, splintering of the culture, and the
> individualizing of daily behavior. Spiritual curiosity abates,
> manners traditionalize, and the culture is harnessed as
> propanganda for the purpose of overtly reinforcing good conduct.
> History teaches that, roughly one to three years after the initial
> catalyst, people begin acknowledging this new synergy in community
> life and begin deputizing government to enforce it. Collective
> action is now seen as vital to solving the society's most
> fundamental problems.
> A Crisis mood does not guarantee that the new governing policies
> will be well designed or will work as intended. To the contrary:
> Crisis eras are studded with faulty leadership and inept
> management -- from President Lincoln's poor record of choosing
> generals to President Roosevelt's collassal blunders with such
> alphabet soup agencies as the AAA, NRA and WPA. [p. 258] What
> makes a Crisis special is the public's willlingness to let leaders
> lead even when they falter and to let authorities be authoritative
> even when they make mistakes. Amid this civic solidarity,
> mediocre leaders can gain immense popular following; bad policies
> can be made to work (or, at least, be perceived as working); and,
> as at Pearl Harbor, even a spectacular failure does not undermine
> public support. Good policy choices pay off quickly. (In an
> Awakening, by contrast, even the best leaders and plans can fail,
> and one misstep can destroy public confidence.)
The concept behind "regeneracy" is that civic unity is "regenerated,"
and that the society rejects the old political battles and unifies.
But Strauss and Howe's description is more nuanced than that. There's
not a total unity, but a shift toward unity.
Whenever the subject of regeneracy comes up, I always remember that
in 1864, at the height of the Civil War, the Democratic Party
platform called for an end to hostilities through negotiation with
the South, allowing slavery to continue. Ironically, if you read the
1864 Democratic Party platform and change a few of the words, it
sounds just like the Democrats today. Plus ça change, plus c'est la
même chose.
http://www.sewanee.edu/faculty/Willis/C ... ratic.html
The point is that there's no absolute unity, even after "regeneracy."
There's simply a shifted balance of opinion from one pole to another.
It's not the regeneracy that unifies the country but the climax and
resolution (in the case above, completely discrediting the "peace
Democrats"). At that point, there's a RETROSPECTIVE decision as to
who was right.
Strauss and Howe describe the morphology of crisis eras as going
through these steps: Catalyst, regeneracy, climax, resolution.
We'll replace this morphology with the following steps:
- Catalyst - series of sparks as before.
- Panic or panicked response. This is most likely to occur in year
58.
- There are two groups:
- Regeneracy: Those that support the panicked response.
- Backlash: Those that oppose the panicked response.
During a war, political power will shift back and forth between the
two groups, depending on how things are going.
- Climax and resolution: Determines who was right (the "regeneracy"
people or the "backlash" people).
And so, we're now able to define the difference between a "false
panic" and a "real panic":
- A "false panic" is one in which the backlash group wins -- i.e.,
the panicked response is resolved as a mistake.
- A "real panic" is one in which the regeneracy group wins -- i.e.,
the panicked response is resolved as correct.
Examples of false panics
Now let's look at some examples of false panics, and see how they fit
into this morphology.
- Panic of 1987, Panic of 1914.
Panicked response: Selling into the stock market collapse.
Regeneracy: Failed, because the stock market recovered. Backlash:
Resolved as correct, because the panic must have been a mistake.
Climax: The stock market recovered quickly. Resolution: Policy
decisions are credited with the quick recovery from the panic. The
resolution is that a crash will never occur again, since the same
policy decisions can always be used.
Contrafactual: If it had resulted in a Great Depression, then the
regeneracy would have resulted in another "New Deal" set of
regulations, and so forth.
- Panic of 1772. The Ayr Bank in Scotland had issued paper
currency freely to aid speculators in housing and toll roads. A bad
crop harvest on the Continent triggered the failure of a speculative
investment by London banker Alexander Fordyce, which triggered the
failure of the Ayr Bank, leading to the Panic of 1772. This
triggered the failure of the Bank of England in July 1772, from which
it recovered quickly. However, many colonial businesses were in debt
to the English banks, and were suddenly unable to obtain further
credit, forcing them to liquidate their inventories, thus ending their
businesses. This infuriated the colonists, leading to the Boston Tea
Party and the Revolutionary War.
The quick recovery of the Bank of England after the Panic of 1771
indicates a "false panic," but the event occurred only 51 years after
the bursting of the South Sea Bubble (1721), so it may or may not be
an example of the 58 year hypothesis.
