Germany, 1931

[malleni]

...

> That is quite a statement. Last week an old lady shot herself and
> was relieved of her debt. Will the world community be so
> understanding of Uncle Sam's affliction?

The world community will not be particularly understanding; they'll
mostly be extremely contemptuous and hate-filled, and this will
lead to a world war.

In the meantime, however, countries around the world will take any
desperate measure they can to keep the world from sliding further and
further into total chaos.

> ...
I don't know of the history that you mention (US, FR and GB trying to save the currency).

One of the totally desperate measures that was taken in 1931 was to
forgive Germany's debt, and my expectation is that some similar
totally desperate measure will be taken today.

Sorry John,
I really do not understand - why you are keeping to use phrase in "1931 Allied was to
forgive Germany's debt" , because that is not true.
Actually - this is absolute - wrong.
Why?
Simple. Because - That is not happened.


Quite opposite.
The Allied destroyed Germans industry with enormous "war reparation" German should pay after Treaty of Versailles!
This reparation Germany should pay according this Treaty until 1988, as "only guilty" for the 1WW.
The Allied even before Treaty of Versailles(!) occupied more areas of the Germany before WW1 (west front) so Germany was about 13% "smaller" 1918(!).
Moreover, in January 1923 France occupied the Ruhr industrial region (additionally) as a result of Germany's failure to meet its reparations payments.

1931. - as I know - was NO attempt to "forgive Germany debt".
(Please, if you have additional information - it would be good to share it.)

It is correct that Germany was very strong influenced by the Great depression in USA, and that it actually helped Nazi party and Hitler to take the power, but since Germany economy was in collapse.
Germans were in misery, unemployed and extremely degraded.
More over, it was probably the Treaty of Versailles which caused a chain reaction leading to World War II.
They could not pay back enormous debt + war reparations with depleted industry and hyperinflated currency.

The facts are that already:
- In 1932 the German government announced it would no longer adhere to the treaty´s military limitations, citing the Allies violation of the treaty by failing to initiate military limitations on themselves as called for in the preamble of Part V of the Treaty of Versailles.
And of course:
- In March 1935, Adolf Hitler violated the Treaty of Versailles by introducing compulsory military conscription in Germany and rebuilding the armed forces.

Actually - Hitler destroyed the massive unimplemented and misery in Germany building the enormous military power in Germany.
Why the Allied do not react - is another part of discussion - but as I mentioned already:
I do not find anywhere that there was an "desperate measures that was taken in 1931 to
forgive Germany's debt"

[malleni]

Dear John,
Additionally, you are underlined quite often:

...
The world community will not be particularly understanding; they'll
mostly be extremely contemptuous and hate-filled, and this will
lead to a world war.
...

Obviously, you talking quite much about - "world war" and "civilisation clash".
It is in my opinion quite clear that "war" can be made mostly by - military. (Anyway - it is that "counts")
Please, lets see than the militarisation and militarised countries?
Even if we do not need to think about directly usage of all this military equipment (which is definitely not to dismiss) - it would perhaps be good to see "who producing and selling most of this staff on the planet?" (With other words - who has huge advance to keep producing it?)

And than you explaining for me who tried in very short sentence (because this should be little deeper study than my) to give a different aspect even of the political situation with militarisation - than and now:

...
This is fatuous political nonsense which is also completely
irrelevant in every possible way. You're focusing on tiny political
details which are irrelevant to the big picture -- namely that in
1931 the entire world was sliding into chaos, just as is happening
today.
...

As said many times before - I can not simply "believe you", even if you have perhaps right.

There are people who do it, but obviously there are people who tried to discuss with arguments even questions for you saying - "it was happened!"
I am not the one who directly without reliable facts - can approve some theory.

I did not find anywhere that Allied tried to cancel Germans debt or to help its currency, but quite opposite - Allied tried to press Germany even more, which cause economic and financial collapse of the country - which on the other side "born" Nazi movement.
On the other side I could not see the militarisation of the Germany as "tiny political detail" - if you meant on it?
Since this helped Germany to went out the economical crises, but prepared the World to the 2WW.

So even, in my opinion, if you are "theoretical" correct when you saying that:
"namely that in 1931 the entire world was sliding into chaos, just as is happening today."...

...that is not true, because:
1. the 2WW was not the direct product of the Great depression, even if it helped Hitler to come on the power. (with other words - Germans were so desperate and in misery that soon or later some extremely violet event could happened. (Even in Germany there was a war between SA (much bigger) and SS paramilitaries. SS won - with Hitler as Fürer)
- Moreover, obviously both US and Germany technically - went out of this crises couple years before 2WW (Which started in September 1939).
2. The World today is not the same as 1931.
- This time as we know - the Germany was suffering not just enormous debt and loose of industry and territory, but even huge "war reparations". And militarisation actually helped Germany out for a while.
- Today US has NO "war reparation", but on the other side has enormous debt and empty treasury.
- Since it has the monopoly position on the currency market - it can always (I do not now) pressure smaller countries to use US dollar as "reserve currency".
- Since US is already the most militarised nation in the human history - more militarisation concept would be quite difficult, but not impossible. In case of the "outer threat" (China, Russia, EU,...) - the US can be even more militarised, which can perhaps could help with two possibilities: 1. the nation will bi "united" against the "outer enemy" (and forget the "local problem"); 2. The military industry will create more jobs again.

