19-Apr-10 News -- Threats of summer war in the Mideast

[John]

19-Apr-10 News -- Threats of summer war in the Mideast

** 19-Apr-10 News -- Threats of summer war in the Mideast
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 19#e100419

Contents:
"Stories of Hizbollah receiving Scud missiles raises Mideast tensions"
"Additional Links"

[thomasglee]

Korean situation

John,

I thought you might find this linked piece - "Avoiding the Next Korean War" - interesting. The author, Joshua Stanton, is a respected "Korea watcher" and he provides great analysis. It seems as if the mood in Korea is beginning to turn toward retaliation for the sinking of the Choenan.

[John]

Dear Thomas,

> Korean situation

> John,

> I thought you might find this linked piece - "Avoiding the Next
> Korean War"
> http://www.freekorea.us/2010/04/17/avoi ... orean-war/ -
> interesting. The author, Joshua Stanton, is a respected "Korea
> watcher" and he provides great analysis. It seems as if the mood
> in Korea is beginning to turn toward retaliation for the sinking
> of the Choenan.

Thanks for pointing that out.

Listening to the BBC news this morning, I noticed that they gave great
emphasis to the statement by President Lee that he would deal with the
situation in an "unwavering and resolute way."

I would be concerned that the situation might spiral completely out of
control -- and it might -- but I imagine that already the Americans
and the Chinese are talking about how they're going to keep the kids
under control.

John

[thomasglee]

Dear Thomas,

> Korean situation

> John,

> I thought you might find this linked piece - "Avoiding the Next
> Korean War"
> http://www.freekorea.us/2010/04/17/avoi ... orean-war/ -
> interesting. The author, Joshua Stanton, is a respected "Korea
> watcher" and he provides great analysis. It seems as if the mood
> in Korea is beginning to turn toward retaliation for the sinking
> of the Choenan.

Thanks for pointing that out.

Listening to the BBC news this morning, I noticed that they gave great
emphasis to the statement by President Lee that he would deal with the
situation in an "unwavering and resolute way."

I would be concerned that the situation might spiral completely out of
control -- and it might -- but I imagine that already the Americans
and the Chinese are talking about how they're going to keep the kids
under control.

John

In my personal opinion, it won't spin out of control. As mentioned before, South Koreans are used to this kind of stuff and even with the north bombed an airliner in 1988, they did nothing (in 88 they didn't respond because of the Olympics. This year, they won't respond because of the upcoming G20 Summit). Additionally, Obama is not going to let them do anything the will risk adding any burden to his already miserable (IMHO) foreign policy. Lastly, as you mentioned, the Chinese will do what they can to prevent escalation as they will worry that if the north loses a war, then the US and ROK will be directly on their border.

I suspect that, if anything, China will convince the north to "sacrifice" some soldiers in a battle (likely another sea battle) to appease the ROK.