Financial topics

[aedens]

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RL32492.pdf
That was a short cut to ideological conclusions to GD. What i mean is arcing connections and yes there are contentions that apply indeed to the 3 periods I forwarded. Ideological connection "turning's" links can appear as when germany did such and such to social parameters to educate a better soldier and Lincoln did what to mirror that here. Lord Acton's letter of regard to General Lee as a linchpin to the ideological climate conveyed that element of State control and clearly they knew the consequnces to temperal level of regard. Those are GD foot prints also. I need to brush up on a few articles but it is better than Isaak Ozimov ploy that economist do try to torture for Harry Seldons sake as to mass calculation's. I just focus on the GD net effect's and let it run where it does. If we bend a trend we did no harm. Anyway, we picked up something along the way in the toolbox. Bent of mind is no historical oddity even from Athen's.

The experiment of relying on a world body as the guarantor of peace had now gone through three iterations: the League of Nations, the UN during the Cold War, and the UN after the Cold War. Each had proved a failure.

I still look at regional problems in a GD context to insert as anyone else does the complications. The pillars are sometimes Abraham's seed can be vapid in some area's but what else is new under the sun. The gate keepers know this all to well but if they forget this where can we go on this quest called innovation. John's framework is very suitable for markers to paint the arena of todays news. Some say eh.. 50/50 on some pressure points developing. I rather unlike that position of coin toss attitude as such. http://www.islam-watch.org/iw-new/ That link is interesting and I read it off and on as it is.
Generational Dynamics analyzes history through the flow of generations, and identifies generational patterns that repeat in all places and times in history. This has provided a methodology that has proven very useful for analyzing and understanding historical events, but also for forecasting future trends.
http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/budget.php

"and this is in itself quite enough to show that any expectation of an essential change of regime through a change of party administration is illusory."

http://mises.org/story/3602
But Mises was well aware that pushing down interest rates to ever-lower levels would not solve the problem. He wrote,

Mises: "The wavelike movement affecting the economic system, the recurrence of periods of boom which are followed by periods of depression, is the unavoidable outcome of the attempts, repeated again and again, to lower the gross market rate of interest by means of credit expansion. There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved. "This wave may be it if the consumers wakes up and asserts sanity so they have no excuse either. What is clear and blatant is disconnect's and banal group regressions so many in Congress will go unfettered to justify there stoic way to pivot. We shall see if reason prevails. I do not think it will any time soon and many others do not either since the trend is clear to avarice unbraided.
http://www.lifecourse.com/assets/files/ ... istory.pdf

Make capitalism work better In their economic orientation, Millennials support government regulation without opposing businesses or markets.
Millennials have grown up in the shadow of Reaganomics. Their entire lifespan has coincided with the longest financial boom and perhaps the most robust era of economic expansion in American history—all predicated on deregulated markets, entrepreneurialism, and globalization. They know that markets work, and in high school and college they study how markets work in far greater depth than older Americans ever did. Time for clarity we the people.
I only raised my children to have a moral compass first and go from there they have. They understand socialism will fail and I told them where it did and why.
My Grandmother's sisters where murdered by the nazi In the Netherlands and my Mother inlaws people on the trail of tears and only survived since her Grandmother was spared since she married a French Missionary and even they where abused severly. My children clearly understand how all Goverments are and why less is better and there memory must never leave our family's mind.
http://lifecourse.com/assets/files/yes_we_can.pdf

[jwfid]

Hi everyone,

Don't read this if your looking for some information. This post is just a rant.

I didn't wake up to our problems until the Lehman's Brothers bankruptcy, but since then I have learned much. I guess you could have called me one of those retail herd stock investors. I thought I knew something, after all I read "Investor's Business Daily". Boy, was I wrong! What an idiot I was! Of course, I'm still an idiot, but at least not as much as I was.

Using the "blue pill - red pill" analogy from "The Matrix". I feel like I want to take the blue pill now after already taking the red pill and learning the truth. Oh well. (I've been reading the Zero Hedge and Futronomics blogs a lot these days). Good job Tyler and Matt.

I figure we came within a whisker of financial disaster about four times since Lehman went belly up (and one before, if I include Bear Stearns) and each time the fed, treasury, and industry was able to somehow delay the inevitable. When I heard TG's comments early this year (the one's after I believe he had been coached) concerning his plans toward restoring confidence (I believe this was just before Wells Fargo increased their guidance) I gave them (the fed, treasury and the financial industry) about a one-in-a-million chance of pulling it off.

