Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

[vincecate]

To me it seems that since there was no resistance from $42 to $48 or from $48 to $42 last time till that we should not expect reistance till $48 this time. Why do you expect resistance around $45?

[vincecate]

When even people in this group think stocks can go up it is really time for a crash.

Good point - I agree with that. I think how soon is the only question. I just went short again from 10 points higher. The market shouldn't be running that fast under normal bullish conditions.

S&P was down 3.5% a few minutes ago. It is now down for the year. It seems kind of crashy to me.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=SPY

[Higgenbotham]

To me it seems that since there was no resistance from $42 to $48 or from $48 to $42 last time till that we should not expect reistance till $48 this time. Why do you expect resistance around $45?

Silver just fell over $1 in 5 minutes. So this may be the beginning of the end.

Markets many times will make a retest attempt at the low between a double top or two highs. But, geez, let's not give the HFTs any more info to program into their bots. I only posted those charts because it didn't seem like people knew what I was saying in words.

If gold is still up (and I haven't checked yet but will now) then it's a safe haven.

[vincecate]

To me it seems that since there was no resistance from $42 to $48 or from $48 to $42 last time till that we should not expect reistance till $48 this time. Why do you expect resistance around $45?

Silver just fell over $1 in 5 minutes. So this may be the beginning of the end.

Markets many times will make a retest attempt at the low between a double top or two highs. But, geez, let's not give the HFTs any more info to program into their bots. I only posted those charts because it didn't seem like people knew what I was saying in words.

If gold is still up (and I haven't checked yet but will now) then it's a safe haven.

Gold is down too. Exciting day.

[Higgenbotham]

Gold is down too. Exciting day.

Silver made an outside day reversal today. So if it can clear today's high that would be very bullish and I will not go short above there.

On the other hand, it looks more likely to me that silver will now continue lower. I didn't get short.

[vincecate]

The dollar is up 1.27% against other paper money.

ECB will be printing money faster.

http://edition.cnn.com/BUSINESS/

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html? ... &w=&v=dmax

Mish says global currency wars entering a new phase. If others are printing faster, then the dollar is not as bad as it was before, compared to paper money.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot. ... stage.html

But why the drop in gold and silver?

[Higgenbotham]

But why the drop in gold and silver?

The common explanation would be someone was leveraged up and had to get liquid.

I have a friend who's long a lot of gold and he's been real excited. I said to him, well, we'll find out if gold is real money when there are balance sheet problems.

Let's say I have a position in GLD. The DTCC has me on their electronic books but there's no longer a paper certificate available to put in my name. Anyway, I think that's how it works. I go to my bank because I'm tapped out and present the GLD as potential collateral. My banker asks if I have anything I can sign over to him with regards to the GLD. I don't know - do I? He asks where the gold is stored. I tell him I'm not sure but I think it's stored in London. He says can you get that moved here to our vault or what does this electronic statement thingy you have give me if you default on the loan you're asking for?

[RDRUNR]

I noticed silver and gold tumbled in price yesterday while the US Dollar rallied (even vs commodity currencies like the CDN).

Silver to $20 by the end of the year?
Gold to $1000 by the end of the year?


Those in gold might be waiting another 31 years and counting to get their money back...

[vincecate]

Silver to $20 by the end of the year?
Gold to $1000 by the end of the year?

The drop in gold and silver just took them to where they were a couple days ago. They are printing paper dollars 1,000 times faster now than in the 1930s (trillion per year instead of billion). To me it seems dangerous to bet that silver will only be 20 times the price it was back then. However, we all place our own bets based on our own understanding and predictions.

[CrosstimbersOkie]

I wouldn't call a $7.40 drop in gold and a $2.41 drop in silver a "tumble." Especially when gold is $171.45 an ounce higher than it was 30 days before, and $460.90 higher than it was 365 days before. Ditto for silver. It closed August 4th at a price that's $5.70 higher than 30 days before, and $21.13 higher than it was 365 days before.

Prices will have to truly tumble before anyone is caught unless they just bought within the last year or so. In my case about 46% for gold and about 76% for silver. I hope I can make it to my local coin dealers before the price drops that drastically.