Echo boomers, the children of the post-World War Two baby boomer generation, offer a massive source of support for housing, the study said.
The generation is entering the peak home buying and renting ages of 25 to 44 and numbers over five million people more than did their parents' record-sized group in the 1970s.
"Echo boomers are larger than the baby boomer population. Couple that with immigration and you have the seeds, the possibility of a housing recovery," Nicolas Retsinas, director of Harvard's Joint Center for Housing Studies, said in an interview.
The group will bolster demand for the next 10 years and beyond, supporting the sagging housing market even if immigration drops, the study said.
I'll defer to John on the generational aspects, but this is nonsense based on the demographic arguments alone. Here are the facts on numbers of live births in the US from 1909 to 2001:
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/statab/nat ... ol1_01.pdf
Births went way down in the 1970's. From a demographic standpoint, that's why single family housing will be a bust for the next 15 years. From what I can remember about Harry Dent's demographic studies, peak real estate consumption occurs at approximately age 45. If we take the peak birth rates which ended approximately in 1961 and add 45, we can somewhat see the logic of a real estate boom ending in 2006. Similarly, adding 45 to the approximate end of trough births in 1978 gives us 2023 as the approximate end of the McMansion glut.
Apartments may be a different story as birthrates began to rise again toward 4,000,000 per year in the late 1980's. But that's only if all those kids can find jobs and have the money to move out of their parent's oversized houses.
And my analysis is just based on demographics alone. What happens if we draft all these kids to fight a war? Or if a pandemic sweeps through and kills them off?
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Good reference to go with the above: According to Harry Dent, McMansion demand peaks at age 44. He also gives his demographic outlook on apartments and other types of real estate.
http://www.hsdent.com/real-estate-trends/
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In my opinion, the big monkey wrench when it comes to comparing echo boom and baby boom behavior is college expenses and associated debts. This something entirely new. College indebtedness, even if all other factors are equal (which of course they are not), will cause these kids born in the late 1980's and after to postpone or reduce commitments that the boomers were able to make at earlier ages when college costs were lower.
"Room(s) available for rent in McMansion(s). $175 per month. Young single female teacher(s), etc., OK. Include separate bathroom(s) and utilities. Six year lease available if you want to lock in the rate until your college loans are paid off. Proof that house payments are up to date available. Bring a friend and you both get 10% off. Bring 2 or 3 friends and my next door neighbors will give you the same lease terms."
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.