27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is Israel/Iran war?

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is Israel/Iran war?

Post by John »

27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is war between Israel and Iran?


Analysts claim that North Korea's new missiles are fake

** 27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is war between Israel and Iran?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 27#e120427




Contents:
Analysts claim that North Korea's new missiles are fake
How close is Iran to making a nuclear strike on Israel?
Chances of a preemptive nuclear strike by Iran on Israel
Azerbaijan clarifies its relationship with Israel


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, North Korea, Syria, Iran, Azerbaijan,
Israel

Trevor
Posts: 1209
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: 27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is Israel/Iran war?

Post by Trevor »

I wouldn't agree with that entirely. Iran may not be willing to strike at Israel directly, but they're certainly willing to do so on an indirect basis, using Syria and Hezbollah as their proxies to attack Israel, in addition to supplying weapons to the Palestinians.

Not only that, but I'm still skeptical of Israel making a direct strike. We've been talking about doing that for several years, with every pundit in the world proclaiming: "we're going to see a strike within a month". and yet we haven't seen one. Now, granted, I may be wrong about this, but we'll have to wait and see.

JULLIEN1

Re: 27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is Israel/Iran war?

Post by JULLIEN1 »

Well, that's really dramatic -- dropping a nuclear weapon into the Mediterranean Sea to generate a tsunami to wipe out Israel.
It seems unrealistic : I'm not aware of any underwater nuclear test (such as Operation Crossroads or French nuclear tests in Muruora) creating a tsunami. However there would have been a large amount of radioactive contamination.

OLD1953
Posts: 946
Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2009 11:16 pm

Re: 27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is Israel/Iran war?

Post by OLD1953 »

Anyone crying "dirty bomb" is simply using scare words to generate signal reactions in his audience. Given a choice between any other ABC type weapon and being near the explosion point, I'll take the dirty bomb every time. Chernobyl is the biggest dirty bomb imaginable, and the 2005 WHO report admits they overstated the danger by thousands of percent. Though you have to read it carefully, admitting that came hard to them, keep in mind the size of the population WHO said was affected and sift the data from the obfuscation. But the statement "the largest public health problem created by Chernoybl was mental issues created by misinformation" is utterly classic, given WHO's role in dissemination of that misinformation.

This appears to me to be someone trying to gin up support for an immediate attack by causing fear in his audience.

The report on North Korea and their faux weapons is no surprise, NK is flat broke and weapons development is expensive, especially if you also have to support multimillionaire lifestyles of the party elite. They just do not have the money for both.

Trevor
Posts: 1209
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: 27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is Israel/Iran war?

Post by Trevor »

I actually read that some of the people in the Chernobyl disaster were quite literally frightened to death. They were told that all these real horrible, horrible things were going to happen to them when they weren't. Many estimated that up to a million people were going to die because of it; the true number was roughly 4,000 in the long term.

OLD1953
Posts: 946
Joined: Tue Aug 11, 2009 11:16 pm

Re: 27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is Israel/Iran war?

Post by OLD1953 »

The true number is so small that the actual figure is unknown, outside of people present on the site when the reactor underwent a steam and hydrogen explosion and broke open the core elements and scattered them to the wind. Again, read the report carefully, disregarding people on the property during and immediately after the explosion and people who went in to help correct matters, the number who are supposed to die from the off site radiation exposure is measured to be below minimum statistical measures, that 4000 is simply the largest it can possibly be and fit the actual arcturial numbers for Europe. The true number could actually be negative 4000, 4000 lives that were extended because that fits the numbers exactly as well as the WHO report. In other words, they actually found zero offsite that weren't due to fear. I make no claims either way, but the correct way to express those numbers is a range from -4000 to +4000.

Goes back to something I've said here before, though perhaps not this explicitly, it's neither the problem nor the solution that's the issue, it's the fear. People are scared to death of global warming and radiation and impacts on the environment and it drives them crazy. If you examine these issues you find they are ginned up to the point of insanity, there is not nearly the risk that's commonly believed to exist. That's not saying things are risk free, just that there are problems and solutions, and it doesn't help to turn a fair sized problem into an immense mountain that cannot be overcome in the public mind.

