Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
MarshAviator
Posts: 53
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2008 3:40 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by MarshAviator »

I told someone I work with today that the official P/E ratio had
skyrocketed to 60. He said, "Oh yeah, you're a doom and gloom guy.
You ought to take a break."
It is like watching a slow motion train wreck. The markets have so much historic optimism, it is obvious that so many peoples attitudes are based on the last 20 years (maximum) experience.
These bulls (and other optimist) just CAN'T imagine anything else.
It is easy to see that once a crash finally happens, then many of these people will become perma-bears.
This really supports GD theory, in that personal experience is driving the decision process,
even the vast history of the great depression is dismissed as "a old paradigm" , now irrelevant.

Else where on this forum, it has been stated that earnings and P/E have no bearing on stock prices.
I guess the game is buy/sell profit only. After all only day traders ever buy stocks.

Apparently pension funds and other institutions only buy bonds?

My personal guess at this point is both the media and newsletters will use 3Q 2008 earnings until actual's improve.
Wonder if they have any idea it will be a long long time?

freddyv
Posts: 305
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2008 4:23 am
Location: Oregon, USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by freddyv »

Here is a fantastic white paper by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/files/do ... -paper.pdf

It is one of the best, most balanced pieces I have read so far on our current economic problems. And if that's not enough reason to read it, I offer this quote, by the author's father, J. Irving Weiss, which made me LOL:
In the 1930s, I was tracking the facts and the numbers as they were being released — to figure
out what might happen next. I was an analyst, and that was my job. So I remember them well.

“Years later, economists like Milton Friedman and my young friend Alan Greenspan looked back
at those days to decipher what went wrong. They concluded that it was mostly the
government’s fault, especially the Federal Reserve’s. They developed the theory that the next
time we’re on the brink of a depression, the government can nip it in the bud simply by acting
sooner and more aggressively.

“Bah! Those guys weren’t there back then. When I first went to Wall Street, Friedman was in
junior high and Greenspan was in diapers.
Greenspan in Diapers...AHAHAHA!
The true roots of the 1930s bust were in the 1920s boom, the Roaring Twenties. That’s when
the Fed gave cheap money to the banks like there was no tomorrow. That’s why the banks
loaned the money to the brokers, the brokers loaned it to speculators, and the speculation
created the stock market bubble. That was the real cause of the crash and the depression! Not
the government’s “inaction” in the 1930s!

By 1929, our economy was a house of cards. It didn’t matter which cards we propped up or
which ones we let fall. We obviously couldn’t save them all. So no matter what we did, it was
going to come down anyway. The longer we denied that reality and tried to fight it, the worse it
was for everyone. The sooner we accepted it, the sooner we could get started on a real
recovery.

That last sentence I agree with totally and that is why I now point out to anyone who will listen that we NEED the stock market to go lower; so we can get it priced right and begin to deal with reality, for a change.

--Fred

aedens
Posts: 4753
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/2009/04/s ... arket.html

Perception of reality appears to be very soon.

http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/posts/200 ... the_dollar

Even when they move forward we are sleeping at the switch.
They are moving forward and we are where in there concern?
Need less to say trade is not a issue when we have nothing they really want.

The U.S. crisis reflects regulatory problems in the U.S. and innovative financial products that ignored basic economic rules,'' former Chinese central bank deputy governor Wu Xiaoling told a financial conference in Beijing recently." "The U.S. crisis today would be China's tomorrow if financial products such as securitization are introduced without proper risk-control measures.'' Chinas' cautious attitude, government banks, and regulatory framework have helped China to restrict its losses and write-downs from the credit-market crisis to less than 1 percent of the massive global total. The feasibility of bank nationalizations, closer regulation, and banning certain types of transactions, such as derivatives, which carry excessive risk are all lessons which can be learned from China. Banks, financial companies, and the wealthy should not be allowed to unload their bad debts onto ordinary workers and taxpayers. It's sheer madness to allow them to transfer a trillion dollars from workers and taxpayers to themselves.
The US has become increasingly frustrated by what it says is the gutting of its proposals to cut farm tariffs. Rich WTO members such as the EU, Japan and Switzerland, and poorer countries such as India, Indonesia and the Philippines, have sought to protect a wide range of agricultural products from tariff cuts. Susan Schwab, US trade representative, said such exemptions would defeat the object of the talks, to create trade flows. “As we went through the layers of loopholes . . . we discovered that a couple of our trading partners were more interested in loopholes than market access,” she said. Pascal Lamy, WTO director-general, said the failure would “send out a strong negative signal for the future of the world economy amidst the danger of a resurgence of protectionism.

They are moving forward... we are eating our capital base to systemic malinvestments which will "are" unfolding.
There seed money is for revenue based infrasture trades of contract. Our basis is pointless since time is a function of reality
and permagrouth is led us where. The lack of contract and transparency to capital decisions to date have told the taxpayer what to date?