Right now, I think the odds are about one-in-a-hundred. I cannot believe the success they have been having. I'm so glad I didn't try to short (never have and hopefully never will). However, even if they do pull off the upset and are somehow able to delay the inevitable a year or two like Greenspan did in 2002. They can't stop this train. The mountain is too steep. After all, we climbed it for 40 years. All we are doing is buying ourselves a double dip depression if everything works out for the best (and the second dip is gonna suck bad).

Government debt is growing like a weed. Interest rates have to climb if the debt is to be purchased, right? What about the real estate market and the associated CDO's? We haven't seen the end of this. The unemployment bomb is going off too (even if the government's number showed otherwise this week). Like I believe that! Also, P/E ratios have never been higher. The only reason they aren't any higher now is because of bank trading profits. The banks are like wolves feeding on the carcass that was once the economy. Are there any manufacturing companies actually making money?

I've been telling my friends I just want to bury my IRA's and 401k's in the backyard, but they just stare at me and ask me why. It's ok, 'cause nothin's gonna be alright!

Sorry for going on like that. But I do feel better.

Keep the good posts coming everyone.

Thanks John. I can't thank you enough. You do way too much, but at least I think I know the feeling.

Good luck everyone,

Joe

[mannfm11]

As you may have read some of my posts sprinkled around the internet since 2001 John, you are in good company with me. We have already been proven right, as either the concept of paper money has been totally destoryed or public finance is the current bubble and about to burst in the next few years. The idea that government debt and Chinese finance can be supported and believed to be real indefinitely is absurd. The beat goes on, as they reflate the auto bubble and the housing bubble, finding more even less qualified people to take the place of failed buyers of the past. The collapse has already happened and the seeds of revolution have been sowed as government and corporate insiders loot what remains of the system. We are entering into a 2 sided economy, public shareholders and wal mart workers versus Wall Street, connected unionized labor such as the UAW, corporate management and government. The problem here is the shareholders, which are quite often pensioners and the wal mart workers cannot support the looting of corporate American by the afformentioned groups any longer. They have sucked their own customers dry and will now loot the banking system for all the government can put into it. Right now it appears that maybe Sheila Bair is interested in getting stuff in the open while the rest of the group perfer to keep it opague so the looting can continue. 40 years ago it would have been considered a scandal for the Clintons to come out of office of the Presidency and stuff $100 million in their pockets over 8 years. Remember these guys had their defense fund because they were paupers in the white house. Delayed bribes is what we are talking about here. So much for politics.

This is my latest on the matter, as I have been reading what the next bombs to blow off are going to be. http://mannfm11.blogspot.com/2009/08/wh ... hoots.html. Also, I found this Andy Xie writing on Caijing that I reference in this post. For you that haven't read this article by Andy, it basically says what a longer term bomb Chinese real estate is and how the entire country will be permanently built out in just a few years. Their housing construction pace is well over 250% of what our bubble was on the peak and probably amounts to 15 million units per year based on unit size. They currently have about 22 billion square feet of housing under construction at this time. http://english.caijing.com.cn/2009-08-05/110220584.html

[mannfm11]

Joe you are still a minority. I opened the door yesterday to an Edward Jones broker. I immediately informed him I was one of the biggest bears in the US. He told me about some Washington Hospital revenue bonds yielding well over 5% tax free. I asked him why I would buy a junk bond? It went right by him, so I had to ask him why the bond was paying a junk bond yield if it was such a safe investment. Of course he couldn't tell me. Then I asked him about the marketability, which he replied you could sell them any time you wanted, which we have already found out is a lie. I put the odds at no better than 50/50 save some kind of currency collapse that these bonds default.

The employment figures were a outright lie. The green shoots are the unemployment claims are down to 550K. We didn't have an unemployment claim number that high for 2008 and the number riggers say the recession started in December 2007. The whole bunch of news about this recession is being made up by a bunch of Wall street academics, the same guys that said you buy and hold forever and make 10%. The SPX first hit the number we see today in February 1998, so for 11.5 years long term holders of the SPX have made well under 2% minus management fees. That means we will need 11.5 years of well over 10% to get even with what the claims are. Never in history has the stock market shown better than an inflation plus 1% return plus dividends when dividends have been 3% or less. If you take the 380 on the Dow and compound it by 1.04 to the 80th power you get 8758, which is roughly what the Dow would project out to using the 1929 top price and 80 years at 4% growth. 4% is roughly inflation plus 1%, based on the CPI. They really cannot prove the 9% return story, but instead take some bottom figure and work from there. The years you hear about are 1926, when the dow was in the 100 range or 1950, which was the inflation adjusted bottom of the market.

