In my first note in this thread, I mentioned the name Henry Niman.
Niman had a lengthy interview where he discussed the situation.
Here are the links:
** Article:
http://www.recombinomics.com/News/04290 ... mic_5.html
** Summary of video
http://www.wpxi.com/health/19315326/detail.html
** Actual video
http://www.wpxi.com/video/19313969/index.html
Here are my notes from the 26 minute video:
Dr. Henry Niman wrote:
> It's a swine virus like 1918.
> 1/3 of the worl'ds population got infected in 1918-9. 3% of the
> people who got infected died.
> In 1918 followed the pattern it's following right now. Started
> in late spring, very mild, disappeared in the summer, and then it
> reemerged in the fall. That's when most of the deaths were.
> The at-risk group was previously healthy young adults. It
> attacked their immune system. That's what happened in Mexico.
> Most of the deaths in Mexico have been between the ages of 25-44.
> 1:50
> They took a typical path -- they were fine for 2-3 days, then it
> took a turn - atypical pneumonia - and then 10% died.
> There's no difference in the H1N1 virus in Mexico vs US. The
> difference is probably a timing issue -- they started in Jan,
> Feb. We're trailing them. We would have to have as many cases as
> in Mexico city, and then there'll be as many deaths. 3:35
> The virus may seem to disappear over the summer -- tho it may
> cause problems in the southern hemisphere. 3:50
> It's just been a few days since it entered the US, and now it's
> been spreading around the US rapidly. 5:00
> It's still mild, so even in Mexico, and the number of pneumonia
> cases is 2,000, and the number of deaths is around 150, about 10%.
> There are probably 200,000 cases in Mexico, so the vast majority
> today, have a fairly mild course, for today's early, mild form of
> the virus.
> The vaccine seed stocks are being made right now. So to get the
> vaccine, the seeds have to be grown to a large level. 10:20
> What's currently available are Rolenza and Tamiflu. The problem
> is that seasonal flu H1N1 is resistant to Tamiflu, and so as the
> virus moves thru the human population, including the southern
> hemisphere, it will interact with the seasonal h1n1, which is
> tamiflu resistant, and there's a good chance that the resistance
> will transfer over to the swine flu. So in the fall, the virus
> that emerges will probably be Tamiflu and Rolenza resistant.
> 11:40
> It's early - and we won't know for a while whether it follows the
> 1918 pattern. The virus is recombinant between human seasonal
> h1n1 and swine flu h1n1, the same as in 1918 -- the timing is the
> same, and the target populations are the same.
> There's going to be a very intensive vaccine effort, and the
> virus will be intensively watched.
> Most at-risk group will be healthy adults -- have a strong,
> response immune response, and it's the immune response that
> actually kills the patient.
> The very old and the very young don't have the strong response,
> and they're more likely to survive.
> Same virus in Mexico and US - so will be as severe. 20:56
Niman described the typical path of those who get sick: It seems OK
for 2-3 days, but then the patient develops pneumonia. This is most
dangerous for people in the 25-44 year old range, because these
people have strong immune systems. The disease creates a "cytokine
storm": the person's lungs overreact by generating a "storm" of
cytokines, chemicals that are produced by the immune system. The
stronger the immune system, the greater the overreaction, and the
more cytokines that are produced. The result is that the cytokines
flood the lungs and make breathing impossible. The very young and
the very old are less likely to die, because their immune systems
aren't as good.
According to Niman, there are three ways in which the current virus
is following the same path as the 1918 virus:
- Virus: It's the same kind of H1N1 swine virus.
- Timing: It's only starting to spread late in the flu season, and
it's very mild. (It actually started in Mexico in January or
February, and only now is spreading worldwide.) The 1918 flu was
very mild in the spring and summer, but became much more dangerous in
the Fall.
- Target demographic: 25-44 year olds, in 1918, and today.
It's very hard to get information about this situation, because
politicians are concerned more about avoiding panic, and
organizations like the CDC and WHO are under orders to play down the
threat. So it's impossible to be sure what's going on.
It seems to me that people should be stocking up on food and water,
and be prepared to say at home for a week or two.
Also, businesses should be preparing to be ordered to shut down.
That's what's happened in Mexico City, and there could well be the
same thing in New York and other large cities.
What percentages do we assign to these potential events? I get the
impression that a worldwide pandemic in the next month or so is close
to a certainty, although it may not cause a lot a deaths. But it
will shut down businesses and force people to stay at home.
What's the probability of a real 1918-like catastrophe in the Fall?
I get the impression that the probability is around 10-15% -- and
that figure is based on nothing but a gut feel. Still, a 15% chance
of catastrophe is a pretty high number.
Sincerely,
John
