Financial topics

[Witchiepoo]

Of course everything will fail. It has to.

I see it as a challenge. Pay attention to what's going on, don't count on anyone else to save your ass, and make the best of whatever situation you find yourself in.

I'm not losing any sleep, and I'd be willing to bet that most Xers aren't either. We've always expected our lives to suck, and we're used to dealing with it without freaking out. That's why you need us, John, whether you like it or not.

[browner55]

Bill Cara has a financial blog that puts out daily commentary. Here was is latest:

"I think we can finally say that this week represented the Trade of the Generation, which is to Sell bonds and Buy Gold/Goldminers. Today for bonds -- before the close -- could be a major sell.

If there is a trader in the universe who has bought US treasuries for reasons of income rather than panic/safe haven, then there won’t be a second. How would anybody expect to make money in the 5-year Treasury yielding 2.09%? The 10-year yielding 3.39% and the 30-year yielding 3.97% reflect only the ridiculous prices as traders have panicked from other assets.

The $XAU goldminers index hit a high of 209 in March-08. Eight months later, the index was often in the 64 to 72 range. GG yesterday closed at 18.62. In late September it was double that. Within a year, this stock will likely be at least +100% higher than the close yesterday."

I find it interesting that he call his trade the "Trade of the Generation." My guess is that even though he appears to be a very well educated & informed (not to mention successful) individual, the principal of maximum ruin will apply and his "Trade of the Generation" will be a loser.

[Matt1989]

We're only 130 points off of our 2002 low. Pass that and we're at the lowest DJIA level since 1997!

[mark]

I saw on "The Nightly Business Report" on PBS that the S & P 500 closed today at the lowest level since 1997.

[mannfm11]

The SPX took out its 2002 lows and is within striking distance of the 1996 July low. That is the last elbow in the chart until you go back to 1994 where it first broke out of the 3000-4000 range. The mania has to be wiped out first then lets see what is left. I am pretty good at market rhythm and this move is going to be a repeat of the one coming out of early September. We just went past the 15th of the month, which tells me we probably have hell for another month. In any case, the September move was 1/3 of the market and 4000 points. This move will be 1/3 of the market or 4000 points. 1/3 of the market is about 3200 points and we started in the 9600 range. The sharp rebound labels this a wave 3 most likely so we could go down 6000 points or 50%. People don't believe it.

I wouldn't get to hot on gold until this market bottoms. The fictions of what caused the last depression are playing out right now, as they stream people across the stage talking the same game over and over again. They confuse effects with causes. They don't realize the establishment of the Federal reserve, extention of massive credit, corporations using excessive leverage caused the great depression, not trade sanctions, tight money, tax increases and a myriad of other things. In fact, the actions they propose today caused the great Depression, all the coins in the fuse box to quote Minsky.

I watched the CNBC after hours discussion tonight. This is the closest i have seen Gary Shilling to being near bullish in a long time. He isn't too bullish about stocks though, or at least wouldn't admit it. The other guy took the idea that people were crowding into bonds as the bottom. The first thing that happened last year was people crowded into treasuries, the t-bill rates going below 3%. The Fed hasn't needed to cut rates since this thing started as rates have cut themselves. One guy proposed intentional inflation. For how long? The minute you stop inflating something like this, it deflates, as the end game has appeared. The dollar and all paper currency would collapse inside of 90 days if they took his advice.

One of you guys boasted how the Xers were prepared for this. You guys, at least most of you, haven't seen so much as an economic hickup in the past 20 years. I never felt the 1991 recession was as bad as the ones in the 1970's, but that might be because the last half of the 1980's was so rough in the Texas real estate and it was just more of the same. We are all going to get baptized by fire here, as I don't believe most of us can deal with what is coming down the pike. I figured out that they are claiming something on the order of a $13 trillion to $15 trillion GDP. I don't buy the idea that household income is about $125,000. It appears to me this includes the $5.5 trillion we borrowed, meaning real GDP is more like $8 trillion. This is going to wipe out a lot of the world economy if my suspicions are true.

[mannfm11]

Isn't it amazing how fast the rest of the world blew a fuse? If they hadn't been using imported dollars to issue their own currencies off of, the US wouldn't have been sapped so dry of jobs. We rebuilt all you starving SOB's and never got a dime out of any of you. We should have let the Nazis eat all of you. The Japanese mentioned having the US borrow in yen. Japan would collapse before the sun came up because there is nothing there to support sovereign credit. I am not much of a consumer, but many Americans hocked their houses to buy crap so you Europeans and Chinese could have a job. What the hell do you think China has been doing? You think those people that work for 2 cents an hour are saving all that money? No, they aren't. Instead, the Chinese government confiscates all the dollars and issues yuan against them. So indirectly the dollar debt is the circulating medium on China, so they never really have to spend dollars and the people are deprived of their international buying power. Ditto all the rest of the world. Russia supposedly had X trillion dollars 6 months ago. Now they teeter on collapse? What they really had was foreign reserves so they could have a money supply and now have a money supply and no play money. I would challenge you to go to the Federal Reserve data and show me who has all these dollars they have printed?

