Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
burt
Posts: 138
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 5:56 am
Location: Europe

Re: Financial topics

Post by burt »

Carl Lieberman wrote:"In all historical cases where a government with debt over 80% of GNP and deficit over 40% of spending where the government printed to cover deficit and debt coming due they had hyperinflation."
You use quote, could you please give your source.

It is VERY tricky, for me 2011 will be on the sign of inflation on anything except "Capital", except on the value of what was build in the past to help us in the future. Stock Market I really don't know.

As I said before it depends on where the money goes...
And as Lieberman said Dollar as a reserve currency, is going to have a special and long term play. Now it depends on Asia...

Hyperinflation and Deflation are often the same problem, misallocation of money. Now Hyperinflation, for me, is political and can be the result of an inflationary fight against deflation, so my expectation are : -first-inlation -second-deflation again -third-hyperinflation BUT I use the word "inlfation" in the same meaning as Central Banksters.

Be careful about what you mean with inflation, don't look at CPI numbers, go to your own level, what does it mean? You'll discover that it is VERY different, depending on the look you have....

As I sais before, it not an important clue for me, because the definition is not clear enough, or too political.

Fight between Borrowers and Lenders is, for me, a much more practical view, because it involves Banks, Goverment, Power and Armies back to my own little life and on wich I can believe or not...

vincecate
Posts: 2371
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 7:11 am
Location: Anguilla
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

burt wrote:
Carl Lieberman wrote:"In all historical cases where a government with debt over 80% of GNP and deficit over 40% of spending where the government printed to cover deficit and debt coming due they had hyperinflation."
You use quote, could you please give your source.
He was quoting me from above and I am getting the info, though not an exact quote, from Bernholz book, "Monetary Regimes and Inflation: History, Economic and Political Relationships". This is at least one of the best books on Hyperinflation if not the best.

http://www.amazon.com/Monetary-Regimes- ... 213&sr=8-1

You can see some from this at:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/am ... -in-japan/

-- Vince

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Cairo Stock Exchange

Post by John »


vincecate
Posts: 2371
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 7:11 am
Location: Anguilla
Contact:

Re: Cairo Stock Exchange

Post by vincecate »

John wrote:Now it's Egypt's turn:
Wow.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Cairo Stock Exchange

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:Now it's Egypt's turn:
Today the Dow Jones Industrials finished making a variation of a rare pattern that preceded the 1929 and 1987 crashes. Unfortunately, I only have paper charts of 1929 and 1987, so can't easily illustrate this. But if you see the Dow not exceed Tuesday's high and start to make big moves down in the next few days just be aware. I'll comment more if this begins to happen, and maybe go to the effort of taking some photos of my paper charts and explaining in more detail. For now, just a heads up.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN2728123420110128
UPDATE 4-Moody's says U.S. credit rating risks are rising
Thu Jan 27, 2011 8:40pm EST

* Time-frame for possible actions on US rating shortening
NEW YORK, Jan 27 (Reuters) - Moody's Investors Service warned on Thursday that lack of U.S. government action on the budget deficit increases the likelihood of a negative outlook on the country's top AAA credit rating.

The Moody's report, which came hours after a downgrade of Japan by Standard & Poor's and an IMF warning on growing budget deficits in both countries, reiterated previous comments made by the agency late last year.

Moody's had said in December that the extension of Bush-era tax cuts would add to the likelihood of a negative outlook on the U.S. rating in the next two years.

Lower debt ratings typically push up a country's borrowing costs. A negative outlook makes a rating downgrade more likely in the next 12 to 18 months.

In Thursday's report, Moody's provided more details about the risks to U.S. ratings. It expressed concern about the new configuration of the U.S. Congress, saying it may reduce the chances of an agreement to rein in the deficit.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

vincecate
Posts: 2371
Joined: Mon May 10, 2010 7:11 am
Location: Anguilla
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by vincecate »

From Wikileaks it seems that the Saudi leaders feel they can ask the US to invade Iran and expect them to do so. I think this is because they are supporting the dollar by pricing oil in dollars. There seems to be a deal that the US military helps them out in exchange they prop up the dollar. If revolution spreads to Saudi Arabia this deal may become history. If they stop pricing oil in dollars that could be the thing that triggers the collapse of the dollar.

burt
Posts: 138
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 5:56 am
Location: Europe

