Higgenbotham wrote:If an industrial arrangement like the US is undergoing a Roman style collapse, the first signal will probably be that, during this crisis period, the energy problem that has been building for 40 years will not be solved, or not solved in a way that benefits central authority. It could be that no solution is found, or that a solution is found but there is no ability or will to implement it, or that a solution is found but the solution is decentralized and there is no way for a central authority to have any control or involvement. I suspect it will be the latter. Also, before food production itself breaks down, I suspect the war or disease vectors will gain the upper hand first and the population will be cut that way. If that's the case, the population reduction will probably hit more "food eaters" and fewer "food producers".
We have probably reached a technological/energy peak for now, but the decline is going to be slow and take a long time, certainly more than this crisis period, and even the next crisis period 80 years away or so. And the next one, 160 years away.
"The West" is in "decline", which simply means that Faustian civilization is completing it's last stages, the transition from active growing culture to static/declining civlization. I think the point now is to maintain the key ideas of the West, such as individuality, etc. What we have from the West is pretty much all we are going to get. We could even get a new, better "High/First turning", but I think that is unlikely, although quite possible. Reality is a funny thing.
It's some sort of 1200-2000 year cycle/wave, recognized most recently by Spengler. It's fun to look at, though.
No one thinks it exists, just like no one thinks that Turnings/Generational Dynamics exists.