There seems to be some confusion to who got looted. When they started Bretton Woods, the US had the entire world productive capacity. We were sold out by a group of international bankers, first charged with rebuilding our former enemies then with floating their money. I believe the US would change shoes with anyone in the world if they wanted to baton of being the reserve money of the world. They don't because this American credit has brought the only prosperity there could be to the world and who wants their lives looted away by their bankers?

[Matt1989]

John, you've been beat!

[malleni]

Mannfm11,
Fine.
In your other comments on this forum it looks that you know quite well what happened on the stock market, but here, I could see some really strange "comments" in my opinion,.
Are these insolent and arrogant comments, such because of lack of knowledge or just intentionally so - I do not know.

Anyway, I do expect this kind of "explanations" and as I remember you like to see just what you - like to see.
In the other words - the reality for you looks like - should be just "reality" you see (and want to see).
(It was exactly the same when you discuss FED paper on the another topic... You do NOT want to see (and comment) the diagrams from now days (fig.5.) - but rather the old one (fig.3) which explained 30-ties... AND thae you tried "with your words" to explain "similarity" from 30-ties to the now days...?!
That is not a big problem with it, but it started to be quite strange because you try to "explain" situation NOW - with old diagram, despite you have the correct newer one (at least until may 2003).)


Now again - the same story...
BTW, you using quite spread period of time as well as many of different events, as well as too much private "understandings" of history.
Never mind - on all of those is possible to give you an answer which is NOT based on the some "theory" but on the facts.

Isn't it amazing how fast the rest of the world blew a fuse? If they hadn't been using imported dollars to issue their own currencies off of, the US wouldn't have been sapped so dry of jobs.
....

I am afraid that I do not understand this meaning.
Hopefully, you do not mind:
- that all other nations were (are) just idiots who can not go, eat, laugh, suffer, think, produce, - without paper currency from the United States of America...???
- that "import" of the paper in exchange for real work and commodities is a wonderful job - and people, companies and states around the World just crowded to "get one" such from USA?

Obviously - you refer to 2WW...

We rebuilt all you starving SOB's and never got a dime out of any of you. We should have let the Nazis eat all of you.
....

In your private view on the World and history - everything is possible...
...Even that USA - went in 2WW just because it "love Allies" and "hate the Nazis"...
Obviously you believe that USA did NOT earned anything on this events?
(I would not be surprised if you are saying that you believe in the Santa Claus too...)


It is for everybody clear that wars are - bad...!
Is it?
Yeah. If you are hit by one...
In other case, you can even earn 100 TIMES money you "put" in the war industry.
I am sure that you know it, but in stead to explain again things for you - I let Major General Smedley Butler to explain it for you nicely:
http://www.ratical.org/ratville/CAH/warisaracket.html

He is definitely much more competent in "war questions" than probably anybody on this forum and he saying:
"WAR IS RACKET!"


...And, yes...
We are talking about 2WW.
USA was NOT hit by this war...
The establishment in the USA purposely pushed people in this war.
The final aim was - of course - to earn money.
(I you do not believe me - ask general Butler.)

Finally - you probably understand until now - that your assumption:
"We rebuilt all you starving SOB's and never got a dime out of any of you"
... is totally nonsense.


... Regarding Nazis...
It is true that Nazis made tremendous crime.
You probably think that Nazis were only on Germans and Austrians?
Actually not. And definitely NOT all nations!
Unfortunately, this extreme ideology existing even today in each country of the World... For sure also in the USA.
On the other way it seems that you believe that "Americans save Europe" from Nazis, and without USA - "the Nazis eat all us".

That is of course, another extremely nonsense.
First - USA (and Allies) indirectly (or directly) help fascist regimes to come on the power.
(This fact is never considerate in your "theories" even if Mr. Garet (which John referred on the site) - clearly explained that capitalists were VERY afraid of the communist Soviet as well as "the RED GERMANY"! (with right - since the communist party was very strong there in this time!)
He also mentioned couple times - that THIS DREAD - cause the bail out of Germany, as well as positioning of Hitler.
Those facts for you GD theorist - are obviously "not relevant".

So, the summary regarding Nazis:
- USA as strongest capitalist country (but even other "allies") quit debt of Germany - just because OWN REASONS! (Germany anyway was NOT in position to pay anything)
- USA (as well as other "allies") - HELP Hitler to take power because of "RED danger" from East.
- USA helped in fight against Hitler. (RESPECT!) But, USA was NOT only nation who fight against Hitler... Actually Communist Russians give the death punch on the Hitler Reich.

I think that further explanations here are not necessary.

The Japanese mentioned having the US borrow in yen. Japan would collapse before the sun came up because there is nothing there to support sovereign credit.
....

