Financial topics

[aedens]

During what I believe were similar stages of the Tulip Bubble and the South Sea Bubble, there appeared open revulsion or formal governmental attempts to curb the bubbles (August 18, 1720 Bubble Act enforcement during the South Sea Bubble for example). So far in China and the US, there is only talk of curbing the bubbles (Chinese authoritites hinted last week and in the US there is HR 1207). Despite my belief to the contrary, the markets still seem unperturbed by HR 1207, swine flu, earnings or anything else. The bubble in Shanghai reached a new high last night and likewise in New York just a few minutes ago, exceeding the historical models I am using as well as (it appears anyway) the likely time window set up by Didier Sornette and others who used different methods to estimate that the bubble in Shanghai would burst between July 17 and 27. If they used 80% probability for that time window, then 7 days beyond it would put it well into the the upper 90's assuming normal distribution of outcomes. But as we know, the world is not normally distributed. I continue to stay short and watch in amazement!

Many have pointed out in severe stress times equity survived and bonds where crushed. May we see the Equity market rush as the endgame play as event horizon. It happened to them then and someone may remember the article timeline to the event better than me. I have the article in mind but not the monetary cycle time line to the event exhaustion correlation. It was apparent then in that timeline and today as we have noted in this horizon timeline. Meanwhile you can get a free ticket out of New York now since that is the blowback from oh the so special New York to there citizens. Meanwhile, its bank payout time season. Like many said before that debased money is debased people. No irony, just simple truth in history's moral compass.

Addition: I found it http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... =680#p1899
Similar patterns do exist still given demographic in contraction and currency. What I mean is contraction and debt Implosions in true
context to regional play foreign and domestic. GD parameters fit overarching reality based demographic's.
It's not that government has lacked information needed to fix the problem. It is institutionally incapable of bringing about the desired result, since the principles of profit and loss, private property and contract, enterprise and entrepreneurship, do not exist in government. Government operates with an eye to its own short-term survival, and those of its connected interest groups, and nothing else.
President Elect Obama clearly stated his three main priorities upon assuming office on January 20, 2009, to wit: arrange an additional stimulus package for the U.S. economy, engineer a bailout package for the automotive industry and create a program to forestall the proliferation of residential foreclosures. It appears that the Obama administration is about to learn the hard way that an extant chronic debt situation cannot be solved by the issuance of more debt and there looking for a pivot point to change. I wish them well in these trying times to create more debt lemmings.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... lays#p3793

[mannfm11]

I think this is one of the better reads on China I have seen in awhile. It is supposed to be by Andy Xie, who used to be Morgan Stanley's chief Chinese economist until he made a comment about what an organized crime center Singapore is.

http://www.my1510.cn/article.php?id=e3fc777cdd24720a

This is hard to read. I have read enough Xie to recognize it, though it was labeled off another site, I think naked capitalism.com. He says that he has never labeled somethng as a bubble yet that didn't turn out to be one. He says that China has taken advantage of the weak dollar by linking its currency directly to the dollar, which really makes it next to impossible for China to bail out the dollar or the US because the Chinese are linked to the dollar. I believe it was Matt Stiles site that had a link for the James GAlbraith study that it is quite possible that the trade surplus in China is made up and instead a cover for imported capital. China is throwing up about 1.5 billion square meters of housing according to Xie's article here. To put that in perspective, I think a square meter is about 10 square feet so we are talking about 15 billion feet or roughly 10 million homes of 1500 square feet, which is about 2.5 times the peak of the US housing bubble using a 3000 foot average. They aren't building those houses with materials earned from the export of crap that they export. This report is quite possibly correct and instead the Chinese boom is a bunch of smuggled capital.

The figures in Xie's article about housing is very interesting, especially in the sense that real estate isn't going to have much population pressure against it. Xie says that there is 2 billion meters under construction and I assume enough ready to develop land for anotehr 2 billion square meters and capacity to build 1.5 billion a year. He says that the 300 million people that might move from the country to the cities would demand about 8.4 billion meters altogether based on current per capita demand, which is very high compared to most Asian countries. This don't leave but about 5 more years of boom before China is built out then the deflation starts. There is much of interest on Michael Pettis' site if you haven't been there. Pettis says he is going to post something lenghty in the next few days. This is the link to his site. http://mpettis.com/

[aedens]