Re: Cairo Stock Exchange

Post by burt »

Higgenbotham wrote:
John wrote:Now it's Egypt's turn:
Today the Dow Jones Industrials finished making a variation of a rare pattern that preceded the 1929 and 1987 crashes. Unfortunately, I only have paper charts of 1929 and 1987, so can't easily illustrate this. But if you see the Dow not exceed Tuesday's high and start to make big moves down in the next few days just be aware. I'll comment more if this begins to happen, and maybe go to the effort of taking some photos of my paper charts and explaining in more detail. For now, just a heads up.
Hello this was a very brilliant observation, can you tell us more... We can find the charts, so a description of the observation would nice even if you cannot give us the charts yet.
And where did you get this observation from?
It looks like we are headed for a retracement, and I think it will be very chopy

Now as I think you discovered something very important when you described the first 3 panics in 2010, I'm waiting for the market to go back and forth until March until more or less 1400, and THEN a panic back to 1000... This is just a scenario based on your observation, but it looks coherent with the psychology of the actual speculators... Every one wants to buy (I mean the median people) so the market has to go down a bit then back up then crash (a real crash 400 points in the S&P at least) and then up again because to kill the actual wave up you need at least some kind of euphoria AND good news from the EEEEConomy (the God of the media, that's why I put so many E). This is a scenario, not the truth... we'll see. What do you think about it?

Regards

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Cairo Stock Exchange

Post by Higgenbotham »

burt wrote:We can find the charts, so a description of the observation would nice even if you cannot give us the charts yet.
And where did you get this observation from?

Now as I think you discovered something very important when you described the first 3 panics in 2010, I'm waiting for the market to go back and forth until March until more or less 1400, and THEN a panic back to 1000... This is just a scenario based on your observation, but it looks coherent with the psychology of the actual speculators... Every one wants to buy (I mean the median people) so the market has to go down a bit then back up then crash (a real crash 400 points in the S&P at least) and then up again because to kill the actual wave up you need at least some kind of euphoria AND good news from the EEEEConomy (the God of the media, that's why I put so many E). This is a scenario, not the truth... we'll see. What do you think about it?

Regards
We'll need to wait a week or two to know. The Dow completed the pattern on Thursday and so far it is playing out but one day doesn't tell us much. I can't yet tell how long the first stage will take if it does continue, but my best guess is by February 7, the November lows will get taken out in the indexes. If that does end up happening (just a projection at this point) then a crash may be possible from there and I'll post the info.

This is my own observation but I sent it to a cycle theorist who has studied market cycles for a long time and he has come to the conclusion that the market is going to crash. I don't think he saw this specifically but he has seen other things and this helped confirm it in his mind. That's probably why I mentioned it, but I'm not convinced. I had seen the same thing happen as Hurricane Rita was moving toward Houston, then as the hurricane changed course the pattern disappeared. However, I also think this situation may be different because, due to previous actions, it may not be possible to delay the smashup any longer.

So I think that tells you what I think of the other scenario. Anything is possible, but it may no longer be possible to delay the smashup another two months. We'll just have to wait and see.

Another thing I should mention. The big trading houses have computers that sift through historical patterns. From the early November high, the market was making an obvious crash pattern that the computers could have picked up. I think some hedge funds went short based on this. Their short covering would have helped lift the market for a time. Now the pattern has morphed into something that is not obvious and the computers will not be able to pick up. Getting back to the hedge funds, the market movement looks to me like some hedge funds may be in trouble. The brokers are watching the accounts more carefully and tightening up on margins.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

burt
Posts: 138
Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 5:56 am
Location: Europe

Re: Cairo Stock Exchange

Post by burt »

Higgenbotham wrote: We'll need to wait a week or two to know. The Dow completed the pattern on Thursday and so far it is playing out but one day doesn't tell us much.
For sure, so this was NOT my question, my question was: what did you observe special on Thursday on the Dow?
Apart the fact there was a recent non-confirmed Dow non-confirmation, point which doesn't mean anything yet, I haven't seen anything, so for my own culture, and if you agree, could you explain.

Another point for my own culture, why do you say the market shouldn't delay 2 months more. Because you follow some theory about the cycles? I followed theory on cycles in the past, but for the short term (I mean between 1 week and 3 month) I havn't found there anything very usefull. Mabe I took the wrong references or didn't study hard enough.

Regards

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 36 guests