Obviously you jumped now on the another topic.
You are clearly irritated from this article:
http://atimes.com/atimes/Japan/JK19Dh01.html

... but I do not understand what you are expecting...?
They have not any thrust in the USA treasuries, as for sure all other countries of the World have the same "feeling" about USA treasuries.
Japanese economists just said that everybody already know.

They suggesting just a simple thing - which btw John and many GD theorist here - propagate frequently.
Namely - the creditor nations would like to protect own interest - NOT USA interest!
The interest of Japan and other creditor IS "strong dollar"! (John repetitively comment, that "dollar will stay strong" EVEN if state USA collapsed! The reason is - "foreigners" and their interests in dollar.

Since Japanese do not thrust US government (obviously), and do not believe that dollar is a "value" - they suggest only possibility which can perhaps defend their interests:
Namely, to cut off USA ability to "print" currency...
(... Which it (US government) diligently and obviously do - with all those bail outs of banks and fail companies - AND without money in Treasury!!!)

With simple words:
"Japanese trying to save the dollar!

The other story is if US government allowed it...?
I do not believe it.

I am not much of a consumer, but many Americans hocked their houses to buy crap so you Europeans and Chinese could have a job. What the hell do you think China has been doing? You think those people that work for 2 cents an hour are saving all that money? No, they aren't. Instead, the Chinese government confiscates all the dollars and issues yuan against them. So indirectly the dollar debt is the circulating medium on China, so they never really have to spend dollars and the people are deprived of their international buying power. Ditto all the rest of the world. Russia supposedly had X trillion dollars 6 months ago. Now they teeter on collapse? What they really had was foreign reserves so they could have a money supply and now have a money supply and no play money. I would challenge you to go to the Federal Reserve data and show me who has all these dollars they have printed?....

"...many Americans hocked their houses to buy crap so you Europeans and Chinese could have a job...."
Is it really necessary to "explain" this nonsense again?

"Instead, the Chinese government confiscates all the dollars and issues yuan against them."
What you are expecting?
To "issue" dollars in stead?
The all nations of the world were pressure in last couple decennials until today (I repeat - pressured) to have dollar because of the dollar "special position".
With this position USA is able to export its "surplus" of dollars.
USA simply "exporting" inflation to the other countries- because of the "dollar as reserve currency".
The other nations are forced to inflate too - otherwise their currency would be destroyed for one or the other way. (I mean with or without military!)
Otherwise here is good article with more detailed explanation:
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... p=918#p918
That is not at all so strange that other nations have big problem with dollar...
You could NOT miss last huge wave of inflation over complete World? It was not quite one year ago?
How you can imagine that inflation hitting every nation of the Planet - at the same time...
(Probably, it was not at all strange for you...???... Quite "normal"?..... )

Generally, since USA would not to stop "printing" ("export" is not going well today...) - and do not want to change its monopoly position in the currency system and other nations are aware of the situation around (Japanese were already clear about it!) - we are heading to the soon monetary system collapse.

Moreover - regardless what you "believe" - USA will NEVER "change shoes with anyone" ... (Of course not - of own accord...)
Please, give to me just simple logical explanation for this - offer.
Nobody (I really mean NOBODY!) - do not abandon monopoly - if it is NOT force to do it!
USA is ready to fight to defend it!!!
AND it would not be the first time.


If you would like to know - "how much in percentage" US government "printed" in the last couple decades - you can try to count what you were able to buy 10 years ago for some amount of dollars?
... or you can see even some diagrams I put in former discussion regarding gold and dollars:
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... &start=460

...
I would challenge you to go to the Federal Reserve data and show me who has all these dollars they have printed?

You probably - kidding...?
As I said - at March 23, 2006, the US Federal Reserve has ceased publishing M3, the most reliable indicator of the amount of USDs circulating in the world.
The Fed has also ceased publishing a number of less important indicators (such as the amount of EuroDollars, large-denomination time deposits, and repurchase agreements) which could have been used to calculate M3 on the basis of other aggregates.

How you expecting now to answer your question?
Anyway some informations - sometimes are available... (that is exactly what FED wish!)
You can find on the:
Exhibit 6: Foreign holdings of US Treasury securities as of August 2008 (US$ billions): total holdings, year-on-year
% change, and year-on-year absolute change.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Eco ... 3Dj01.html

It is obviously that here also you can find distrust to the USA authorities (with reason of course):
"...We observe that the biggest increase came from offshore banking centers (the UK, Switzerland, Luxembourg, and Caribbean banking centers). This tells us little because anyone may transact through such centers. ..."
(Even authorities of the United State of America!!!)


I hope that I answered and clarify all your questions and obscurities.

Sincerely
malleni

[Witchiepoo]

One of you guys boasted how the Xers were prepared for this.

Boasted? Hardly. I merely stated a fact. Xers are the "no fear" generation, which is a valuable quality in times of crisis.

[John]

Deal of the month: Buy a toaster, get a free bank!



(http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11 ... free-bank/)