Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

bring your game today - Ban and fee on thee HFT
Botbellion
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/trading-r ... d#comments

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvnzxeqC ... re=related

Philly Fed factory index down, home sales down, job claims up.

The "only good news," according to one analyst I heard
on Bloomberg TV, is that the SEC is investigating S&P.
Ha, ha, ha.

Stocks in Europe and NY falling like a stone.

John

John wrote:Stocks in Europe and NY falling like a stone.

And to think that I posted a message this morning that this week was a bit dull but that the equities expiration tomorrow could bring some action. I still think that with the equities option expiration tomorrow the sharpest sell off in a single day could be early next week; my hunch would be Tuesday or Wednesday.

I am up on the day so far, my gold investments up 1.7%; my golds miners down 1%

Stocks are most closely following the 1929 crash trajectory. The first leg down from the September 3, 1929 high lasted 23 trading days. The rebound from the first leg down was 5 trading days to October 11, 1929. Then came the crash. The first leg down from the July 7, 2011 high lasted 23 trading days. The rebound from the first leg down was 6 trading days to August 17, 2011. Now the market is starting to crash.

We can see the market went 1 day beyond this correlation. I've already seen this kind of behavior twice. I think some traders are finding the correlation and going short. The HFT machines and the big boys are then forcing them out of their positions by rallying the market an extra day which makes it look like the pattern is not recurring.

October 07, 1929 = August 10, 2011
October 11, 1929 = August 16, 2011 (we are counting trading days)
October 23, 1929 - August 26, 2011 (key potential crash date which correlates well to 1929)
October 24, 1929 = August 29, 2011
October 29, 1929 = September 01, 2011

Higgenbotham wrote:We can see the market went 1 day beyond this correlation. I've already seen this kind of behavior twice. I think some traders are finding the correlation and going short. The HFT machines and the big boys are then forcing them out of their positions by rallying the market an extra day which makes it look like the pattern is not recurring.

This is mind-blowing, if true.

John

I've spent the past few days studying the real estate market across the country.

In the hard hit manufacturing areas I've seen some prices back to 1992 or 1993 levels. This has been verified by local realtors. I had no idea things were that bad.

In the bubble retirement areas in the south prices are back to about 1995 levels.

Typically, I see prices back to early 2000's levels (say 2001 or 2002).

Some areas of the Pacific Northwest look to be back to 2005 levels. Those areas peaked later.

The midwest farm states look to be stable or even appreciating in some instances, although it's more difficult to find data for those areas. Real estate prices in those areas were low when grain prices were low in the late 1990's and early 2000's.

John wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote:We can see the market went 1 day beyond this correlation. I've already seen this kind of behavior twice. I think some traders are finding the correlation and going short. The HFT machines and the big boys are then forcing them out of their positions by rallying the market an extra day which makes it look like the pattern is not recurring.

This is mind-blowing, if true.

John

As Burt said, it's a poker game to some extent so this type of thing happens every day. What makes it unusual in my mind is it sort of confirms that all the players think it's going to crash.

The first two times I saw the market deviate 1 day from a correlation, it took a dive right after.

Also, the very brief punch through 1200 and subsequent reversal makes a crash seem more likely.

Higgenbotham wrote:Stocks are most closely following the 1929 crash trajectory

I think you may be right, Higgie. I had August 26 ( or 25 ) as a hunch based upon human behaviour, you have correlated it to history.

The next couple of weeks, if as action packed as we think, will be most interesting.
Regards
Richard

DAX

The German stock market index, the DAX, was reported by Sharenet to be down 9% this morning. That was a reporting error since corrected but must have given some people a heart attack or two.
The DAX is 3.7% down today as I write
Richard

Higgenbotham wrote:Stocks are most closely following the 1929 crash trajectory. The first leg down from the September 3, 1929 high lasted 23 trading days. The rebound from the first leg down was 5 trading days to October 11, 1929. Then came the crash. The first leg down from the July 7, 2011 high lasted 23 trading days. The rebound from the first leg down was 6 trading days to August 17, 2011. Now the market is starting to crash.

We can see the market went 1 day beyond this correlation. I've already seen this kind of behavior twice. I think some traders are finding the correlation and going short. The HFT machines and the big boys are then forcing them out of their positions by rallying the market an extra day which makes it look like the pattern is not recurring.

I replaced and increased my short fund position yesterday on the severe decline.

The market is extremely unstable right now, as illustrated by the wild up and down swings. Because I have a day job, it's not possible for me to watch the market that closely, but I do think we are in a bear market that will go on for some time. I fully expect this position to pay off, either sooner or later.

I think either the market is going to follow the financials into the abyss or the financials are going to rally.