In Barron's roundtable this week, Marc Faber says "The S&P won't revisit the March 2009 low of 666 in nominal terms ever again."John wrote:Dear Freddy,
This analysis is absolutely correct, and in fact it's a mathematicalfreddyv wrote: > Now let's consider a worst case scenario: In this case we would
> see a severe double-dip that once again hurts earnings but with no
> more budget cuts available for corporations as they have already
> laid off everyone they can afford to and the bailouts are no
> longer possible given the mood of the country. So in this case we
> see earnings at $20 for the worst 12 months (I can actually
> imagine much worse but let's go with this) and a trough P/E of 6
> as investors lose all faith in a stock market that has lost them
> money for over 10 years and an economy that only seems to be able
> to grow debt and unemployment. This gives us an S&P 500 at a low
> of 120, about 10% of where we stand now.
certainty. S&P 500 = 120 is correct.
John
I have a feeling he will be eating these words by the end of the year, if not much earlier.