27-Dec-12 World View -- Asians talk about China/Japan war

[John]

27-Dec-12 World View -- Asians increasingly talk about war between China and Japan

Gun Control versus 3D printing

** 27-Dec-12 World View -- Asians increasingly talk about war between China and Japan
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 27#e121227


Contents:
Gun Control versus 3D printing
Asians increasingly talk about war between China and Japan


Keys:
Generational Dynamics, gun control, 3D printing,
China, Japan, Senkaku, Diaoyu

[OLD1953]

3D printing will eventually reach a point where it's cheaper to print many items at home or in a "kinko" type printing facility than manufacture them in a factory. At that point, those items are effectively removed from the economy save as raw material supplies. The economic structure will change drastically over a relatively short period of time, and it won't much resemble what we now call capitalism. Or communism for that matter or anything else currently extant. It will be something entirely new, even if we call it by an old name.

It is odd to realize how few people actually think WWIII is even possible, much less regard it as something that will start in the next few years.

[gerald]

3D printing will eventually reach a point where it's cheaper to print many items at home or in a "kinko" type printing facility than manufacture them in a factory. At that point, those items are effectively removed from the economy save as raw material supplies. The economic structure will change drastically over a relatively short period of time, and it won't much resemble what we now call capitalism. Or communism for that matter or anything else currently extant. It will be something entirely new, even if we call it by an old name.

It is odd to realize how few people actually think WWIII is even possible, much less regard it as something that will start in the next few years.

It is interesting to note, I have read that "time is short" from some odd sources about some profound game changers. However a "good war" would probably stop these potential changes. Definitely not good.

[Jack Edwards]

Regarding 3D printing: a few years back I took my son to check out Engineering Schools. We visited one school and they had a prototype 3D printer that would actually "print" metal. They had a grant from the Navy to experiment with it, apparently the idea was that if a ship broke down in the ocean, they could "print" the new part instead of carrying a huge storeroom. They showed us some very intricate and small things they had done. One was a braided sphere of metal with another braided sphere inside it. I believe it won't be too long until those are commercialized.

Regards

Jack

[Trevor]

I admit, if I was China and was planning on launching a major war, I'd choose a small country first. Probably the Philippines; they'd be unable to provide any effective resistance and claiming the country provides a major barrier for China that's quite difficult to penetrate. It's only a few hundred miles away, so it would be a lot easier to resupply than it would be for the United States. Not only that, their troops get experience and it's an excuse to build up the military even further.

[Reality Check]

I admit, if I was China and was planning on launching a major war, I'd choose a small country first. Probably the Philippines; they'd be unable to provide any effective resistance and claiming the country provides a major barrier for China that's quite difficult to penetrate. It's only a few hundred miles away, so it would be a lot easier to resupply than it would be for the United States. Not only that, their troops get experience and it's an excuse to build up the military even further.

With Obama re-elected, I can see China getting away with grabbing the Philippines. Followed by a "Peace in Our Times" compromise where China get's the South China Sea and some of the Philippine islands near Taiwan and Viet Nam, while China withdraws from the main Christian Islands.

But I can also see a miscalculation leading to a war between China and Japan that rapidly goes nuclear and thus eliminates Japan's high tech naval advantage.

John's repeated assertions that there need not be any rational logic to a sudden Chinese aggression ring more true every day.

[Marc]

I admit, if I was China and was planning on launching a major war, I'd choose a small country first. Probably the Philippines; they'd be unable to provide any effective resistance and claiming the country provides a major barrier for China that's quite difficult to penetrate. It's only a few hundred miles away, so it would be a lot easier to resupply than it would be for the United States. Not only that, their troops get experience and it's an excuse to build up the military even further.

With Obama re-elected, I can see China getting away with grabbing the Philippines. Followed by a "Peace in Our Times" compromise where China get's the South China Sea and some of the Philippine islands near Taiwan and Viet Nam, while China withdraws from the main Christian Islands.

But I can also see a miscalculation leading to a war between China and Japan that rapidly goes nuclear and thus eliminates Japan's high tech naval advantage.

John's repeated assertions that there need not be any rational logic to a sudden Chinese aggression ring more true every day.

Good analysis, Reality Check and Trevor, and yes, things are brewing more violently every month, it seems, in the South China Sea region. I do respectfully think, however, that if China tries to grab a country in the region or at least really subordinate it to its will, that the first country it does this to won't be the Philippines. The reason I think this is due to the "special relationship" that the United States has had with the Philippines; it was a US protectorate from 1898 to 1946. (America got it in the Spanish-American War, similar to Puerto Rico.) Perhaps a first country that China might decide to put the screws on is Vietnam, due to its lingering Communist regime (albeit softened up, like China's), and its being the adversary (at least its North) to the US in the Vietnam War.

I personally still think that China will be in a "Lebensraum" stage for a few years, perhaps lasting even into the early 2020s (maybe possibly longer if the world economy can somehow be kept from totally imploding), and that China is on a roll to scare its neighbors and America into getting its way regarding territorial rights. But, it is hard to predict for sure, and it gets more volatile and interesting every day. —Regards, Marc

[Trevor]

Well, that's just what I would do in that position, considering how strategically valuable the Philippines are. We also would have a very difficult time defending them, at least in the short run.

Personally, I don't think they're planning to start the war for a couple more years yet. We're scaling down, reducing our military to European levels, and I wouldn't want to interrupt that. However, there's also the possibility of miscalculation, such as Japan firing at one of their planes and China replying with a frenzied response into war, so I suppose it can go either way at this point.

[at99sy]

Seems like a conflict in the SCS is too obvious. As China has simply purchased the mineral rights to much of Africa with no expenditure of force. Then populated many regions of Africa with Chinese ex-pats to "occupy" these new territorial claims, what benefit would China have in forcing a militaristic conflict in the SCS? Rather than being antagonistic it would make better economic sense to form those same trade "agreements" with the minor players in the SCS and then use that as leverage to force the trade hands of Japan and the Philippines. Anyone have any thoughts about the belligerence in the SCS as a distraction for an overland
acquisition, say Burma, or Mongolia. If they went into Burma as a force of "peace", they would have direct access to the Bay of Bengal and overland routes to transport goods and materials already exists. This could provide them with a backdoor access to raw materials if the SCS gets too hot. Mongolia has enormous mineral deposits and a fair amount of agriculture with a very small military. I would "take" them and this would provide direct access to the steppes of Russia and all of the resources contained. Just thinking that the obvious is sometimes an illusion. Like the current administration acting like a dog in heat over banning guns to protect the "people" from themselves. It has nothing to do with public safety, but everything to do with disarming the public. A public that was entrusted with the ability to toss out a tyrannical government.

cheers
sy