Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

4-Nov-11 World View -- Greece buckles to European demands and cancels referendum

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's press conference

** 4-Nov-11 World View -- Greece buckles to European demands and cancels referendum
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 04#e111104

Contents:
Greece buckles to European demands and cancels referendum
Referendum call forces historic changes
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's press conference
Following the script
Elements of the script
A little generational theory


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Europe, Greece, bailout, Nicolas Sarkozy,
Angela Merkel, George Papandreou, Ben Bernanke,
kicking the can down the road

I think it's an interesting question, though. If you know the cycle, can it be broken? Generational theory hasn't been around for long and generational dynamics even less than that, so not many know of it. If everyone or the majority of people did, could it affect the cycle?

I've always found it interesting how countries that pride themselves on "democracy" are so determined to never let the citizens have a say in how government operates. When that situation gets bad enough, you get a really nasty crisis, while the French Revolution always comes to mind, the little known War of the Triple Alliance was probably worse, with estimates as high as 90% of the male population killed. The Paraquayan government was determined to have NO citizen input in governance whatsoever, and that seems to make the crisis worse.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War

War, disease and "bad food" caused a population reduction of epic proportions.

It does feel like the world is following a script, but it seems the cycles are taking a bit longer. I suppose that makes sense as lifespans increase and people work longer.

Trevor wrote:I think it's an interesting question, though. If you know the cycle, can it be broken? Generational theory hasn't been around for long and generational dynamics even less than that, so not many know of it. If everyone or the majority of people did, could it affect the cycle?

An interesting question. I doubt the cycle can be broken. It's roots are too deep in Human Nature.

For instance, anyone with half a brain knows too much debt is bad for the individual and society. Yet, recent history demonstrates that people will spend like drunken sailors if someone will give them a line of credit. And the "smart people" are even worse about it than dumbasses like me.

But... Generational cycles and generational archetypes are not a bad thing if I understand them. They are essential to a modern and progressive society. Without them societies would all be traditional societies with each generation like the previous one, following herds of shaggy beasts up and down the Great Plains of North America trying to drive enough of them over cliffs so that the tribe doesn't starve before Spring.

Trevor wrote:I think it's an interesting question, though. If you know the cycle, can it be broken? Generational theory hasn't been around for long and generational dynamics even less than that, so not many know of it. If everyone or the majority of people did, could it affect the cycle?

Good question.

But, on the other hand, people do know the history, but they repeat the same mistakes anyway.

It appears that you must actually live through the history, or at least be raised by people who did, to value the historical lessons learned.

From the Weblog:

Today I won't attempt to go into the question of why everyone seems oblivious to China's massive preparations for war with the U.S., except to point out that the situation with Germany is the obvious analogy.

I believe it was the day before yesterday that my wife told me that what I've been telling her is right. Apparently Glen Beck told her and the rest of his audience that war between the US & China is imminent. Maybe he or his staff are reading this site. Or maybe he or his staff discovered John & Generational Dynamics the way I did via John's series of interviews on the Shrugging Out podcast.

I admit, I have quite an interest in history, which is what a lot of people lack. I've mentioned some of the stuff I've read here, what I've read independently about what's going to happen, and many clearly have no clue of the mistakes that we have made in the past that we are now doing again.

The thing that has me most concerned right now is the plan to penalize China. I suppose it's something that idiot politicians on both sides can agree on. When times are difficult, you blame the leaders in your country. When times are getting desperate, you blame outsiders, and since we're concerned about China, they're a very convenient target. I've read about Smoot-Hawley and one thing that clearly these people are not considering is the fact that China will retaliate. We strike at them, they hit us back, and so on. A trade war is harmful even under ideal circumstances. Right now... we may as well be committing suicide.

And just in case you're interested, I happen to be an early Millennial (born 1989)

Trevor wrote:I think it's an interesting question, though. If you know the cycle, can it be broken? Generational theory hasn't been around for long and generational dynamics even less than that, so not many know of it. If everyone or the majority of people did, could it affect the cycle?