So since I read your explanations of these political and economic events with parallel between USA-Germany and China-USA, I was not quite satisfied with you explanation, even if there are questions to discuss.
You can, of course dismiss the discussion about this questions, without to try to explain (with facts) - why it is:
1. - "irrelevant in every possible way"
2. - "tiny political detail"


Regarding "TOTALLY MEANINGLESS" concept of "gold standard" we can perhaps discuss later, if you are not angry because somebody do not automatically agree with your (I think -not on fact based) opinion.


Best regards
malleni

[John]

> 1931. - as I know - was NO attempt to "forgive Germany debt".
> (Please, if you have additional information - it would be good to
> share it.)

My information on this subject has come largely from the 1932 book,
"The Bubble that Broke the World." Have you read the following
article?

** The bubble that broke the world
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... rett071009

I'll try to do some additional research on the subject, as time
permits.

Sincerely,

John

[axis_of_evil]

I did not find anywhere that Allied tried to cancel Germans debt or to help its currency, but quite opposite - Allied tried to press Germany even more, which cause economic and financial collapse of the country - which on the other side "born" Nazi movement.

see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lausanne_C ... ce_of_1932

It is in my opinion quite clear that "war" can be made mostly by - military. (Anyway - it is that "counts")
Please, lets see than the militarisation and militarised countries?

see: http://www.sipri.org/contents/milap/mil ... rends.html

Even if we do not need to think about directly usage of all this military equipment (which is definitely not to dismiss) - it would perhaps be good to see "who producing and selling most of this staff on the planet?" (With other words - who has huge advance to keep producing it?)

see: https://www.cia.gov/library/publication ... 8rank.html

the 2WW was not the direct product of the Great depression, even if it helped Hitler to come on the power.

see: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Causes_of_World_War_II

- This time as we know - the Germany was suffering not just enormous debt and loose of industry and territory, but even huge "war reparations". And militarisation actually helped Germany out for a while.
- Today US has NO "war reparation", but on the other side has enormous debt and empty treasury.
- Since it has the monopoly position on the currency market - it can always (I do not now) pressure smaller countries to use US dollar as "reserve currency".
- Since US is already the most militarised nation in the human history - more militarisation concept would be quite difficult, but not impossible. In case of the "outer threat" (China, Russia, EU,...) - the US can be even more militarised, which can perhaps could help with two possibilities: 1. the nation will bi "united" against the "outer enemy" (and forget the "local problem"); 2. The military industry will create more jobs again.

Yes....this was basically what John said.

[John]

Wow! Thanks, axis.

John

[malleni]

...

- This time as we know - the Germany was suffering not just enormous debt and loose of industry and territory, but even huge "war reparations". And militarisation actually helped Germany out for a while.
- Today US has NO "war reparation", but on the other side has enormous debt and empty treasury.
- Since it has the monopoly position on the currency market - it can always (I do not now) pressure smaller countries to use US dollar as "reserve currency".
- Since US is already the most militarised nation in the human history - more militarisation concept would be quite difficult, but not impossible. In case of the "outer threat" (China, Russia, EU,...) - the US can be even more militarised, which can perhaps could help with two possibilities: 1. the nation will bi "united" against the "outer enemy" (and forget the "local problem"); 2. The military industry will create more jobs again.

Yes....this was basically what John said.

No...
It is not what John said.
Sorry.

It is exactly what he said:

...

> So please, if we trying to find a connection between that Germany
> and today USA - it can be only on facts. 1. - The one of these
> facts is that both countries had (US still have) - huge
> (disproportional) military complex, with military industries and
> expense. 2. - Germany, lose the war and was not allowed to rebuild
> this industry, and on the another side Germany was in lack of
> money. - US does not lose a big war, but losing at least two
> smaller one and military industry (if it is not outsourced) - has
> no money since the state has no money.

This is fatuous political nonsense which is also completely
irrelevant in every possible way. You're focusing on tiny political
details which are irrelevant to the big picture -- namely that in
1931 the entire world was sliding into chaos, just as is happening
today.

And when the world is sliding into chaos, the political details and
bickering are put aside, and desperate measures are taken, and that's
what's happening today, and will happen more and more in the next
year.
...

And obviously that there are two different understandings about events in Germany 1931 and connection to the USA.

BTW, Thanks for links, but anyway there is not so much we do not know already.
The question is just - if we would like to use this facts or not.

[malleni]

Moreover, Garet Garrett in book which John cited talking quite clear about this situation.
Even about political circumstances at this time.
- As I understanding it, he explained just simple:
1. All European country had problem after WW1
2. The reparations for Germany war pain.
3. Nobody "desperately" help Gemany, since there were couple try to get recover Germany - but ONLY to earn money (reparations) or get money back (loans)
4. Germany was 1929 disastrous, with very strong Communist party (KPD). Moreover, the Nazi paramilitaries SA and SS was also against each other, because SA besides Nazi-ideas would like to take banks and industries from rich. It is clear that the reach help Hitler to come to power after all.


