Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
John
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by John »

Dear Vince,
vincecate wrote: > John, in the proposed scenario, if inflation is 8% to 14% and
> interest rates are 8%, and the interest on the debt is more than
> the total taxes, and the government is printing money like crazy,
> you would still put your savings in US debt? Really? I am sure no
> country has saved their currency after getting that far gone.
I misunderstood what Richard was saying, and shouldn't have responded
as I did.

Nonetheless, when people talk about "fleeing the dollar," they
never seem to answer the question: "Flee the dollar into what?"

If you're going to hypothetically assume 10% inflation in the dollar
currency, then you'd have to assume 10% (or more) inflation in the
euro and other currencies as well, for exactly the same reasons. Gold
and other commodities would skyrocket, so under this hypothetical
scenario, those commodities would be even more risky than the dollar.
As the world reserve currency, the dollar is still the safest
investment for many people. So, flee the dollar into what?

John

richard5za
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by richard5za »

John wrote:If you're going to hypothetically assume 10% inflation in the dollar
currency, then you'd have to assume 10% (or more) inflation in the
euro and other currencies as well, for exactly the same reasons. Gold
and other commodities would skyrocket, so under this hypothetical
scenario, those commodities would be even more risky than the dollar.
As the world reserve currency, the dollar is still the safest
investment for many people. So, flee the dollar into what?
Dear John,
You would flee the dollar into what is called "inflation hedges" as we did in the 70's with pounds and rands etc to protect the value of our money. That was a period of little economic growth and quite high inflation, which came to be called stagflation.
Real estate is a favourite inflation hedge especially that in prime positions; when all is settled at the end of the economic abberation, whether that is 5, 10 or 15 years, its still worth what it was in real terms. Zimbabwe had massive inflation, but using google go onto a website selling houses in Harare and you will see respectable dollar prices for the houses. The value has been retained for the owners across the period of inflation devastation.
Gold is another inflation hedge but can be risky; for instance in the early eighties when it was clear that the inflationary period was over, the gold price dropped sharply. Also some commodities and precious stones e.g. diamonds. Once PE ratios on stock markets have adjusted down sharply for the higher inflation levels there are a number of inflation hedge stocks e.g. miners and other stocks that seem to be thriving in the inflationery environment.
Rare antiques are another favourite - there's a world shortage and they'll get their value back in times of stability. I think you will have got the idea by now.
Richard
Last edited by John on Thu Apr 21, 2011 9:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Fixed quote

vincecate
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by vincecate »

John wrote: Nonetheless, when people talk about "fleeing the dollar," they
never seem to answer the question: "Flee the dollar into what?"
When paper money is losing value fast, you can flee into just about anything real and be better off. If the price of cans of tuna is going up 5% each month and the interest rate on your savings account is less than 80% per year you are better off investing in cans of tuna. When that happens it is called hyperinflation. We are not there yet, but we have all the preconditions set.

richard5za
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by richard5za »

vincecate wrote:If the price of cans of tuna is going up 5% each month and the interest rate on your savings account is less than 80% per year you are better off investing in cans of tuna.
Buying cans of tuna is not realistic because you have to sell them to get your money. Your personal savings and accumulation must be done on a disciplined business basis.
Let me recount a real life story of myself. I am not blowing my trumpet; I was very well advised by some caring and knowledgeable people.
I am not an American so some of this story may be culturally a bit different to your experience.
I finished all my studies in 1968 and secured employment with a successful British multinational group.
In 1971 the "big boss" said to me "Boy, do you own a house?"
I said "No, Sir"
He said "Well, I think inflation may increase and I am strongly advising you to buy a house. If you need to borrow money for the deposit then the comapny will help you"
"Thank you very much, Sir"
So I bought a middle class house on 1000 sq m of ground.
In 1973 the "big boss" said to me "Richard (I had graduated from boy to richard) I am very worried about inflation and I am organising for all management the opportunity to buy good quality antiques as an inflation hedge"
I bought the most magnificient 1695 long case clock (grandfather) It was a London maker and the case was exquisite. it was a business matter with business disciplines so when I sold it in 1987 for 12 times what I paid I told myself to be very grateful for the 14 years of wonderful stewardship.
In 1976 I sold my house for 2.4 times what I paid in 1971, and now with a wife and growing family bought a 450 sq m house on 4000 sq m of ground in a prime location.
In 1977 on advice from the "big boss" I bought 2 houses as an investment, on borrowed money. I bought them because of inflation as an inflation hedge.
By 1981 I was with a different employer. The chairman said to me "Richard, do you own shares in our company" I said "No, Sir, my investments are in property". He said "Property has had its day. I am strongly advising you to sell your property and buy shares in our company"
So in 1981 I sold my 2 investment houses at 2.6 times what i paid in 1977. The stock marlet im 1981 had a low PE ratio. I put 50% of my money into the company and the other 50% into other shares. By end 1984 my money had multiplied another 5 fold. I now had enough money to retire if I wanted.
In the 1990's I divided the property of my family home on 4000 sq m into 5 properties of 800 sq m, each with a luxury house, and by now was in the most desireable of locations, and made a lot of money.
I was now very busy with my career, having become CEO, and my funds were being handled by a finacial advisor. In 2006 I retired (for the first time) and took over my personal finacial management again, and in 2007 I sold all my stocks except for 5% which I put into gold and gold miners. That amount has done well and doubled.
So what i am trying to say is that it doesn't matter what the economic circumstances may be, you can flee what ever currency you want, put your money into hedges. commodities, property, whatever is the right decision for the circumstances.
But don't buy tins of tuna, or other theoretical stuff - you will need to sell them to get your money and you may not find buyers.
Best regards, Richard

