16-Oct-12 World View -- Scotland independence from UK

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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16-Oct-12 World View -- Scotland independence from UK

Post by John »

16-Oct-12 World View -- England and Scotland agree to a referendum on Scottish independence

Germany does U-turn and rules out 'Staatsbankrott' for Greece


** 16-Oct-12 World View -- England and Scotland agree to a referendum on Scottish independence
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 16#e121016




Contents:
England and Scotland agree to a referendum on Scottish independence
European negotiations for Greece bailout will miss another deadline
Germany does U-turn and rules out 'Staatsbankrott' for Greece


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, England, Scotland, David Cameron, Alex Salmond,
Battle of Bannockburn, War of the Roses, Armada war,
English Civil War, Oliver Cromwell, Glorious Revolution,
War of the Spanish Succession, Battle of Blenheim,
Battle of Malplaquet, Greece, troika, EC, ECB, IMF,
Kick the Can Theory, Germany, Wolfgang Schäuble, Staatsbankrott,
Sweden, Anders Borg

Tannosk

Re: 16-Oct-12 World View -- Scotland independence from UK

Post by Tannosk »

One imagines that the whole English-Scottish narrative might be persuasive - but it is difficult to be persuaded by when it gets almost all of its basic facts wrong.

I could launch into a long spiel pointing out, for example, how implausible it would be for Protestant Scotland in 1588 to support Catholic Spain in a bid to put the reviled Catholic former Queen of Scots on the throne of Protestant England, or how unlikely it would have been for Scotland to fight England two years after the Union, as you imply (FWIW, pre-Union Scotland was neutral in the War of the Spanish Succession).

But regarding the current situation I will bring you up. You describe the differences between Scots and English in religious terms, which makes no sense because there is no significant religious difference between English and Scots. Your examples are groups that are or have relatively recently been engaged in fighting one another - yet there is no violent animosity between English and Scots and there is no significant chance that the independence referendum will result any form of armed conflict or dispute. If you're trying to analyse English and Scots in the same way as Irish Protestants and Irish Catholics you're going to misunderstand what's going on.

And you describe Scotland as "demanding independence" - yet over the last twenty years polls have consistently shown that Scots oppose independence by a factor of about two to one. In fact, the polling suggests that the prospect of Scottish independence is significantly more popular in England than it is in Scotland. A great part of the pro-independence package is a promise that not much would change with independence - that an independent Scotland would keep the pound, keep the uncontrolled border, even keep common citizenship and Scottish membership of the United Kingdom (never mind that that would seem to be a contradiction in terms). The referendum has come because an SNP government was voted in, not because there's necessarily a clamour for independence.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: 16-Oct-12 World View -- Scotland independence from UK

Post by John »

Reading your posting, one might think that I made the whole thing up.
And yet there they were, Cameron and Salmond, the other day agreeing
to a referendum vote on Scotland's independence. So there must be
something going on.
Tannosk wrote: > But regarding the current situation I will bring you up. You
> describe the differences between Scots and English in religious
> terms, which makes no sense because there is no significant
> religious difference between English and Scots. Your examples are
> groups that are or have relatively recently been engaged in
> fighting one another - yet there is no violent animosity between
> English and Scots and there is no significant chance that the
> independence referendum will result any form of armed conflict or
> dispute. If you're trying to analyse English and Scots in the same
> way as Irish Protestants and Irish Catholics you're going to
> misunderstand what's going on.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, people don't go to
war because of religion. They use religion as an excuse for why they
were going to war anyway. As I sometimes like to say, "It's not that
religion causes war; it's that war causes religion."

So the fight in Ireland isn't over religion either. It's an ethnic
conflict between indigenous Gaelic Irish people versus descendants
of invading English and Scottish people.

I'm aware of the polls that say that most Scots don't want
independence. But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics,
nationalism is growing almost everywhere in the world, in countries
going deeper into a generational Crisis era, and so the polls from
previous years are almost completely irrelevant. If Scotland follows
the trend of other countries and regions -- Catalonia, China, for
example -- then nationalism will continue to increase, though the
"target" of the nationalism may change as the world's situation
changes. We'll see.

gerald
Posts: 1681
Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 10:34 pm

Re: 16-Oct-12 World View -- Scotland independence from UK

Post by gerald »

John, on your masthead you have a chart --"State of the world" - last up dated February 12, 2011, conflict level next 6 to 12 months, Europe - low risk.

Considering the state of Europe today do you still think so?

There appear to be others that may have a different opinion.

http://rt.com/news/switzerland-prepares ... nrest-263/

Professor Schindler predicts that, “if the next Anders Brievik were to target Muslims, not fellow Europeans, things could get unimaginably ugly very quickly,” which could trigger widespread Muslim uprisings in Europe.

gerald
Posts: 1681
Joined: Sat May 02, 2009 10:34 pm

Re: 16-Oct-12 World View -- Scotland independence from UK

Post by gerald »

gerald wrote:John, on your masthead you have a chart --"State of the world" - last up dated February 12, 2011, conflict level next 6 to 12 months, Europe - low risk.

Considering the state of Europe today do you still think so?

There appear to be others that may have a different opinion.

http://rt.com/news/switzerland-prepares ... nrest-263/

Professor Schindler predicts that, “if the next Anders Brievik were to target Muslims, not fellow Europeans, things could get unimaginably ugly very quickly,” which could trigger widespread Muslim uprisings in Europe.

Police work with golden dawn against immigrants in Greece using violence and threats
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-19976841

Like Germany in the 1930's ?

Trevor
Posts: 1209
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 7:43 am

Re: 16-Oct-12 World View -- Scotland independence from UK

Post by Trevor »

Police work with golden dawn against immigrants in Greece using violence and threats
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-19976841

Like Germany in the 1930's ?
There's a good chance that Greece is going to go down that road once the crisis truly begins. I'm not sure who else will; France and Spain are both possible candidates.

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