Take sea level rise. Average person would tell you it'll be up to the mountain tops by 2100 if we don't all go live in communes.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2 ... copenhagen

Now, I'ma gonna tell you, ten percent of the worlds population does not live that close to the ocean without a sea wall, because they'd all be dead after the first storm. How about adding a meter to the sea wall? Is that so incredibly hard with an 80 year time frame? And, of course, that 10 percent figure is about 99% too high. And in a century we'll be on the other side of the singularity and who the hell knows what they'll do!

Global warming exists yes, it's a problem, yes, it's absolutely not THE END OF THE WORLD AS WE KNOW IT! There is just too much irresponsible crap being produced, and for some reason people just lap it up.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: 27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is Israel/Iran war?

Post by John »

OLD1953 wrote: > Goes back to something I've said here before, though perhaps not
> this explicitly, it's neither the problem nor the solution that's
> the issue, it's the fear. People are scared to death of global
> warming and radiation and impacts on the environment and it drives
> them crazy. If you examine these issues you find they are ginned
> up to the point of insanity, there is not nearly the risk that's
> commonly believed to exist. That's not saying things are risk
> free, just that there are problems and solutions, and it doesn't
> help to turn a fair sized problem into an immense mountain that
> cannot be overcome in the public mind.
Here's what always astonishes me:
  • People on the left are scared to death of global warming.
  • People on the right are scared to death that the Muslims
    are going to impose Sharia law in Washington.
  • Nobody gives a second thought to China's military buildup,
    preparing for war with the U.S.
John

Trevor
Posts: 1209
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: 27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is Israel/Iran war?

Post by Trevor »

I believe they call it "climate change" now. That's pretty misleading, due to the fact that climate changes all the time. Here's a question I frequently have for them: if we have a difficult time predicting what the weather will be in 3-4 days, how can we tell what it's going to be in 100 years?

I've also repeatedly mentioned the danger that China poses to us. Some actually are willing to listen, realizing that they're a threat or at least were willing to keep enough of an open mind to listen to me. All too often, however, I hear one of two responses. On the right, they say: "We can beat China with one hand behind our back; the real danger is Sharia Law and Muslims." The left (along with Ron Paul supporters) state: "China's no threat; that's just a lie of the Military-Industrial Complex to justify their war profiteering."

thomasglee
Posts: 686
Joined: Tue Feb 23, 2010 11:07 pm
Location: Texas

Re: 27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is Israel/Iran war?

Post by thomasglee »

John wrote:
OLD1953 wrote: > Goes back to something I've said here before, though perhaps not
> this explicitly, it's neither the problem nor the solution that's
> the issue, it's the fear. People are scared to death of global
> warming and radiation and impacts on the environment and it drives
> them crazy. If you examine these issues you find they are ginned
> up to the point of insanity, there is not nearly the risk that's
> commonly believed to exist. That's not saying things are risk
> free, just that there are problems and solutions, and it doesn't
> help to turn a fair sized problem into an immense mountain that
> cannot be overcome in the public mind.
Here's what always astonishes me:
  • People on the left are scared to death of global warming.
  • People on the right are scared to death that the Muslims
    are going to impose Sharia law in Washington.
  • Nobody gives a second thought to China's military buildup,
    preparing for war with the U.S.
John
John, this perplexes me too! I have many well educated/travelled friends and ANY time I mention China, they say things like, "China could never invade the US and we would beat them easily". To which I reply, China doesn't need to invade the US to cause us hell. They will also say things, like, "well, we owe China too much money. They won't go to war with us because they need our money and our economy to survive". Or they have a myriad of other very ignorant and short-sighted views. I try telling them that throughout history countries have waged wars against foes they never really had an ability to conquer, but that didn't stop them. I am surprised by how ignorant our society has become.
Psalm 34:4 - “I sought the Lord, and he answered me and delivered me from all my fears.”

Trevor
Posts: 1209
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: 27-Apr-12 World View -- How close is Israel/Iran war?

Post by Trevor »

and that's what worries me. If we're as unprepared against China as we were against Japan 70 years ago, we have a strong possibility of losing this war. I do not want to see my country in ruins because of our short-sightedness. I even know someone who used to be in the Air Force that said something similar, telling me that China would have no hope of victory against us and dismissing any threat they pose.

One thing I have noticed is that many of the people who warn of the possibility and are trying to prepare for it are the few silents and even a couple G.I.s that are still in positions of influence.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 63 guests