Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Yes, Kitco is pushing precious metals, and his thinking may be right. However, if the government does another "FDR"
calling in gold at the governments price, what good is buying precious metals? For that matter why hold money, the government can change it's value by decree , as has happened in history. An Ancient Roman once said, "Yes the government and society are corrupt, but where does one go? Everywhere else is worse". As John has pointed out, a small country like Iceland is at the mercy of larger powers. It may be better to ride a deranged bull then to seek comfort behind a lamb. An old Chinese curse says "may you live in interesting times" these are interesting times and it seems they will become more so. So much for my downer.

There's a lot of history behind Roosevelt's confiscation that rarely comes to light. I'm pretty sure there was a little known 5 ounce exemption per person. If someone thinks Obama is going to pull another FDR I suppose they want to have a lot of small coins and a big family. I always thought for those who live in the city, digging a few 4 foot deep postholes and sinking a few fenceposts in concrete would also do the trick. Or just concrete them into the basement floor if you have one.

[aedens]

I am not riding the Bull so to speak nor do I think the markets are rational on this current Bull.
And this is why I dislike the current mindest. http://mises.org/story/3497#ref6
Caption is why did I listen to CNBC will be the consequnece to the value orientated
affecting commodity and consumer value.
================================
Natural gas for September delivery fell 7.5 cents, or 2.3 percent, to settle at $3.163 per million British thermal units at 2:51 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest price since Sept. 3, 2002. Gas has dropped 44 percent this year.

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[Higgenbotham]

I am not riding the Bull so to speak nor do I think the markets are rational on this current Bull.

Running with deranged bulls requires brass balls. Bulls never give up no matter what the data says. They just fall over from exhaustion.

[aedens]

Ian Wishart's book demonstrates that there is not the slightest scientific reason for the new, quasi-religious belief that The Planet needs Saving. The new religion is merely an excuse for world government. World government will not, repeat not, be democratic government.

The 'global warming' debate is not really a debate about climatology - it is a debate about freedom. It is the aim of the growing world-government faction among the international classe politique to take away our hard-won freedom and democracy forever.

The road to Serfdom is almost complete. Some of us have been watching this since the late 1980's
Longer term issue's are real if you want to belive it or not. Now you see why the Wall went down there and
we are concerned about the free market that is left being in economic terms torn down here.
The back wall of the eco storm is almost here many convey. This may be your last chance to free America, wake up.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... rade#p3891

This brings us to another dominant idea in the Fatal Conceit, and that is the central importance of property to individual freedom.
Hayek at length on this point: Freedom requires that the individual be allowed to pursue his own ends: one who is free is in peacetime no longer bound by the common concrete ends of his community. Such freedom of individual decision is made possible by delimiting distinct individual rights (the rights of property, for example) and designating domains within which each can dispose over means known to him for his own ends. That is, a recognisable free sphere is determined for each person. This is all-important. For to have something of one’s own, however little, is also the foundation of which a distinctive personality can be formed and a distinctive environment created within which particular individual claims can be pursued. (FC, 63)

One of the central claims of the Fatal Conceit is that the attempt to “reorganize” and “rationally construct” society was typically combined with the tribal values that seek to eliminate private property and achieve material equality. This combination has had a devastating effect on individual liberty and, furthermore, has significantly diminished overall prosperity. Sound familar?

[John]

All the news this morning is of a "global selloff".

You may have called it, Higgie.

John

[Higgenbotham]

All the news this morning is of a "global selloff".

You may have called it, Higgie.

John

We already penetrated all of the past 8 or 9 days levels overnight which will probably leave a gap on the charts with a large island top reversal. This is very unusual action to see the Dow futures drop 200 points on a Sunday night and confirms the 1930 pattern I posted last night. You know, this is starting to look like some version of the Panic of 1857 all over again too. Things were a little uneasy with the failure of NH Wolfe on August 11, 1857 and then all hell broke loose when Ohio Life failed on August 24, 1857. The South Sea Bubble also began crashing in August.

[aedens]

To early to look for any support levels of course and uneasy as you conveyed is exactly where we are headed.
Key theme is safety. I planned out by the 19th as stated but with 2.94 in equity in what I liked so I held.
Waiting for some time now for sector sifting by the numbers as dictated by the consumer.

All the news this morning is of a "global selloff".

You may have called it, Higgie.

John

We already penetrated all of the past 8 or 9 days levels overnight which will probably leave a gap on the charts with a large island top reversal. This is very unusual action to see the Dow futures drop 200 points on a Sunday night and confirms the 1930 pattern I posted last night. You know, this is starting to look like some version of the Panic of 1857 all over again too. Things were a little uneasy with the failure of NH Wolfe on August 11, 1857 and then all hell broke loose when Ohio Life failed on August 24, 1857. The South Sea Bubble also began crashing in August.

[aedens]

Did you all see Mr. Peter Shiff on CNBC today guys. He took them to the wood shed on US Markets. It just enforced my view to the theme we have been seeing.
Lingering pain and malinvestment and he quoted pink sheets to firms on Wall Street instead of bonuses. I thought it was spot on to proper course to repair. Now for the consumer thats another question and volitility of commodity speculation to supply side realities have to play out. On the sidelines for now but looking for value as we go way down it appears. The put call ratios I need to digest more and this is my achilles heel for sure.

On the one hand, prices break after a certain time unless new doses of the inflation poison are injected (and if they are, the experiment ends with the destruction of the currency). A rise in prices leads entrepreneurs to expect further rises. Consequently, they make new investments and build inventories, which in turn operate to boost prices further. The moment the stimulus of rising prices is exhausted, the cumulative boom spiral reverses its direction. Since there is no new stratum of buyers on whom the bulls can unload, the downward movement gains momentum. L. Albert Hahn

I will be trimming some contracts in October per se since this is my tipping point to seek if any equity as in the past Equity survived and many Bonds
classes vanished to default in this massive bear balance sheet depression which will linger if we decide to observe monetery discretions as Mr. Shiff outlayed.

[Higgenbotham]

There does not appear to be any recovery in spending this month. There was a recovery in spending 5 months after the December 1974 stock market low and investors have been assuming that is going to happen again.

Stock analysts at Citigroup are predicting a decline in back-to-school sales for the first time since they began tracking the figures in 1995. They estimate August and September sales at stores open for at least a year — known as same-store sales — will fall 3 to 4 percent, compared with an increase of nearly 1 percent in the same period last year.

The National Retail Federation, an industry group, expects the average family with school-age children to spend nearly 8 percent less this year than last. And ShopperTrak, a research company, predicted customer traffic would be down 10 percent from a year ago.

“This is going to be the worst back-to-school season in many, many years,” said Craig F. Johnson, president of Customer Growth Partners, a retailing consultant firm.

This article reads to me like we are seeing long term generational changes in spending behavior.

Aéropostale and Wal-Mart, the discount chain, are among teenagers’ go-to stores this season, while more expensive stores — like Hollister and Abercrombie & Fitch — are not, according to a survey of students ages 12 to 17 by Majestic Research.

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/15/busin ... ol.html?em

[John]

Dear Higgie,

Futures are up tonight.

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html

What do you think is going to happen tomorrow?

By the way, do you ever sleep?

John