As a computer programmer myself, I have no criticism of the software,
and I certainly don't blame them because a decimal point was
mis-punched on a punched card Fortran program.
But I have little sympathy for the "Limits to Growth" authors who
became trapped by their own rhetoric. No matter what valid
statistical conclusions they may have reached, the fact that they
translated those conclusions into an anti-American political message
deserves condemnation. If you're going to use pseudo-science to
deliver an anti-American message, then you'd better be sure you don't
make any mistakes, or pro-American commentators like myself are going
to ridicule you. That's life.
The "Limits to Growth" concept is OK if stated as a mathematical
proposition, not as "proof' of the moral turpitude of America. I've
frequently written that the population is growing exponentially faster
than the food supply, and that this is going to lead to world war that
will kill some 3 billion people, leaving the population at around 4
billion. That's a message with no political content whatsoever, and
so nobody wants to hear it.
Now contrast my statement with what it says on the Club of Rome web site:
2052: What will the future hold?
Over the next 40 years the world population is likely to grow from
close to 7 billion to 8-10 billion (the estimates vary) people,
with a corresponding increase in demand for energy, land, water
and food, resulting possibly in a tripling of GDP. It is assumed
that the population will level off at around 8-10 billion in 2045
– a unique era in human history.
These developments are bound to further increase humanity’s
footprint and to reduce resilience in natural and social
systems. They even carry the potential of propelling us into an
unknown world, driven by non-linear processes, largely out of
human control.
How can we maximise our chances that, by 2052, in 40 years time,
we can look back and understand, that we have succeeded in
transiting into a fundamentally more sustainable, equitable and
peaceful world? By
- Redefining the values which effectively guide the development
of society
- Developing a new economy, both in theory and practice, so that
- natural and social capital are correctly valued
- new financial markets deliver the goods and services
mankind needs in and for a sustainable world
- sufficient jobs are created to allow a decent income for all
- Creating appropriate governance institutions on a global,
national and local level
http://www.clubofrome.org/?p=2114
This is gobbledygook. "Redefining the values which effectively guide
the development of society"? This is total crap, and it's why I
criticize politicians, analysts and journalists all the time. The
entire Club of Rome analysis proves that the "non-linear processes"
are not just possible, but absolutely certain. And of course, the
most important non-linear process is a new world war, which they
essentially prove is coming, but they don't say that. Instead of
saying we're headed for a world war, they publish nonsense, and allow
it to get translated into an anti-American message.
When they start being a lot more honest about what's going on in the
world, then my opinion of them will change.
Beyond that, I just don't believe that computer models have any
validity beyond a few years. The 1972 Club of Rome computer model was
based on a world run by survivors of the Great Depression and WW
II, and a technology world where a typical computer filled an entire
room. Today the world is run by people who can't even find China on a
map, and computers fit in your pocket.