24-Dec-11 WV-Syria may be responsible for suicide bombings

[Marc]

If the scenario I just wrote can actually happen — and my gut feeling is that it would be quite rare, but not impossible — this could be thought of as sub-regions of a nation suddenly being hit with a Crisis, and causing a potential "saecular reset" for such sub-regions. If they lose the civil war, then the whole country reunites and no part of the country probably deviates from the country's ongoing saecular timeline. However, if sub-regions win, this would cause, I would think, a "First Turning reset" for the breakaway, victorious sub-regions.

PS: This concept may even relate in some way as to why, during this Fourth Turning in Britain and America, there have been problems with "flash mobs." "Gee, aren't those flash-mobbing kids supposed to be defanged, well-behaving Civic types?" Well, if you have regions of a country (such as certain particularly disadvantaged parts of inner cities) that have been "sociologically walled-off to some extent" from the rest of the country, these flash-mobbers may be, instead of "full Civics," a kind of "super-Nomad with perhaps Civic overtones." This may be even more pronounced if, during the initial Post-Unraveling portion of a Fourth Turning, things have not totally "gone to hell financially" due to bailouts and such: the rich kids are still availing themselves to all sorts of goodies; the TV and other media still extol the virtues of materialism and individualism; and the poor inner-city kids feel alienated and ornery and want to raise hell as a result. A nice total-war scenario would likely reunite the nation's kids to the same archetype to a large extent, but absent this "regeneracy event," I can see how you could get such generational subdivisions — and, hence, flash mobs in a Fourth Turning. —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

Just because they're the hero generation doesn't mean they're going to be perfect examples of humanity. For all the hype, crime is a lot lower than it was 15 years ago; we just hear about it more than we once did. As for me, I tend to be rather cheap, which is likely going to be a good thing when everything hits the fan.

A "First Turning Reset" is when there's a massive population change, either because of a huge influx of people or because a large segment are wiped out. Personally, I would consider the Eastern Front to be a reset for the Russians, because about 1/6th of their population was slaughtered. Even if it's not at the scheduled time, if an enemy attacks whose sole purpose is utter extermination, that can screw with the cycle and it's what I believe happened in their case.

[Marc]

Crime is indeed a lot lower in the United States than it was 15 years ago; it seems that 15 years ago, even someone running for the office of county dogcatcher had his or her electoral fate determined by how he or she felt about the death penalty and the hanging of malcreants (and not just rabid pit bulls) at high noon. I do indeed think that the most plausible explanation for this change is Generation-X moving into midlife and being replaced in the early-adulthood demographic by the Millennials. Yet, I can see how a portion of a generation can be "sequestered off" for various reasons and seem to act differently than the norm, including in regards to spontaneous group-fueled crime. It makes for an interesting ongoing sociological and generational study, I feel.

Finally, I'll add, the "shock of total war" manifests itself through population migration, population decimation, and the inherent shock of fighting the total war, I feel. But, I feel that we are on a similar page in regards to the effects of what total war can do in regards to saecular changes. Thanks again for sharing. —Best regards, Marc

[Marc]

As another irreverernt thought, I happened to be reading a few things about the Amish very recently. As most here know, the Amish are still very traditional in their lifestyles, with their continuing use of horse-drawn buggy transportation, their shunning of electricity in their homes, and their other rejections of modern technology. Yet, in the late 1960s, a goodly number of Amish families formed what are called the New Order Amish: many of them (but not all) are more liberal in regards to, for example, allowing telephones and electricity in their homes, among other relaxations of traditional Amish ways. While I don't have hard proof here, I would think that the Awakening period in the United States that got off the ground in the 1960s had something to do with the creation of the New Order Amish. Yet, the Amish (especially the sects which strongly retain the Old Order ways) still largely remove themselves from the lifestyles of most contemporary Americans. As the Fourth Turning picks up in the United States, the Amish will likely be removed from it to a heavy (but not complete) extent, due to their self-reliant living and self-imposed sequestration. This is especially true if there were to be a major war that breaks out between the United States and a major belligerent (e.g., China), as the Amish would mostly be conscientious objectors in such a war.