The cycles are punctuated by Crisis Wars. They can be delayed or hastened, but history suggests that they can't be abolished.

However, the U.K. does seem to have skipped a scheduled Crisis War that was to occur roughly during the mid Victorian era.

It is fascinating to watch as more and more people make passing comments that touch on generational theory, yet none seem to put much weight behind them. Peggy Noonan, for example, makes such observations in nearly every column. Heck, just this week I happened to hear Howard Stern - of all people - go on a rant to the effect of "I knew that when my stupid generation took over everything would go to sh*t." Still, any connection to powerful historical cycles eludes them. Even the film Generation Zero, after outlining the cyclical nation of generational theory shifts to focusing on the Boomers, as if the current problems are unique to our time.

John has talked about his difficulty getting publicity and the reason seems to be that there is no bright side to the theory. No one wants to hear "the world is ending and there's nothing you can do about it."

Here what people want to hear:
A. Problem X was caused by idiots.
B. With our superior knowledge that they were idiots we can save the world
C. If we fail it will because everyone else was too stupid to embrace our solutions.

Even the most dire apocalyptic predictions offer something to do or reason to hope.
- Global warming will destroy the earth BUT if everyone recycles and drives a Prius there's hope
- Armageddon will bring a rain of fire and ravage mankind BUT you can repent and convert
- Mankind is overrun by a Zombie apocalypse BUT there's a chance someone will find a cure.
- There is a Generational Crisis every 70-90 years that will collapse the economy and lead to a genocidal world war...

Fascinating. What can we do with this information? Uhhh...hug you children and stock up on canned food?

People tend to be solution based. They desire usable information. Generational theory is fascinating, and, I believe, largely dead on, but it offers not obvious solution.

The book jacket on my used copy of The Fourth Turning has quotes from the some of the most prominent figures of the time - including both Al Gore and Newt Gingrich (Here's an interesting segment on the Strauss & Howe site about the public reception to their ideas:
http://www.fourthturning.com/html/word_of_mouth.html.
and here are blurbs from across the political spectrum (note that a good chunk of them indicate the theory should lead to "action."): http://www.fourthturning.com/html/word_of_mouth.html

So, our leaders are exposed to these ideas, but what can they do? Even if we had a president who fully accepted Generational Dynamics what would he do with that information? Give a speech to the nation explaining what a fourth turning is? As John has said of Ben Bernake, even if he knew what was going on he couldn't risk saying it. Maybe it could guide decisions behind the scenes, but, as we know, leaders are ultimately captive to the whims of the masses. President Xenakis would be thumped out of office by some sunny optimist with vague solutions.

So, let's say 50% of the population accepted this obscure academic theory of historical cycles? What would they do about it? Try to behave responsibly? Okay, so instead of 9 out of 10 bankers making reckless investments it would be 5 out of 10. Meanwhile, a good chunk of those young Generationalists who understand the theory will come to believe this knowledge gives them an advantage, which will justify taking risks (just look at the discussions on our Financial Forum).

Generational Dynamics is a Greek tragedy - the disaster is rooted in human nature. We are doomed to repeat mistakes because we are apparently wired to learn through direct experience. Our drive to ignore the lessons of our elders and take risks is the reason for our evolution, advancement and survival as a species - but it is also the seed our cyclical destruction.

Marshall Kane wrote:
Generational Dynamics is a Greek tragedy - the disaster is rooted in human nature. We are doomed to repeat mistakes because we are apparently wired to learn through direct experience. Our drive to ignore the lessons of our elders and take risks is the reason for our evolution, advancement and survival as a species - but it is also the seed our cyclical destruction.

Cyclical destruction AND cyclical regeneration. Don't forget about the hopeful side of the coin. The old has to go before the new can flourish. When an old skyscraper is blown down and it's rubble carted off it's a tragedy for it and those who value it. But it's actually a hopeful event because something better suited for the current conditions will replace it.

So those mistakes may not really be mistakes in the broader scheme of things. They may be essential to the development of Mankind.