John likes the 10 year average earnings rate created by Robert Shiller who has an amazing history of SPX equivalent data on his Yale University site. I don't like earnings because they are rarely sustainable, but instead work from an average dividend point. Stocks were never financially priced by earnings, despite what is commonly indicated, as earnings have little value to the long term holder other than a source to pay a steam of income. They have more value to the insiders who loot corporations on an ongoing basis by not paying dividends, but instead to compensate ESOP's.

[reviresco]

In the new book “Snowball” about Warren Buffet, on page 141 is a mention about Ben Graham’s 1932 series of articles in Forbes titled “Is American Business worth more dead than alive?” in which he argues that the series of crashes since 1929 had driven the prices of stocks below their ready assets, an observation which is a cornerstone of value investing.

Were Graham to author a similarly titled series of articles today, however, he wouldn’t be noting a situation wherein the market is overlooking the values of companies and their assets, but might write with alarm about an atmosphere encouraging the demise of publicly traded corporations by shorting their stocks and using other methods to cause bankruptcy and trigger the Credit Default Swaps ostensibly written to insure the bonds and other instruments issued by that corporation.

With many corporate and municipal bonds and other instruments insured by financially nonviable entities (without the reserves or other wherewithal to pay the “policies” they underwrote), and many “policies” owned by “investors” other than the owners of the bonds and other instruments, and in many cases multiple “policies” from multiple insuring entities insuring the same instruments over and over, there is a disturbingly strong incentive to profit by bankrupting the target and collecting on the CDS rather than allowing the corporation or municipality to continue on.

While the Fed, SEC and Treasury have made commendable and significant steps in gaining control of the situation, especially on matching and canceling out existing swaps and new rules and regulations written regarding swaps going forward, they still have an important decision to make regarding the Trillions of dollars in swaps outstanding.

Any mention of morality and ethics is greeted with sincere appreciation by all in a public venue, but we can be sure it causes many to choke and chortle in the back rooms. However, a decision basically moral in nature must be made soon, by Treasury, on whether they will in fact find that Credit Default Swaps, basically an insurance product, are instruments which fall under their purview and regulation because of the nature of the assets they insure. And that the traditional and legal views of insurance hold in this case as they do in all others; that insurance proceeds cannot flow to entities not at risk. This may cause not insignificant complaints and constitutional challenges from the States insurance commissioners, under whom all insurance contracts are regulated, but the Swaps are such a hybrid product, exist specifically to insure financial instruments, and are of such size, scope, and threat that the swift decisions, rules, regulations, and actions necessary to alleviate the conditions cannot be accomplished by the 50 separate states insurance commissioners in a timely fashion. It’s one of those situations where we must get the problem fixed and clean up the mess later.

Perhaps a second clearinghouse or super-commission for existing Credit Default Swaps is in order; it’s only function to be claims adjustment. In fact, it could be staffed jointly by Treasury and the National Association of Insurance Commissioners. Any CDS triggered must first be submitted to the super-commission for review and it must be accompanied by proof of ownership of the bond, or other underlying instrument. With out proof of exposure to the risk, it will not be forwarded to the insuring entity for payment. The political, legal, and financial fallout of not allowing dishonestly written, sold, or held Credit Default Swaps out of the super-commission would have to be part of the litigation or arbitration mess to clean up later. This rather harsh course of action seems necessary at this juncture with the total value of the outstanding contracts near the total net worth of the globe. It would at least be a bridge forward.

[jdcpapa]

I have been looking for a different banking and investment relationship. As a result I have been dealing with the issue of historical market returns when I discuss my risk aversion and time horizons. Since I have a captive audience when I meet with an FA, I like to walk them through the Dow when they try to sell me on the markets 11% historical performance. When I am finished they usually either say that I am "one of those that think the world is coming to an end" or "now you have me confused". Here goes:

(These numbers include growth, inflation and market risk only). Sorry if I bore some of you.