As such, I think that a country can have subgroups that are heavily sequestered off from the saecular experience that most of its citizens experience, but even the most sequestered of them would not likely escape significant effects of the country's overall saecular experience. But, again, this phenomenon can make, I feel, for behavioral patterns that seem to be out of the saecular norm for atypical groupings of citizens of a country. —Best regards, Marc

[mannfm11]

Genocide law is some of the most anti free speech activity on earth. It is either endorse the official position or go to prison. Much of the political correct nonsense we have in the US is the beginning of such nonsense as is being passed in France on this occasion. Though the law may be in support of those martyred, it is also an attack on the Turkish people as well, much the same activity as the law itself is supposed to prevent. You can mention the world NAZI when describing these people in the Eurozone and get a negative response out of people, but that is a pretty close approximation of what such legal maneuver is. I wonder what the penalty is going to be to admit the French Legislature and all that is connected with it, including the President and Prime Minister are idiots?

[Marc]

Genocide law is some of the most anti free speech activity on earth. It is either endorse the official position or go to prison. Much of the political correct nonsense we have in the US is the beginning of such nonsense as is being passed in France on this occasion. Though the law may be in support of those martyred, it is also an attack on the Turkish people as well, much the same activity as the law itself is supposed to prevent. You can mention the world NAZI when describing these people in the Eurozone and get a negative response out of people, but that is a pretty close approximation of what such legal maneuver is. I wonder what the penalty is going to be to admit the French Legislature and all that is connected with it, including the President and Prime Minister are idiots?

I can understand your position here in regards to laws that disallow people in a particular country to state what are felt to be lies, based upon reliable evidence, pertaining to recent genocides. In a related vein, many are aware here that Germany, as well as other countries which were seriously impacted by the Holocaust genocide (e.g., Austria, Poland, Hungary, France), have laws against Holocaust denial and against the display of Nazi symbols. In these countries, I can see the sense of anguish and embarrassment in allowing things such as openly-flying Nazi flags, or even the distribution of neo-Nazi materials. These countries seem to struggle with balancing trying to "keep the ugly past at bay" with placing limits on free speech.

The Armenian genocide forms a regrettable and ugly part of the Turkish past. Yet, despite this, I likewise wonder about the wisdom of France passing a law against defaming or slandering the Armenian genocide when what the law might do most is help push Turkey even more into the arms of its Sunni-nation brethren and maybe even encourage more mass loss of life someday. If France must pass a law like this, it may show the best wisdom in at least waiting until a First Turning to do it. —Best regards, Marc

[Marc]

Okay, one more thing: With Israel now strongly flirting with passing a law similar to what France has partially passed (dealing with making denial of the Armenian genocide illegal), I'm left wondering just how much of the motivation in these laws is a myopic idealistic stance of Boomers, as opposed to a nihilistic stance among especially the X'ers in just wanting to piss off Turkey — with few Silent Generation folks still available to put a kibosh on these laws. Maybe it's a fusion of all of this. —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

I must admit, I believe denying the Holocaust is a disgusting thing to do. Repulsive as it is, though, they have the right to say that, because when you start censoring speech, where does it end?

I sometimes wonder if France will fall into insurrection, since hatred is growing on both sides of the aisle. Wish there was something that could prevent it, but it doesn't look like there's anything that can be done.

[Marc]

Hi, Trevor,

Along with the stuff about the Amish, I was recently viewing some YouTube videos about the '68ers in France: French baby-boomers who really raised hell in France in May of 1968 and who practically brought the country to its knees. There were enough moderating forces to keep that from happening (as one might generally expect in an Awakening period), but it was tense. However, in this current Crisis period, I'm seriously wondering if the French law that was partially passed to make it illegal to deny the Armenian genocide is being heavily fueled by Islamophobia, despite my own profound distaste in anyone denying the Armenian genocide or any genocide.

I also feel that it is wise to allow as much free speech as possible, but again, given Europe's troubled history, I can see why these anti-genocidal-defamation laws exist or are being promoted. And, this time, the passing of more such laws in Europe may have a negative effect of causing tinderbox relations between, say, France and Turkey or between Israel and Turkey, and possibly lead to more bloodshed. Thus, I think we are on similar pages thought-wise with all of this. —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

Islamophobia is on the rise and despite what they like to say, it's getting worse in Europe, matching or even surpassing our problems. I would imagine it's because they have a great Muslim population than we do. In France, the under-30 population, or their version of the Hero generation, about 1/3 of them are Muslim. This is looking like it's going to be more unpleasant, and let's not forget the problems they're already having.

But it's far from one-sided. Radicalism is growing in strength as well and many are afraid to speak out, although I'm sure part of that is cultural, since they believe that if there is a problem, it should be dealt with within the community, not by outsiders.