13-May-12 World View -- China denies preparing for war

[John]

13-May-12 World View -- China denies preparing for war with the Philippines


China increasingly resembles late 1930s Nazi Germany

** 13-May-12 World View -- China denies preparing for war with the Philippines
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 13#e120513



Contents:
World View will resume on Thursday
China blames Philippines for escalating tensions and endangering Chinese nationals
China denies preparing for war with the Philippines
China repudiates international arbitration
It's 'strategic pivot' to Asia brings America and Philippines closer
China increasingly resembles late 1930s Nazi Germany


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, China, Philippines, Luzon,
Scarborough Shoal, Huangyan Island,
International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea, ITLOS,
Nazi Germany

[Trevor]

I admit, this really does sound ominous. Even today, the Philippines would have no realistic chance of repelling China for very long unless we got involved. Interesting way or reporting; they deny that China is preparing for war and yet they state that "If one mistakes China's kindness for weakness and regards China as a 'paper dragon' as instigated by some onlookers, he is terribly wrong,"

In WWII, Britain and France appeased Germany because of the destruction of WWI. It may have been a non-crisis war, but it was an exceptionally costly one and it was stated that most long mid-cycle periods have them. I'm seeing a similar sentiment in the United States. The war in Afghanistan is winding down and there's a strong feeling of isolationism. There's no will for another war and if they're smart, they'll wait until we've downsized our military. As Napoleon said, "Never interrupt your enemy while he is making a mistake."

On the other hand, I sometimes wish it would break out. The longer they have to build up their military, the worse this war is ultimately going to be.

[Reality Check]

I am not sure Obama would defend Formosa, Vietnam or the Philippines from a Chinese attack.

But it would seem much more difficult to ignore an invasion of the Philippines than either Vietnam or Formosa.

Obama, the lawyer could claim that the United States already legally recognized Formosa as part of China and Obama could also claim that the government of Formosa somehow provoked the Chinese attack.

Vietnam is a former enemy.

The Philippines is a former U.S. protectorate and Philippine military units served in the U.S. army before and during World War II and fought side by side with the U.S. soldiers against the Japanese. The Philippines is also a strong current ally with the U.S. in the war on terror. Individual Filipino citizens also volunteer and serve in the United States military to this day.

The many, many Islands of Philippines are also much farther away from main land China than either Formosa or Vietnam. An attempt by China to occupy some of the Philippine islands with troops and to re-supply those troops from mainline China would be subject to attack from the air and from dozens of U.S. attack and guided missile submarines in the Seas around the Philippines from day one of the invasion. Such submarine attacks could be launched without even declaring war on China and China would be forced to either declare war on the U.S., publicly deny the losses they were suffering, or blame them on the Philippines.

In all it seems that China attacking and attempting to occupy any of the Philippine islands, prior to attacking Formosa or Vietnam, is a much less likely scenario than the first military campaign by China being against Formosa or Vietnam.

[Trevor]

I can imagine that their first attempt may well be something minor, to test their new military and judge the response of their enemies, chiefly us. Right now, it looks like it may well be the Philippines. They're in a crisis era as well and thus will fight in the same way.

We may be as well, but just like the first world war, we have little will to get involved in another one. Even so, we don't seem quite as blind to China as we once were to Japan.

[mannfm11]

China appears to be worse than Germany. At least Germany had some kind of validity to their claims. What China is claiming here bears little resembalance to reality. I hate to plead insanity, but if I was President, there would be a front of the stove idea on how to take China out with whatever means necessary. It appears to me the Chinese aren't merely intent on dominating manufacturing trade, but intent on stealing everything that isn't tied down. They have reversed engineered everything under the sun and counterfeited what ever they laid their hands on. They run cyber terrorism in all directions. it is one thing to commercially and diplomatically tie up resources, but to grab them from these states under duress is another. If we back down in this matter, I think the USA and the West is done.

[Reality Check]

China appears to be worse than Germany. At least Germany had some kind of validity to their claims. What China is claiming here bears little resembalance to reality. ... it is one thing to commercially and diplomatically tie up resources, but to grab them from these states under duress is another. If we back down in this matter, I think the USA and the West is done.

The United States ignored the early phases of both World War I ( 1914 - 1917 in Europe ) and the Early Stages of World War II ( Sep 1939 to DEC 1941 in Europe ) and even longer in Asia ( Japanese attack on China and U.S. evacuation of U.S. Armed Forces from China to the Philippines ).

The U.S. came out of those wars in much better shape than Western Powers who started fighting in 1939. Russia also set out the early years of World War II and it also came out of World War II as a Super Power.

So the argument can be made that counter punching is a winning strategy.

[Trevor]

The United States ignored the early phases of both World War I ( 1914 - 1917 in Europe ) and the Early Stages of World War II ( Sep 1939 to DEC 1941 in Europe ) and even longer in Asia ( Japanese attack on China and U.S. evacuation of U.S. Armed Forces from China to the Philippines ).

The U.S. came out of those wars in much better shape than Western Powers who started fighting in 1939. Russia also set out the early years of World War II and it also came out of World War II as a Super Power.

So the argument can be made that counter punching is a winning strategy.

One of the major reasons for that was because we have historically been protected by two vast oceans. Unfortunately, they're not nearly as effective as they once were. Furthermore, Japan and Germany were much smaller than we were, geographically, economically, and population-wise. None of those will be the case with China. We can beat them today, but a few years from now, it could be a different story.