10-Dec-11 World View -- Europe in historic split

[John]

10-Dec-11 World View -- Europe in historic split, after Britain opts out of eurozone deal

Turkey's exports reach a historic new record

** 10-Dec-11 World View -- Europe in historic split, after Britain opts out of eurozone deal
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 10#e111210

Contents:
Euro Zone leaders reach an agreement to save the euro
Hopes for ECB intervention are dashed once again
Bond yields for Italy's debt fall slightly
Britain opts out of the eurozone deal
Britain's 'veto' may represent historic turning point for EU
Turkey's exports reach a historic new record


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, David Cameron, Nicolas Sarkozy, Angela Merkel,
Britain, France, Germany, eurozone, Mario Draghi,
European Central Bank, ECB, Italy, Spain, Maastricht Treaty,
Turkey

[Trevor]

Well, Britain and France will likely be fighting each other and I think Germany will be on Britain's side, but the others are still unclear, at least to me.

[OLD1953]

A lot of that export business increase will prove to have been food and common materials going to Iraq. This is a one shot deal, which will be over in December.

This treaty will never pass. It requires nations to give up too much, at a time of rapidly growing nationalism. Greece would be the most immediate beneficiary, and I would not bet on Greece passing anything that required them to give up so much. This is France and Germany deciding what they want, and ignoring everyone else. Cameron was just the spokesman for the other 25.

[JULLIEN1]

Well, Britain and France will likely be fighting each other and I think Germany will be on Britain's side, but the others are still unclear, at least to me.

Very dubious : we simply have no more reasons to fight the UK than, say, Spain or Luxembourg. French nationalism is rising but it's currently targeting Muslims or demanding independence from the EU. Nationalists would see a British withdrawal as an example. As for an invasion of Britain by the EU, there is no European army for the moment.

[Marc]

Hi, Jullien,

From what I have seen written and have observed so far, I would have to agree with you. I do think that nations can "culturally evolve" to where warfare between them is highly unlikely; the chances of a war in the near future between the UK and France is perhaps only marginally higher than a war in the near future between, say, the USA and Canada. I would think that there would have to be something such as an absolutely enormous infusion of people into the UK and/or France, who either never shed anti-Western sentiments or who come to cultivate such sentiments, for there to be a really significant chance of warfare in the future between the two countries. As for the present and growing friction between the strong Northern European countries and the teetering peripheral European (or other European) countries, there may be a ton of vitriol between them presently and for several years to come, but bailouts, backstops, and some degree of economic depression seems likely to replace the outcome of a nasty intra-European war in the near future, in my opinion.

Warfare between nations is usually only really likely, I feel, when you have powerful undemocratic nations, or when you have tribal/ethnic factions where at least one or some of them really hate one or more of the other factions. And, this brings up an interesting point in how Fourth Turnings in the future may play out: if hundreds of years from now, through ongoing and future cultural tempering, if there are no "external enemies" to readily cause wars, what might cause the climax of such Fourth Turnings? Economic collapse crowned by nasty civil unrest that's generally short of civil war? But, maybe there will always be at least a few tribal/ethnic factions around which hate other factions, thus making external warfare very significantly possible for as long as there are humans on this planet.

Thanks again for the valuable European perspective, and for others' valuable thoughts as well. —Best regards, Marc