- Swine Flu Panic of 1976. The Swine Flu False Panic of 1976
occurred exactly 58 years after the Spanish Flu epidemic of 1918. A
new pandemic was feared.
Panicked response: Massive vaccination program for American public.
Regeneracy: Failed, because no pandemic occurred. Backlash: No
vaccination program is needed. Climax: A political fiasco, as more
people died from the vaccine than from the flu. Resolution: A flu
pandemic is nothing to worry about.
Contrafactual: If there had been a large swine flu pandemic, then
there would have been major policy changes in health policy.
- Palmer Raids of 1919. On June 2, 1919, a number of bombs
were detonated in Washington and seven other American cities. This
caused a panic that led to the rounding up of thousands of "radicals"
and "leftists," jailing many. The panic lasted about a year, but ended
in political fiasco when an expected "Communist revolution" didn't
occur on May 1, 1920.
This panic occurred 58 years after Abraham Lincoln suspended
habeas corpus in 1861 during the Civil War. This act
permitted the government to round up people and jail them without a
trial or legal representation.
Panicked response: Jailing of leftists. Regeneracy: Failed, because
no insurrection occurred. Climax: A political fiasco. Resolution:
Restoration of civil rights.
Contrafactual: If there had been an actual Communist uprising in
1921, then it may well have lead to a new American civil war in the
1930s or 1940s.
- Israel war with Hizbollah in Lebanon, 2006.
When Hizbollah captured two Israeli soldiers, Israel panicked and,
within four hours, launched a war with no plans and no objectives.
This occurred 58 years after the creation of Israel that launched the
genocidal war between Jews and Palestinians in 1948-49.
Panicked response: War with Hizbollah. Regeneracy: Failed, because
Israel did not destroy Hizbollah, did not recapture soldiers, DID
destroy much Lebanon infrastructure. Backlash: The war was a big
mistake by the Olmert administration.
** Israeli governnment in crisis after report on war with Hizbollah
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi-bin/D.PL?xct=gd.e070504#e070504
Resolution: It's too early for a final resolution.
Contrafactual: Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era. If
Lebanon had been in a Crisis era, then the attack would have spiraled
into a full-scale Mideast war.
- 1938 radio broadcast, "War of the Worlds."
This was a very tense time for Americans, who were still in the depths
of the Great Depression. Radios were selling at a record pace, as
Hitler was rallying his forces in Europe, having already taken control
of the Sudetenland area in Czechoslovakia. On the other side of the
world, the Japanese had invaded China and were in the process of
taking over. Many were extremely anxious about war.
In this atmosphere, the radio program appeared to be a music program
interrupted by news bulletins reporting on an invasion of Martians in
cities around the country. Although announcements during the program
informed listeners that it was fiction, tens or hundreds of thousands
of listeners panicked, believing that a real invasion was taking
place. A substantial minority believed that it was a German
invasion rather than a Martian invasion.
As far as I know, this is not an example of a 58-year panic, but it
IS an example of a panic that occurs in a Crisis era.
This is a great example because it occurred in a generational crisis
era, and it illustrates how large masses of people react to threats
of war during crisis periods. If that much panic occurred among a
relatively few listeners to a radio program describing a fictional
event, imagine how much greater the panic would have been if the
story had been about a REAL German or Japanese invasion.
Panicked response: Running out into the streets to kill the Martians
and/or Germans. Regeneracy: Failed, because there were no Martians,
and no Germans. Backlash: Nothing to worry about. Climax: People out
in the streets realize they look like idiots. Resolution: Years of
government grants for psychological studies to determine why people
panicked.
Contrafactual: If it had been an actual German invasion, WW II would
have started. It it had been an actual Martian invasion -- well, who
knows?
- Salem Witch Trials of 1692. Four teenage girls appeared to
have epileptic fits, and accused several neighbors of witchcraft.
Panic ensued, and by the time it was all over, dozens of people had
been jailed and 20 had died.
This has all the earmarks of a false panic. Does anyone know of
anything special that happened in New England in 1634?
The Iraq War
I want to discuss this example at greater length.
The Iraq war began in 1991, in reaction Saddam Hussein's 1990
invasion of Kuwait. The 16-year war against Saddam began with
enormous restraint.
First, Iraq was ejected from Kuwait. Then there were several years
of overflights to protect the Kurds and Sunnis from Saddam.
The Clinton administration escalated the war with Operation Provide
Comfort in 1996 and Operation Northern Watch in December, 1998.
