Re: Swine Flu Pandemic
Posted: Tue Apr 28, 2009 9:25 pm
Hi everyone,
There was an all-hands meeting at CDC this morning, and I wanted to update everyone one some of the info that came out of that.
Before I do, I want to make the observation that the information I am getting as an "insider" is not much more than is available at the CDC website or any number of other reputable sources. One of the hallmarks of Rich Besser's CDC directorship is an extraordinary ammount of communication (he is still Acting Director, because we don't have an appointed Director yet, but I know that I and many of my colleagues hope he will be kept on). We were urged to communicate the information that was shared with us to our larger communities.
Re the specific question ("should we be walking around in masks?")- only if you want to. This was discussed at the meeting. The concern is that while a mask may make you feel more secure, it may be a false sense of security for two reasons: 1) it is hard to wear a mask all the time, and often times they are not well fitted, and 2) there is no solid evidence that masks reduce transmission of the virus, and there is very good evidence that good handwashing and keeping your distance from sick people will reduce your chances of getting sick...things that people might not do as well if they rely on a mask to keep them healthy.
Other interesting points:
a) This virus strain is susceptible to Tamiflu (and Relenza), but only people with very high risk factors (ie, pregnant women and people with underlying medical conditions such as COPD) should take it unless they actually have symptoms and live in an area where the virus is known to be active. This policy is to help keep the virus from becoming resistant to these medicines, and to keep the drug supply sufficient for people that are already sick.
b) Yes, there are expected to be deaths from this flu. Even the regular flu causes approx 35,000 deaths per year. So get your flu shot!
c) If you got your flu shot this year, good for you...but it probably won't protect you from this swine flu. The process of making a vaccine takes 4-6 months, and the first steps have already been started. Don't expect a vaccine 'til about September. However, we are fortunate that the regular flu season is near its end- this will most likely mitigate the number of cases in the USA and other northern hemisphere countries.
d) This swine flu contain genetic info from four differant elements (human, bird, and two swine sources). However, the standard flu circulating among pigs in North America already contains three of those four elements. Both the public health community and the intelligence community (ie, the CIA) believe this is an entirely natural occurance- there is no evidence of bioterrorism.
e) You can monitor the situation at www.cdc.gov/flu/swine. However, the CDC will almost certainly report numbers lower than than the media or the states. CDC makes a point of reporting cases only after the individual states have reported those cases, in order to respect for the individual state and local governments' right to make recommendations and reports to the media based on the most up-to-date information they have.
That's all I can remember for now. I'll keep you all posted.
A.
There was an all-hands meeting at CDC this morning, and I wanted to update everyone one some of the info that came out of that.
Before I do, I want to make the observation that the information I am getting as an "insider" is not much more than is available at the CDC website or any number of other reputable sources. One of the hallmarks of Rich Besser's CDC directorship is an extraordinary ammount of communication (he is still Acting Director, because we don't have an appointed Director yet, but I know that I and many of my colleagues hope he will be kept on). We were urged to communicate the information that was shared with us to our larger communities.
Re the specific question ("should we be walking around in masks?")- only if you want to. This was discussed at the meeting. The concern is that while a mask may make you feel more secure, it may be a false sense of security for two reasons: 1) it is hard to wear a mask all the time, and often times they are not well fitted, and 2) there is no solid evidence that masks reduce transmission of the virus, and there is very good evidence that good handwashing and keeping your distance from sick people will reduce your chances of getting sick...things that people might not do as well if they rely on a mask to keep them healthy.
Other interesting points:
a) This virus strain is susceptible to Tamiflu (and Relenza), but only people with very high risk factors (ie, pregnant women and people with underlying medical conditions such as COPD) should take it unless they actually have symptoms and live in an area where the virus is known to be active. This policy is to help keep the virus from becoming resistant to these medicines, and to keep the drug supply sufficient for people that are already sick.
b) Yes, there are expected to be deaths from this flu. Even the regular flu causes approx 35,000 deaths per year. So get your flu shot!
c) If you got your flu shot this year, good for you...but it probably won't protect you from this swine flu. The process of making a vaccine takes 4-6 months, and the first steps have already been started. Don't expect a vaccine 'til about September. However, we are fortunate that the regular flu season is near its end- this will most likely mitigate the number of cases in the USA and other northern hemisphere countries.
d) This swine flu contain genetic info from four differant elements (human, bird, and two swine sources). However, the standard flu circulating among pigs in North America already contains three of those four elements. Both the public health community and the intelligence community (ie, the CIA) believe this is an entirely natural occurance- there is no evidence of bioterrorism.
e) You can monitor the situation at www.cdc.gov/flu/swine. However, the CDC will almost certainly report numbers lower than than the media or the states. CDC makes a point of reporting cases only after the individual states have reported those cases, in order to respect for the individual state and local governments' right to make recommendations and reports to the media based on the most up-to-date information they have.
That's all I can remember for now. I'll keep you all posted.
A.