In 1906 the Dow was at 103 (milestone) (my initial investment) . About 23 years later,in 1929, it peaked (along with the housing market- shiller) at 381. (roi 5.75%+or-). From 1929 to 1932 the market went down to 41. I lost about 40% of my investment value. In 1954, 48 years later,(25 years from its 1929 peak) the market reached 400. (roi 2.75+or-) Flat since 1929. If I got in at at 41 (roi 11%+or-) market back to 1880 level after 49 years. In 1973 the market was at 1,073. (roi 3.5% +or-). In 1974 the Dow went to 578. (roi 2.5+or-). In 1983 it went to 1,059. (roi 3%+or-). At the Dow's all time peak of 14,000 and change in 2007? (roi 5% +or-). The Dow is now at 9,400. (roi 4.5% +or-). All assuming I did not reinvest dividends (3.5% to 4%?). I started investing on a dollar cost averaging basis in 1997. (roi 0%)

Where is the historical 11% return? Right in the bubble! 1983 to 2007 (roi 11%+or-).

I also got caught up in that Auction rate mess. It was tied to the short term treasury. I went back to the fifties to see the trend-historical average no risk was 5%

[aedens]

Archaeological finds in the Middle East have included spores of the rust. Some biblical scholars have interpreted Old Testament references to “blasting winds and blight” to be stem rust. The Romans actually worshipped a god believed to ward off stem rust. We’re not going to defeat this rust, we’ll only manage it. And it’s only one of many emergent diseases we’re facing.
10 percent of the world’s wheat crop is traded internationally, anyway. The vast majority of wheat is consumed in-country.”
This may destroy most of the world’s main wheat crops could strike south Asia’s vast wheat fields two years earlier than research had suggested, leaving millions to starve. The fungus, called Ug99, has spread from Africa to Iran, and may already be in Pakistan. If so, this is extremely bad news, as Pakistan is not only critically reliant on its wheat crop, it is also the gateway to the Asian breadbasket, including the vital Punjab region. http://www.newscientist.com/search?doSe ... query=Ug99
If you look at the ratio of water to food production in regions you can see where we are and the potential monetary impacts to regional. As we are warned time to time we are on our way to solar maximum.
Who's right? Time will tell. Either way, a storm is coming.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006 ... arning.htm I have been alive long enough to form my opinion on these events and I do regard it.
http://solarscience.msfc.nasa.gov/SunspotCycle.shtml
I try to eliminate the bias from input from many sources but trends do emerge as tools.
We are entering a period which many here can fathom but the politic beast is that.
As we read - This was from one of John’s last link some time ago.
"I do encourage the reader to try to use his own brain as well as the thoughts of the writer and look for any value to be added."
Going into this event I assumed 20 percent could "Corporate" vanish and with the
Congressional http://cop.senate.gov/documents/cop-081109-report.pdf
report indeed it is a lot higher on CRE and as we stated many workers are not coming back in these markets.

Do not loose focus it is to crucial of a moment. http://energycommerce.house.gov/Press_1 ... 616_oi.pdf
It never has been about you when they already know who they want and do not for many years.
Our priority's must shift now to proper scarce resource management and the free market warned us to the current bubble
if you want to admit it or not. We really are trying to shift production of agriculture in some area's if you read the press
carefully. If you want to admit or not the focus is being lost to fundamentals which can spell unneeded ruin. Many will say
to vague. I say you have not been paying attention for decades...
=======================================================================
Two years looks:
Northrop will work on the project with Williams Software Assoc. of Fayetteville, N.C.; Onyx Government Services, Inc. and XIO Strategies Inc. of Vienna, Va.; CYTEC Software Systems, Inc. of Ridgeland, Miss.; Evanhoe and Assoc., Dayton, Ohio, and Motorola Inc. of Schaumburg, Ill.
The contract is one of three with the Defense Department awarded to Northrop aimed at integrating logistics technology across the service branches, federal agencies, North Atlantic Treaty Organization nations and other foreign countries.
Wed May 13, 2009 7:43 am BA $42.95 <------- No position Aug 12 BOEING (NYSE: BA) Last Trade: 46.34 Div & Yield: 1.68 (3.70%)<---------- No position
Still walking to the door. Sat Aug 01, 2009 2:20 pm As stated, I am walking orderly out the door to properly rated contracts. 2.94% to go and then I wait.
Point well taken: http://seekingalpha.com/article/155701- ... le-economy
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 1370#p3286
Boeing won the U.S. Special Operations Command contract on April 29, beating competition from Textron Inc.’s AAI Corp.,
L- 3’s Geneva Aerospace, BAE Systems Inc.’s Advanced Ceramics Research, and Navmar Applied Sciences Corp., McGraw said.
The contract with Boeing was the quickest way for the Navy to get the drones to the battlefield and ships
Seeking Value added...