Yea, we touched on basket currency swaps i.e SDR draws and I would have to search for the pogoms who stated said position but we have it on forum. I think the main drift as John's earlier chart indicated lock step to reported flows for our primary indication numbers on trade flows. No comment on my part other than cordination on the adminstration math with them as in matching. As we know the fragility of issuances in G.19 http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/ ... nt/g19.htm have been, lets say the wheels moving in units pared to 10/16 units the current rate ~10% above needs to be scaled back to proper context of production since the pull is obvious to conclusion on saturation points we do not need. As a taxpayer stop looting the future and me as deals on wheels to A. Taxpayer dime. Being a polital economy decision I think we know how that is going to go... but cut back asap. Reality is compression in the market if we like it or not. Thank for the conveyance will read and thank you in advance.

[Higgenbotham]

This guy made $4 million in the crash, then lost most of it. Very interesting story.

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/08/lig ... -once.html

[John]

This guy made $4 million in the crash, then lost most of it. Very interesting story.

http://xtrends.blogspot.com/2009/08/lig ... -once.html

I find that story to be not so much interesting as VERY depressing.

John

[xakzen]

From my vantage point, much of the past 3 weeks the market has rallied on short covering. My evidence for this comes from the Rydex asset data.

fig_2.jpg

This reminds me of a question I first ruminated last May when I was forced to close my short positions. If this most recent rally has decimated short sellers like myself (and I am a bit player at best), who will be left to buy on the way down?

[Higgenbotham]

From my vantage point, much of the past 3 weeks the market has rallied on short covering. My evidence for this comes from the Rydex asset data.

fig_2.jpg

This reminds me of a question I first ruminated last May when I was forced to close my short positions. If this most recent rally has decimated short sellers like myself (and I am a bit player at best), who will be left to buy on the way down?

In futures, for every long there is a short but I suppose that by the time this is ready to go down most of the shorts will be concentrated in a few hands. What concerns me is that the shorts will be in the hands of those who are aware that a crash is coming and there really won't be anybody left to buy on the way down even though the potential is there. If some of these fellows who shorted a lot lower like the guy in that article are holding when the market turns, they may buy back between here and the March low to get out at break even. But if they mostly cough up their shorts up here to a few large players, then it seems less likely that will happen. The large players will just ride it to Dow 4000 or whatever they think the target is.

From that standpoint, what appears to be going on is indeed very depressing.

[aedens]

I seen this as first base in the ongoing game as I posted observance from data.

Mainstream has caught up.
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/In ... lling.aspx

Wed Jul 29, 2009 6:31 am
Insider sales I have noted. I will sell before August 19th what Equity I have left which is 13.4% left. As we assumed the back wall is coming.<---- remember my latency time to factor conveyance. Like a few weeks on complilation of trend.

Cannot hurt to walk out orderly and see what clears.

I sold more equity today so if the number add up I have less than 5%
I stated we will see what clears. Very early 20% of Company's as we know
will not be as we know them. My observation now is 15% on some elements.
These are my observations only so trying to match data with reality as we know is
trying on one soul. Critical mass is closer than we want to posit. I will try to seek value
next year and look for some this year if at all possible. I think the dross has fooled to many
at to many levels. Class investors have different glasses.
Like Burt stated the economy and speculation are 2 different aspects to paraphrase. I try to eliminate the bias from input from many sources but trends do emerge as tools. From top to bottom mistakes have been made and truly this land is in Judgement if you believe or not. Vanilla invest has done what lately?

Sun Dec 07, 2008 3:10 pm
Sir,
Being pressed for time today can you remeber that scammer's name you linked for the coming carbon energy credit scam to unfold very soon on ill advised investors.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/N/ ... TE=DEFAULT
The only message from history also is capital generally goes to where it treated best.
Even if the Hill slashed 20 percent the trend is down.

[Samir]

http://www.econlib.org/library/Columns/y2009/Hummeltbills.html

Interesting article on why the Gov will probably default on treasures.

[John]

Last year, Gordo said that he'd been able to borrow $300,000 through
credit cards, using techniques from fatwallet.com. I never knew what
he was talking about, but I stumbled across a place that explains it.

The summary is given on this page:
http://www.wired.com/threatlevel/2009/0 ... ditmarket/

The complete story is in the referenced page:
http://www.uic.edu/htbin/cgiwrap/bin/ojs/index.php/fm/article/view/2583/2246

John