The latter phase began in earnest in December, 1998, when Saddam
expelled the U.N. weapons inspectors. The Clinton/Gore
administration immediately began furiously bombing Iraq, and that
bombing continued on almost a daily basis, into the next
administration.
http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/mi ... flict.html
Everything up to 2003 could be considered a measured, "unraveling
era" response, representing policies of containment and compromise.
We normally view the 2003 ground invasion as a follow-on to the 9/11
attacks and the Afghan war.
I would like to propose an entirely different explanation of the 2003
ground invasion:
- World War II ended in 1945. The climax of the war was the use of
nuclear weapons (WMDs) on the enemy, triggering their immediate
unconditional surrender. The resolution was (in part) that WMDs were
effective weapons in immediately ending a war.
- 58 years later, 2003, the American public began to panic over
WMDs.
- The result was a panicked, poorly planned ground invasion of
Iraq to remove Saddam and destroy the WMDs. Regeneracy: Failed,
because no WMDs were found. Backlash: The ground invasion must have
been an enormous mistake. Climax and resolution: Too early to tell.
(However, see the Democratic Party platform of 1864 referenced
earlier in this posting.)
Looking at it this way, the ground invasion of Iraq had NOTHING TO DO
with 9/11. It would have occurred anyway, because of panic over
WMDs. This may be surprising, but remember that the Iraq war has
been going on since 1991, and daily bombing had been going on since
1998. In the absence of 9/11, it's perfectly reasonable to assume
that the same kind of public panic over WMDs would have occurred, and
the same kind of ground invasion would have occurred.
Panicked response: Ground invasion of Iraq. Regeneracy: Failed,
because no WMDs were found. Backlash: Bad war, a repeat of the
Vietnam war. Climax and resolution: Too early to determine.
Contrafactual: If WMDs had been found, along with evidence that
Saddam had planned to use them, then we would have continued on into
Syria and Iran by now.
Theoretical conclusions.
Almost from the day that I picked up the book
The Fourth
Turning, shortly after 9/11, the "Great Depression anomaly" has
been a major concern for me. I went through a year-long process
trying to decide for myself whether generational theory was valid, or
was at the level of astrology. TFT is based on a sample of only six
saeculae, and with so few samples, every anomaly had to be credibly
explained for the theory to have any validity.
I resolved this anomaly in two ways:
- Every crisis war occurs in conjunction with a major financial
crisis. This really isn't surprising, but it has to be mentioned.
- If you go back through history, there are of course many small or
regional recessions. But since the 1600s there have been only five
major international financial crises: the 1637 Tulipomania bubble,
the South Sea bubble of the 1710s-20s, the bankruptcy of the French
monarchy in the 1789, the Panic of 1857 (also known as the Hamburg
Crisis of 1857) and the 1929 Wall Street crash. These major
international financial crises are on a timeline all their own,
independent of any country's crisis war timeline.
The recognition of the 58 year hypothesis provides additional
resolution to the anomaly, by explaining how a financial crisis leads
to a false panic after 58 years, convincing people that there's
nothing to fear from a new crisis, permitting a real panic and crisis
to occur later.
Beyond that, the 58 year hypothesis adds some additional texture to
generational theory in general in the following ways:
- Instead of tying all generational events to crisis wars, we can
now view any general disaster as something with generational impact.
Think of a societal disaster as an earthquake that creates a tsunami
that reaches land 58 years later.
- Different kinds of events can create completely independent
generational timelines. For example, a financial timeline may be
different from a war timeline. However, timelines can interact with
each other, as a financial crisis can cause a war crisis, or vice
versa.
- However, different kinds of generational timelines may not have
the same kinds of turnings as crisis war timelines. Turnings may not
apply at all to financial crisis timelines or flu pandemic timelines.
There may be no "fourth turning" concept at all. (Although I would
mark the beginning of the "financial fourth turning" following the
1929 crash as beginning with the 1995 bubble.)
- The 1930s fourth turning never really made sense, since the
crisis mood was entirely over financial issues, not much over
war-related issues. But now we can look at the financial fourth
turning as beginning in 1929, and the war fourth turning as beginning
at some time in the 1930s.
There are plenty of opportunities for research projects here, both
formal and informal.
Just pick your favorite historical catastrophe and research whether
something related happened 58 years later; or, pick some panic that
turned into a fiasco, and look 58 years earlier to see what caused
it.
Sincerely,
John
P.S.: I wrote about the Iraq war as an example of the 58-year
hypothesis here:
** The Iraq war may be related to the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 17#e080217