Why I think that tis event is important for the discussion?
Because John building complete theory on some of these events (axioms) and if there are not correct - the theory can't be that either.

Here are the speculations from the site:

Using the experiences described by Garrett in 1931, we can SPECULATE about some of the things that may be coming within the next couple of years:

* In 1931, America was the creditor and Germany was the debtor; today, China is the most important creditor (although Japan is currently larger), and America is the debtor.

- I agree.

* A stock market crash, banking crisis, or other major financial crisis might begin anywhere in the world, with Wall Street or China (Hong Kong or Shanghai) considered most likely.

- I agree.

* The crisis will probably spread faster than the 1½ years it took for the 1929 crash to spread to Europe, since the global financial system is much more highly interlocked and interdependent than it was in 1929. A period of 3-12 months is a reasonable estimate range.

- I agree.

* Once a financial crisis begins to seriously affect the US, creditor nations, led by China, will try to "save" the United States economy. In some scenarios, China and Japan may be competing with one another to provide the most help.

- I agree.
But, I realy do not see reason for "competition" between creditor nations?
Why? Probably because they would plane to invest in USA again after XX years and when (if) they get money back?
I am not sure.
Definitely, they want the same USA wanted before 1931 - to earn money... and 1931 - just to get back money.


* Americans will demand that other countries bail us out, saying that the only way to save the world economy is to save the American economy.

- Americans can demand that other countries bail US out - only with power of the bombs.
Germany did not "demand" anything (Garret explained that quite good).
Germany was simply - broken and on the bottom.
The Allies could pressure it more - but it could only go to the bankruptcy and probably even - Communism in Germany. This was the big concern at that time, but even with Communism as threat - France was very difficult to understand that Germany could not pay reparations anymore.


* Other countries will probably forgive, at least temporarily, the enormous public debt that America owes to them in the form of long-term Treasury bills. (I had previously assumed that when things got bad enough, the US Treasury itself would delay redemption of long-term Treasuries; Garrett's book raises the possibility that the creditor nations will be the ones to suggest that route.)

- Perhaps...
And definitely because of US bombing power - nothing other.


* Americans will become increasingly resentful and xenophobic toward the Chinese. This has already begun, especially in Congress. This will be a factor pushing us toward war with China.

- If you saying so.
But, that definitely supported my previously 2 statements:
US has always backed economy with military power...
It is clear direction in your speculations.
If you can not pay your debt back - just destroy the creditor.
(How simple it is - I do not know... but debt will be definitely forgiven)


* At some point, when the American financial crisis becomes extremely serious, and Americans are convinced that there'll be no more easy credit from China, Americans will immediately change from "spenders" to "savers." This will signal a massive change in behaviors and attitudes of the American people, and will also signal a return American self-dependence.

- I disagree.
In the last sentence you logically speculate an probably unprovoked (or bed "provoked") war against China.
Now you talking about "change of attitude" by Americans... to "savers".
From previous speculation (war against China)- I would suggest that, it will not be attitude changes by Americans...
This is also much easier to anticipate.


* If America follows the example of Germany in the 1920s and 1930s, then the American dollar will become worthless. I've had many e-mail queries about this, but I'm still extremely doubtful about it. There's a very big difference between America today and 1920s Germany: America owes no war debts or war reparations, and the latter was the primary motivation for the German devaluations. I still expect the CPI to fall 30% (which would imply dollar strength within the American economy internally), and I can imagine scenarios where the dollar can remain OK internationally, or can become very weak internationally. I don't know how to predict this now.

- Partialy agree.
There are definitely some differences between Germany 30-ties and US today.
- Germany was a broken country. US is the biggest Empire of the Planet today.
- Germany try to print out itself from the reparations and debt. It looks that US can print as much it will since its currency is the "world currency"... (That is an open question - since the financial US structure is much more bigger than real US economy)

... But there are similarities:
- Germany was very militarized, same as US today. (Huge amount of money coming from military industry which mean that this industry to work - "need" wars!)
- Germany lose a big war. US on the other side losing at least 2 "smaller" ones, although the amount of spent money in those wars are bigger then in 2WW.
- If the speculation about civilization war against China is correct - the huge military industry will be even bigger. It can perhaps helped "the people" to go out the crises... Same as Hitler mad with Germany 1931.


* Other factors pushing us toward war with China are the same as before -- the political and social instability within China itself, the volatility of the Taiwan issue, and long-standing disagreements between China and Japan.

- Sorry.
I do not understand?
"The political and social instability within China itself" - should perhaps be something as intern Chinese problem? What US has to do with it?
Taiwan - as well?
Similar for Japan and China?

Just at the end - with which money you think that US would invade China?
(definitely "invade" - because there are no chance that anybody invade US)
As I know, even Julie Cesar before he invaded Galien - firs check in the wallet... (Perhaps - in the new age the invaded nation will pay for invasion)
I don't know.