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23-Jul-12 World View -- IMF will end bailout for Greece, possibly forcing exit from euro currency


Food price surge expected after worst U.S. drought in 50 years

** 23-Jul-12 World View -- IMF will end bailout for Greece, possibly forcing exit from euro currency
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 23#e120723



Contents:
Food price surge expected after worst U.S. drought in 50 years
Food price surge may lead to global riots, as in 2008
IMF will end bailout for Greece, possibly forcing exit from euro currency
Analysis: Euro crisis is saving Germany tens of billions
Iran announces multiple currency exchange rates
Catholic Priests protest Church attacks in Vietnam


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Food and Agriculture Organization, FAO, drought,
corn prices, wheat prices, International Monetary Fund, IMF,
European Commission, EC, European Central Bank, ECB,
Greece, Spain, Italy, Germany, Denmark, Iran,
Vietnam, Catholic Church, Tay-Son rebellion, Ho Chi Minh

So it looks like Europe will kick the can down the road yet again.
John, I once asked you why we cannot kick the can down the road forever. You replied that evemtually, you run out of road.
How will we know when we are reaching the end of the road in Europe?

Tom Mazanec wrote:So it looks like Europe will kick the can down the road yet again.
John, I once asked you why we cannot kick the can down the road forever. You replied that evemtually, you run out of road.
How will we know when we are reaching the end of the road in Europe?

I think you already know that there's no way to predict that time in
advance.

There's always another way to try to kick the can down the road, but
it's becoming more apparent to everyone that nothing is working.
There are now three crises going on in Europe, and Europe can only
handle one crisis at a time. At some point, either now or in the
future (and probably the not too distant future), there'll be a
massive change in public attitude, resulting in a panic, and that will
cause a domino effect leading to a total crash. In fact, I've spoken
of a "mini-panic" in the recent past, and that's the early sign that a
full-scale panic is gathering. Once the panic occurs, Europe will run
out of road.

John

John wrote:

Tom Mazanec wrote:So it looks like Europe will kick the can down the road yet again.
John, I once asked you why we cannot kick the can down the road forever. You replied that evemtually, you run out of road.
How will we know when we are reaching the end of the road in Europe?

I think you already know that there's no way to predict that time in
advance.

There's always another way to try to kick the can down the road, but
it's becoming more apparent to everyone that nothing is working.
There are now three crises going on in Europe, and Europe can only
handle one crisis at a time. At some point, either now or in the
future (and probably the not too distant future), there'll be a
massive change in public attitude, resulting in a panic, and that will
cause a domino effect leading to a total crash. In fact, I've spoken
of a "mini-panic" in the recent past, and that's the early sign that a
full-scale panic is gathering. Once the panic occurs, Europe will run
out of road.

As long as the paper money is holding value they can always print more money and do another bail out. When the paper money is losing value fast this no longer works. When they get hyperinflation they are out of road.

I actually think that if someone carefully studied enough factors around hyperinflation you could do much better at predicting them. Currently the best we have is that if government debt is over 80% of GNP and government deficit is over 40% of spending (so nearly spending $2 for every $1 in taxes) then a country that prints its own money probably gets hyperinflation in a few years. I have a list of other possible things that one might use to better time the prediction of hyperinflation but have not done the studies to see what really works better.

http://howfiatdies.blogspot.com/2012/05 ... ation.html

There is around $15 trillion in bonds coming due in the next couple years. With interest rates below inflation rates some people may not roll over their bonds. I expect the central banks to keep buying lots of bonds and even more as people don't roll over bonds. At some point I expect the central banks to be the majority buyers of bonds and then the only buyers of bonds. When central banks buy bonds they usually do so with new money.

http://www.financialsense.com/contribut ... ania-begin