Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
John
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

Dear Jim,
JimZ wrote: > OK John, you're scaring me a little bit with the Cassandra
> comparison.
Well, this whole experience over the last few years has turned me
into a very dark, gloomy person, as is pretty obvious to everyone.
I've had to deal on a daily basis with a logical contradiction: I'm
the only sane person in an insane world, but even holding that
thought in my mind is a sign of insanity. I'm very aware of that
contradiction.

I will say this: If I look at the last few years less emotionally and
more objectively, then the mythical Cassandra scenario has not
unfolded in the worst way that I had feared. I used to get e-mail
messages from people who were furious with me and called me all kinds
of names. Some messages accused me of trying to precipitate a crisis.
None of them was directly threatening, but the tone of some of them
was very strident.

I had feared that those kinds of messages would only get worse, but
they haven't. In fact, those kinds of messages have really stopped
completely in the last year. I assume that's because the severity of
the economic crisis has forced those would-be message senders to
reassess their views.

So that's on the plus side. On the other hand, the real crisis
hasn't begun yet, and Cassandra's worst troubles began after the
crisis. There's literally no possibility whatsoever I or my web site
could be the CAUSE of any crisis, but it's possible for some
unbalanced person to conclude in his own troubled mind that a crisis
is somehow my fault. That, I believe, is the real message behind the
Cassandra story.

In one way, I take after my mother. She was very religious, and
always described herself as a fatalistic person. She would always say
that God would take her when her time was up - not before and not
after. I'm not a religious person, but I have a similar fatalistic
view about the world and myself -- whatever's going to happen is going
to happen, and there's nothing you can do about it.
JimZ wrote: > But I don't see you getting backlash given that you accurately
> laid out a scenario that is unfolding just as you said. And even
> if people do want to smack the "prophets" I would hope there are a
> lot more highly visible people who would be targets than you.
> (I.e. I personally would like to slap Kramer when I listen to his
> "Mad Money" blather.)
Here I strongly agree with you. This past week has been a good
example, as the public has turned viciously against Blagojevich and
Madoff for things that might well have been ignored just a couple of
years ago. The public in general is going to become angrier and
angrier, and financial scandals are going to multiply like rabbits.

Sincerely,

John

Matt1989
Posts: 170
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 12:30 am

Re: An interesting graph

Post by Matt1989 »

John wrote:An interesting graph, showing total US debt as a % of GDP since 1916:

Image

John
What do the gray bars show?

StilesBC
Posts: 121
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 9:44 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by StilesBC »

"The public in general is going to become angrier and
angrier, and financial scandals are going to multiply like rabbits."


Where there's a cockroach there are cockroaches.

In one way, I take after my mother. She was very religious, and
always described herself as a fatalistic person. She would always say
that God would take her when her time was up - not before and not
after. I'm not a religious person, but I have a similar fatalistic
view about the world and myself -- whatever's going to happen is going
to happen, and there's nothing you can do about it.


This is one thing I have a big problem with. People who equate depression or even deflation with some notion of "armageddon" or "end of days" biblical nonsense. I suppose if I grew up being told that at some point the streets would run red with lava and Judgement would be passed, I'd be inclined to this perspective also. Thankfully, I wasn't.

I've had a very negative view on society in general for many years now. I only started studying economics a few years back, and not surprisingly came to the same conclusion right off the bat - quickly seeing how society and the economy are one and the same. But I don't consider myself a negative person. Perhaps knowing that once the First Turning comes, I'll still have half my life ahead of me allows me this perspective (I'm 26).

Regardless, I don't see what is about to happen as a negative per se. I see the valueless, materialist society I've known all my life as the negative. And this is all simply the cure. I think I managed to express this best in one of my recent blog posts: http://futronomics.blogspot.com/2008/12 ... ssion.html
Also keep in mind that this will not be "the end of the world," or "armageddon." We will not go back to living in caves and hunting and gathering for survival. The world will still go 'round and 'round. The same places will be beautiful. Children will still laugh. There will still be gatherings of friends and family for weddings, birthdays, anniversaries, etc. Making love will still feel good, food will still taste good, fresh air will still smell good. If anything, we will learn to appreciate these things more, as our obsessive materialism is what is really under attack.
So I say this to John and others here. Let's look at this situation as a cure to a society deprived of the little things that make life good: Time with family, laughing with friends, trying to craft something by hand (I've always wanted to try making my own furniture), doing your own garden work, cooking more often, etc. I think we've become so obsessed with our various meaningless professions (how many people actually create something for a living? - I don't) and with trying to put ourselves on a pedestal in front of others (I'm guilty, even if it's unconscious) that we have forgotten what is really important.

Having this point of view has helped me cope with the disaster unfolding before my eyes. Even if my negativity does tend to seep through on occasion, I can usually find something good to say "on the other hand."

Cheers,

StilesBC

freddyv
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Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2008 4:23 am
Location: Oregon, USA
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Re: Financial topics

Post by freddyv »

StilesBC wrote:This is one thing I have a big problem with. People who equate depression or even deflation with some notion of "armageddon" or "end of days" biblical nonsense. I suppose if I grew up being told that at some point the streets would run red with lava and Judgement would be passed, I'd be inclined to this perspective also. Thankfully, I wasn't.

I've had a very negative view on society in general for many years now. I only started studying economics a few years back, and not surprisingly came to the same conclusion right off the bat - quickly seeing how society and the economy are one and the same. But I don't consider myself a negative person. Perhaps knowing that once the First Turning comes, I'll still have half my life ahead of me allows me this perspective (I'm 26).