Economic gravity apply's in all cases. The context is simple, They are expanding intra markets and we are malinvesting resources leveraged to impossible claims on future labor claims that are not there. There math apply's and ours is pumping another bubble.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... RppMJqgURA
And we have watched it since the 80's culminate to our fixated closure still unfolding. Policy does echo those in the population who believe their interests are best served by living at the expense of others. I think John's observation's are correct to the trigger mechanisn and not a single event other than time which is passing. The effective and proper capital management is leading us in the direction we need to prepare for are being slowly left behind. I guess we will get there but overall the focus is still rather myopic to investments
in proper context to value. We released our numbers and just on that alone things are and will wind down which will be evident. Product lines are clipped to reflect the reality's we must prepare for.
Fear and praise for the new age. Emptor
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009- ... 207316.htm
http://greattrades.blogspot.com/

mark
Posts: 33
Joined: Tue Oct 28, 2008 6:48 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by mark »

Here's a nice chart to give perspective of where we may be on our journey to the bottom....

http://dshort.com/charts/bears/four-bears-large.gif

The Grey Badger
Posts: 176
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 11:50 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by The Grey Badger »

And someone should add an advertisements for handbaskets - cheap - for us to ride in.

MarshAviator
Posts: 53
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2008 3:40 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by MarshAviator »

Friday, April 17, 2009
The Visible Hand
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/
"
This report examines information indicating that the U.S. government has surreptitiously intervened in the American Stock Market."

Now to see if Goldman Sachs can be tied to this?

An interesting consideration is can government policy and actions delay a generational crash (but not stop)?
This having been debated somewhat in post on this section of the forum.

It appears that had the surreptitious intervention not taken place, then the U.S. equity markets would have crashed.
How long can this go on, inquiring minds want to know.

More important, how will the public react when it comes to light, that fortunes have been made, under the guise of "helping to stabilize the economy" while people loose their homes, are unemployed, maybe starve, I smell tar being heated, feathers gathered.

freddyv
Posts: 305
Joined: Sat Oct 04, 2008 4:23 am
Location: Oregon, USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by freddyv »

MarshAviator wrote:
Friday, April 17, 2009
The Visible Hand
http://zerohedge.blogspot.com/
"
This report examines information indicating that the U.S. government has surreptitiously intervened in the American Stock Market."

Now to see if Goldman Sachs can be tied to this?

An interesting consideration is can government policy and actions delay a generational crash (but not stop)?
This having been debated somewhat in post on this section of the forum.
I believe that government intervention can FORESTALL an economic crash and can redirect the dynamics of society in an Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged manner. What I mean is that it is possible to reinflate the bubble once its starts leaking but that this will only make the problem worse in the long run.

To me this is all very simple: what made the Greatest Generation great were the challenges and hardships they faced and if we do not allow this generation to face any we will likely fail as a society and the potential of America will be wasted. Perhaps we will one day return to greatness but history suggests otherwise.

My guess, though, is that the American spirit will come through once again and override the tendancy of those in our society who want life only to be easy and never to be challenging.

--Fred

MarshAviator
Posts: 53
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2008 3:40 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by MarshAviator »

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Taxpayers are increasingly exposed to losses and the government is more vulnerable to fraud under Obama administration initiatives that have created a federal bank bailout program of "unprecedented scope," a government report finds.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Bank-bail ... .html?.v=8

Now we have embezzle^2.
This is a new twist on the Great Depression I, with the Great Depression II, use the bailout money to make your personal fortune.

Unprecedented Scope, Must be some Gen-X go getter, with Boomer Managers who are running this.

PxQ++
Posts: 2
Joined: Tue Apr 21, 2009 2:02 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by PxQ++ »

Hello everyone

Long story how I happened to wander in here, so I won't bother

Tyler's outstanding blog work at Zero Hedge seems to be turning up every where I go now
If there is some depressing news anywhere in the world, he seems to find it. :cry:

Should you desire an even more pessimistic perspective
spend some time reading a few of Hypertiger's posts, on this (slightly) unusual blog
Hyper is either brilliant, or delusional (I can't tell which, but I'm hoping for the latter) :D

http://hypertiger.blogspot.com/

aedens
Posts: 4753
Joined: Tue Nov 04, 2008 4:13 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aedens »

PxQ++ wrote:Hello everyone

Long story how I happened to wander in here, so I won't bother
Should you desire an even more pessimistic perspective
spend some time reading a few of Hypertiger's posts, on this (slightly) unusual blog
Hyper is either brilliant, or delusional (I can't tell which, but I'm hoping for the latter) :D

http://hypertiger.blogspot.com/
hat tip

thanks for the info link when time permits.
real life kinda gets in the way...
SWF are soaking up vanilla money as Tyler has
been spot on to volatility and volume issues as such.
The guys here in older post's have articulated great links
and arcticles to the events we see predicated
Last edited by aedens on Sat Dec 15, 2012 8:30 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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