[Higgenbotham]

As a follow up to some of my previous posts and since this data is a bit hard to come by, the bubble in Shanghai reached a high of 3478.01 on August 4. It has since deflated 12.3% in 10 days to a close of 3046.97 on August 14. This data can be found here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=000001.SS

This ran slightly past the July 30 high I had projected using the Tulip Mania model and past the July 20 high I projected using the South Sea Bubble model. Therefore, in my opinion, this qualifies as the most stubborn bubble of all time and as a result the coming worldwide crash will be the worst in history.

Meanwhile, in New York, the bubble mentality was more stubborn than it was in Shanghai. Prices reached a high on August 7 but have only deflated about 1.4%. The August 7 high was preceded by a data release that morning showing that 247,000 jobs were lost in the US during July. An analysis of the underlying figures shows that conditions are even worse than that.

Now I want to spend a bit of time looking at fundamentals, something which I had not discussed much in the past 3 weeks because the data is just beginning to come in. In early December 1974, the Dow made a closing low of about 577. In the ensuing 5 months, there was a 50% rally. In early March 2009, the Dow made a closing low and in the ensuing 5 months there has been a similar 50% rally. In May 1975, the economic data began to confirm the 50% rally as being an accurate portrayal of fundamental conditions in the economy. For example, on May 21, 1975, the government released data showing that durable goods orders had jumped 9.8%. The analogous data release on durable goods will occur on or around August 26. However, data released this week is starting to confirm that there will be no similar recovery to 1975 and the blogosphere is starting to pick up on this. This afternoon I read a well done summary of the recent data releases and what they mean, so will just link it here because I couldn't have said it better myself. It can be found under the last heading (at the bottom) entitled "Reflation Contemplation".

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14200.htm

[aedens]

We clearly understood this coming into this new predicated market cycle. Also do bear in mind that most forward looking company's already updated
capacity that we will fill if or when needed to many market segments. I think, as most do also that blankets statements cover all light to see any direction.
I basically started again on logistic reviews for regional reality and look for data links that support the view not lead it. Water, CPI food issues for zone depletions and from there of course GD parameters. My best case forward thinking is water will play more of a role than debt wars but it is irrelevant which issues starts the problem since all Govenments act the same way. We can see that 60,000 jobs where lost when the water was shutoff in California to socially reenginner the region as such so read between the signs, and when did the Colorado river last get to the ocean meanwhile the Soviets depleted a whole inland sea. I think market data is totally pointless since there was point where a gulf was fixed for investor class and we are in a political Economy more and more. Business did not care at all what the average guy wanted or thought since they creating new consumers elsewhere as we speak.
You as I also, have watched this process for many many decades. If there is a waterfall event so be it. What we have trended is a slow death as in many weak coming into this event now being totally depleted, and those who are bleeding sadly before our eyes if we look outside our front door. In our area in the great lakes we do volunteer work and know many law enforcement individuals and my latest findings are disturbing to say the least. Gradualism going into this fedarally funded from easy credit issues and a uptick in a legal stance to know avarice from top to bottom. Many people will stay on the sidelines since the level of coruption has not run its course. Not to be redundant but data is fragile beyond measure and as stated coming into this predicted problem yes we seen it coming and they are planning to unwind to closure in two year increments so we will drift as free cash flow remains which in all signals not much longer for 5 to 8 milllion household being swept away and the back wall of the true GD has yet finish them off. IMO

As a follow up to some of my previous posts and since this data is a bit hard to come by, the bubble in Shanghai reached a high of 3478.01 on August 4. It has since deflated 12.3% in 10 days to a close of 3046.97 on August 14. This data can be found here:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=000001.SS

This ran slightly past the July 30 high I had projected using the Tulip Mania model and past the July 20 high I projected using the South Sea Bubble model. Therefore, in my opinion, this qualifies as the most stubborn bubble of all time and as a result the coming worldwide crash will be the worst in history.

