8-May-12 World View- Putin becomes president of Russia again

[John]

The conflict risk graphic is supposed to be my assessment of the
likelihood of a war in each region in the next 6-12 months. I just
don't consider it likely that there'll be a war in Europe in the next
6-12 months.

Do you disagree?

[Trevor]

No, I still believe that the top risk is currently in the Middle East. The last spurt of violence between Israel and the Palestinian territories stopped about 3 years ago. I still think it's extremely risky with the Arab Spring going on and it's one reason why we haven't intervened in Syria.

I've actually talked to a couple of people from Israel online, looking at websites, youtube, etc. What I'm noticing is a lot of fear on their part, feeling like if they don't do something, their country will be destroyed. They're worried about who's taken power in Egypt, meaning that they consider themselves surrounded. I've heard a similar sentiment among Palestinians. As worried as I might be about China, I would put the risk slightly lower for them.

Btw, I looked through the earlier archives and it sounded like WWIII was expected by the 2007-2008 time frame.

[gerald]

John:
I do not know, but I hope not, things can get nasty if the situation is just right, kind of like an avalanche, it just keeps piling up until it lets go. I hope you are right that Europe stays green, Yellow would indicate a risk of war or internal conflict ( civil war or revolution). And then there is Nigel Farage's comments, May 9,2012 http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nigel-far ... it-iceberg
I guess it may be a matter of semantics. However if one were to consider the blood that flowed from the war in Yugoslavia, --- would you consider Europe at that time to be green, yellow or red?
Or does the area of the blood letting determine the status?