vincecate
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by vincecate »

richard5za wrote:
vincecate wrote:If the price of cans of tuna is going up 5% each month and the interest rate on your savings account is less than 80% per year you are better off investing in cans of tuna.
Buying cans of tuna is not realistic because you have to sell them to get your money. Your personal savings and accumulation must be done on a disciplined business basis.
In hyperinflation the average person is just worried about having enough food to eat in the coming months. When there is hyperinflation the "average joe" does buy a lot of canned goods and dry food because this is better use of his money than just letting it sit around and drop in value. They know they will need the food eventually and it is much cheaper to buy it now. Food that can store is the ultimate safe investment for really troubled times.

I agree that if you want to be able to convert back to cash, cans of tuna are not ideal. If you have more money than needed to buy food for the next year you need to look for other things to put your money into. Many people won't need to look for other things. Interesting to hear what you did over the years.

vincecate
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by vincecate »

The US dollar is down 0.86% against other paper money so far today:

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html? ... =&w=&v=d12

The CRB is up 1.3%

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html? ... =&w=&v=d12

richard5za
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by richard5za »

Silver
Are there any ideas on what's happening to silver?
The gold bull run is intact and gold's behaviour over the past few years has been reasonably reliably predicted by a number of chartists. I suspect that gold is in the process of monetising in reaction to a weakening dollar, for probably this decade anyway, if not in the longer term
But the silver weekly chart is almost vertical! As I write it is a scratch below US $ 46 an ounze! What is going on?
Richard

richard5za
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by richard5za »

vincecate wrote:When there is hyperinflation the "average joe" does buy a lot of canned goods and dry food
Totally agreed.
I imagine the 'average joe' in the USA owns a house and has pension funding managed by someone else, and not much in the way of other net assets to lose or manage. He is neither an investor nor aspires to being an investor; so he doesn't need to think about 'inflation hedges' or 'has the PE ratio reached a level for the next bull run to commence? etc"
I was at high school in Zimbabwe and a few school chums still live there. Some ingenious schemes developed to cash in on the inflation. One was to buy a new car and keep the old one for 6 months and only then sell it - it fully paid off the debt on the new one!! A couple of guys became very rich using a similar technique on real estate. (As a piece of interesting but useless information: The British education in Zimbabwe was a very high standard and as a result about one third of my final class live in North America; a very good friend has won an amazing award from the American government for cancer research; the balance live in UK, Australia, New Zealand, and a few in South Africa - part of a devastating brain drain for Zimbabwe)
Richard

vincecate
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by vincecate »

richard5za wrote:Silver
Are there any ideas on what's happening to silver?
The gold bull run is intact and gold's behaviour over the past few years has been reasonably reliably predicted by a number of chartists. I suspect that gold is in the process of monetising in reaction to a weakening dollar, for probably this decade anyway, if not in the longer term
But the silver weekly chart is almost vertical! As I write it is a scratch below US $ 46 an ounze! What is going on?
Richard
I think silver is re-monetizing, and the dollar headed for hyperinflation. Gold had never completely de-monetized. So silver has more up-side. I invested in silver 2 years ago based on this re-monetization theory. Through most of history it is really silver coins that were the main money. Gold is nice for central banks to back paper money with, but it is really too valuable for most trade. I have made coins (see http://gold.ai) and a tiny 1/10th oz coin is about as small as you can do. At current prices this is over $150 for gold and $4.60 for silver. As inflation comes, gold will just be too valuable for most anything. So silver is more what the market needs. When paper money is cheating really badly the world needs an honest money. Silver is the only real contender.

My writing on this:
http://pair.offshore.ai/38yearcycle/
http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/
http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2010/10 ... ollar.html
Last edited by vincecate on Thu Apr 21, 2011 6:27 am, edited 1 time in total.

vincecate
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by vincecate »

John wrote:Gold and other commodities would skyrocket, so under this hypothetical scenario, those commodities would be even more risky than the dollar.
This logic is missing the point. If you believe we are on the path to that scenario, and that gold will skyrocket in that case, you should invest in gold, or silver, now.

Now John, you do not seem to buy that scenario. All it takes is for interest rates to go from 2% to 8% and the world falls apart. To stop inflation from increasing Volker had to have interest rates like 5% above the inflation rate for 3 years. If we get inflation now (which we seem to be) how do they keep things from spiraling out of control without bankrupting the Federal government on interest payments? Government debt is mostly short term now, so you can think of it as a variable rate loan. If interest rates are too low speculators will borrow money (from Fed indirectly through a bank, but causing more money printing) and buy real things drive up prices. Or people owning bonds will not roll them over, again resulting in money printing to cover the bonds as they come due. If interest rates are reasonable the government is broke. Can anyone see any possible way out of this trap?

I guess if you really believe in deflation, and think there is no risk of inflation, then you can say this will never happen. But at some point soon the inflation is going to be so obvious that you have to be deceiving yourself to deny it.

Drat. The BPI, or billion prices index, of US prices has been terminated. It was amazing to be able to watch inflation in real time. Sad to see this gone. Well, people will be able to deny inflation a bit longer without this.

http://bpp.mit.edu/

The dollar is making new lows against other paper money this morning. This is "breaking through technical support" and so might indicate more dropping.

http://quotes.ino.com/chart/index.html? ... &w=&v=dmax

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