Meanwhile, in New York, the bubble mentality was more stubborn than it was in Shanghai. Prices reached a high on August 7 but have only deflated about 1.4%. The August 7 high was preceded by a data release that morning showing that 247,000 jobs were lost in the US during July. An analysis of the underlying figures shows that conditions are even worse than that.

Now I want to spend a bit of time looking at fundamentals, something which I had not discussed much in the past 3 weeks because the data is just beginning to come in. In early December 1974, the Dow made a closing low of about 577. In the ensuing 5 months, there was a 50% rally. In early March 2009, the Dow made a closing low and in the ensuing 5 months there has been a similar 50% rally. In May 1975, the economic data began to confirm the 50% rally as being an accurate portrayal of fundamental conditions in the economy. For example, on May 21, 1975, the government released data showing that durable goods orders had jumped 9.8%. The analogous data release on durable goods will occur on or around August 26. However, data released this week is starting to confirm that there will be no similar recovery to 1975 and the blogosphere is starting to pick up on this. This afternoon I read a well done summary of the recent data releases and what they mean, so will just link it here because I couldn't have said it better myself. It can be found under the last heading (at the bottom) entitled "Reflation Contemplation".

http://www.safehaven.com/article-14200.htm

[John]

A web site reader has informed me to expect a financial crisis before
the end of August. As support, she points to this article on the
Kitco site:

> Back to reality on US soil. Many reports have come to the effect
> that at the end of August, a financial breakdown is due, and a
> shutdown of US banks is planned. We await the trigger events with
> mystery and intrigue as overtones. Some on Wall Street, arrogant
> to the end, believe that widespread awareness prevents the actual
> unfolding of events. They are suffering from a terminal disease
> though, as they believe they are in control. They are not. The
> USGovt creditors are in control. The August Hat Trick Letter
> reports have identified five major factors pointing to a severely
> stressful period of time at the end of August and into September.
> The FDIC is scheduled to release its Second Quarter Report that
> could reveal up to 1000 banks expected to croak, surely enough to
> exhaust their rescue fund by between 20-fold and 100-fold. ...

> To be sure, many tripwires are laid out from the systemic
> complexity and lost control, not to mention haphazard design and
> frenzied defense. A massive juggling act is taking place, as US
> bank and political leaders are juggling more balls, and heavier
> balls with each passing month. The risk of accidents is rising
> exponentially from incredible backroom movement of massive funds
> to avert disasters on a weekly basis. WHEN IT COME THE ACCIDENTS,
> PLANNED EVENTS, OR UNEXPECTED RESPONSES TO MINOR DISTURBANCES
> WITHIN THE SYSTEM, TREMENDOUS COLLATERAL DAMAGE WILL ARRIVE, BUT
> THE PRECIOUS METALS WILL STAND TALL AND ENDURE EFFECTIVELY, EVEN
> THRIVE. See gold, silver, and platinum, at least. The broken parts
> and ‘bad apples’ are likely to be eliminated in a flash. We will
> see. People will be hurt, and life savings will take hits. Even
> communication lines will be interrupted. Power structures will
> dissolve. We are approaching historically unprecedented times. The
> signs are omnipresent, often ignored.

> My best sources of information report that some unexpected deep
> shocks are coming from USGovt creditor nations. They are simply
> fed up, frustrated, and astonished at the manner of lost control,
> spiraling debts, and blatant monetization amidst lies in denial of
> that same monetization. The USTreasury auctions now have domestic
> hidden elements, and global hidden monetization elements. ...

> Mainly what we witness is more channeled funds to the big banks,
> more coverage of credit derivative fires, and more announcements
> of bond support. See the $1.25 trillion support for Fannie Mae
> bonds, aka USAgency Mortgage Bonds. The Green Shoots have now been
> dismissed as a marketing ploy. The Stress Tests have now been
> dismissed as a marketing ploy. The Stimulus Plan has now been
> dismissed as a marketing ploy. The only USEconomic recovery will
> be a statistical recovery. A Jobless Recovery is a recovery for
> stocks and a redemption for the bankers. Main Street continues to
> be discarded.
> http://www.kitco.com/ind/willie/aug132009.html

Kitco, of course, is in the business of selling gold to investors, so
that slants some of the article, and perhaps makes it wishful
thinking to some extent. But the idea that foreign creditors are
getting disgusted with what's going on in Washington is quite
credible. (See the article on Iceland's crisis that I posted earlier
today.) I don't know how soon this crisis will come, but it sure
can't be held off indefinitely.

John