Regardless, I don't see what is about to happen as a negative per se. I see the valueless, materialist society I've known all my life as the negative. And this is all simply the cure. I think I managed to express this best in one of my recent blog posts: http://futronomics.blogspot.com/2008/12 ... ssion.html
Also keep in mind that this will not be "the end of the world," or "armageddon." We will not go back to living in caves and hunting and gathering for survival. The world will still go 'round and 'round. The same places will be beautiful. Children will still laugh. There will still be gatherings of friends and family for weddings, birthdays, anniversaries, etc. Making love will still feel good, food will still taste good, fresh air will still smell good. If anything, we will learn to appreciate these things more, as our obsessive materialism is what is really under attack.
So I say this to John and others here. Let's look at this situation as a cure to a society deprived of the little things that make life good: Time with family, laughing with friends, trying to craft something by hand (I've always wanted to try making my own furniture), doing your own garden work, cooking more often, etc. I think we've become so obsessed with our various meaningless professions (how many people actually create something for a living? - I don't) and with trying to put ourselves on a pedestal in front of others (I'm guilty, even if it's unconscious) that we have forgotten what is really important.

Having this point of view has helped me cope with the disaster unfolding before my eyes. Even if my negativity does tend to seep through on occasion, I can usually find something good to say "on the other hand."

Cheers,

StilesBC
A good post and outlook. Tough times tend to expose and build character and make us appreciative of what we have. I like to ask people now and then, "What is the most important thing in your life." They usually say something like their children or their job or friends or some such thing, all of which are important, but then I'll say, "What about the air that you breathe?" Usually I get sort of a blank look back and an "Oh, yeah, I guess that is important." An entire world exists so that we may also exist; I think we should appreciate it.

Too many of us go through life forgetting that our very existence as sentient beings is itself a miracle and is something we should not waste for even a second. Life and the things and people in it are special because it is all so very fleeting. Even this catastrophe happening right before our very eyes can be a blessing and we may find that just as people lived through the depression we will live through our hard times and come out the better for it.

-- Fred

freddyv
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Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2008 4:23 am
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Re: Financial topics

Post by freddyv »

...and now, back to armageddon:

This article is actually titled, "Financial Armageddon"

http://www.financialarmageddon.com/2008 ... worse.html

The original article is at
http://www.reuters.com/article/Finance0 ... HT20081112

It features comments by John Whitehead, former Goldman Sachs chairman.

--Fred

freddyv
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Re: Financial topics

Post by freddyv »

Sam Zell, "property mogul", and owner of The Tribune Co., which recently filed for bankruptcy, states that this whole problem will be over soon and that it was basically caused by Blackerry Owners who have too much information...AHAHAHAHA!!!

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28221716

"We are living through our first Blackberry recession where, literally, information is instantly disseminated around the world and people, in effect, respond to it, perhaps, often without any particular caution or attention." --Sam Zell

Yes, it's just another recession and it was caused by Blackberries. :-)

--Fred
Last edited by freddyv on Mon Dec 15, 2008 11:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7477
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote: I had feared that those kinds of messages would only get worse, but
they haven't. In fact, those kinds of messages have really stopped
completely in the last year. I assume that's because the severity of
the economic crisis has forced those would-be message senders to
reassess their views.

So that's on the plus side. On the other hand, the real crisis
hasn't begun yet, and Cassandra's worst troubles began after the
crisis. There's literally no possibility whatsoever I or my web site
could be the CAUSE of any crisis, but it's possible for some
unbalanced person to conclude in his own troubled mind that a crisis
is somehow my fault. That, I believe, is the real message behind the
Cassandra story.

The odds of anything like that happening are extremely unlikely in my view.

On the other hand, a supervisor who is being forced to hand out pink slips to a large number of people who already don't like him for one reason or another needs to be worried. One reason is because all of those people know exactly where to find him within the physical range of their normal daily habits. People who "need" to find someone on the Internet will go to where they know they will find that person within the physical range of their normal daily habits--on the Internet--and send a nasty message, or maybe, for example, post a bogus hyperinflationary argument from a clueless South American commie in order to provoke a reaction from somebody.

Anybody who really doesn't like you based on reading this website probably doesn't give your message much credence anyway. Therefore, any aggression is also unlikely to reach beyond the nasty messages or snarky forum posts.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

John
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60 Minutes

Post by John »

60 Minutes is teasing a segment that will begin around 7:50 pm ET (probably
6:20/7:20 pm in other time zones) that says that the economy is going to
get much worse in 2009 and 2010 because of a second wave of
mortgage defaults.

John

John
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Re: 60 Minutes

Post by John »

John wrote:60 Minutes is teasing a segment that will begin around 7:50 pm ET (probably
6:20/7:20 pm in other time zones) that says that the economy is going to
get much worse in 2009 and 2010 because of a second wave of
mortgage defaults.

John
I really have to laugh at this 60 Minutes segment. They're talking
about Adjustable Rate Mortgages and Liar Loans -- things I've been
writing about for a couple of years.

** ABX Housing mortgage default loan index dives faster
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 13#e070213


However, not to worry: In the final moments of the segment, it's
revealed that the stock market has hit bottom. I guess
"capitulation" occurred when I wasn't looking.


Here's a transcript and video of the segment:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/12/ ... 6112.shtml

John

John
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Re: An interesting graph

Post by John »

Matt1989 wrote:What do the gray bars show?
Recessions.

John

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