Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

27-Jun-12 World View -- Turkey's army on red alert, threatening retaliation against Syria

Egan-Jones Ratings downgrades German debt another notch

** 27-Jun-12 World View -- Turkey's army on red alert, threatening retaliation against Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 27#e120627


Contents:
Turkey's army on red alert, threatening retaliation against Syria
Assad says that Syria is in a 'real war'
Egan-Jones Ratings downgrades German debt another notch
China's economic slowdown deeper than expected


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Turkdy, Recep Tayyip Erdogan,
Syria, Bashar al-Assad, Germany, Egan-Jones, China

It looks like Assad's hoping to try and redirect the conflict, either to Turkey or Israel. Btw, did a little more research on the Syrian Uprising and you're right, it's not a crisis war.

With China, I wouldn't be surprised if the growth estimate could end up being cut again. In the beginning of the year, it was estimated to be around 9.5 percent. A few months ago, it was cut down to 8.2 percent; now it's down to 7.5 percent. It's quite possible that they'll end up cutting it again.

Trevor wrote:It looks like Assad's hoping to try and redirect the conflict, either to Turkey or Israel. Btw, did a little more research on the Syrian Uprising and you're right, it's not a crisis war.

Starting a war with Turkey would be suicide for the Assad regime. It would justify NATO and Turkey intervening in what is at most a Syrian civil war at this point.

It would also be a big blow to Russia's economy if they supported Syria in such a war. Turkey is one of Russia's major trading partners these days.

Syria is not run by risk takers according to my understanding of Generational Theory.

On the other hand Turkey might start such a war based on Generational Theory because they might ignore the economic risk of loss of trade with Russia, and the risk of a possible conflict with Russia, and instead take a risky move seeking to become a super power among Sunni Arab, and Sunni non-Arab, nations, and seeking to lead those nations on the world stage.

Even in non-crisis eras, economic connections don't prevent many wars. The Europeans fought one war after another in spite of them, as did different Indian tribes, etc.

I think Turkey is actually in a 5th turning, making them even more likely to do something stupid. No, Syria could not win against them, but it's something that could spark a major war in the region.

Trevor wrote:
It looks like Assad's hoping to try and redirect the conflict, either to Turkey or Israel. Btw, did a little more research on the Syrian Uprising and you're right, it's not a crisis war

Trevor wrote:
... No, Syria could not win against them, but it's something that could spark a major war in the region.

If Syria's in a non-crisis era and Syria can not win, then why would Assad, the dictator of Syria, seek to start a war with Turkey?

He's trying to reunite his country and thinks that he'll be able to do that with an external enemy. Iran's using the same logic, but in both cases, it won't work nearly as well as they expect it to.

The only reason Assad would start a war with Turkey is if he was doing it at the request of Russia and Iran.

Russia and Iran might be seeking to expand their position in the Caucuses at the expense of Turkey's allies in the Caucuses.

Assad would still likely be committing suicide for his regime, but Russia and Iran might be promising to protect him even if they do not intend to, or even if they are simply unable to.

Assad may see that he is losing anyway as a result of Sunni Arab intervention, so he may see his only chance is being saved by allies Russia and Iran.

Russia is sending "trip wire" troops to Syria in the form of hundreds of Russian marines on ships.

Russia may see it as a win-win scenario where an attack on Syria becomes Turkey starting a war with Russia and a justification for Russia to retaliate against Turkey's allies in the Caucuses. Putin is a risk taker as the countries of Georgia and Ukraine well know.

Trevor wrote:He's trying to reunite his country and thinks that he'll be able to do that with an external enemy. Iran's using the same logic, but in both cases, it won't work nearly as well as they expect it to.

Sunni Arabs, the majority of the population in Syria, will not view Turkey, controlled by a Sunni Islamist government, and coming to the aid of the Sunni Arab revolt, as an external threat to Syria or themselves. Starting a war with Turkey will not end the Sunni Arab rebellion in Syria, unless it results in the Sunni Arabs winning a civil war in Syria and taking over as the government of Syria.

As I said, it's not going to work. It might do something, but there are also plenty of Syrians who will say that he brought this upon himself, especially after over 10,000 have been slaughtered.

Trevor wrote: It looks like Assad's hoping to try and redirect the conflict, either to Turkey ...

Trevor wrote:As I said, it's not going to work. It might do something, but there are also plenty of Syrians who will say that he brought this upon himself, especially after over 10,000 have been slaughtered.

If the leadership in the Assad regime are risk averse during a non-crisis era, then why would they even try it ( starting a war with Turkey ) when everyone, even you and I, know it is high risk and has a high probability of failing and resulting in the current minority sect government losing everything in Syria?

Do you believe Assad and the ruling generals are simply stupid, compared to casual observers like ourselves?