26-May-10 News -- Is North Korea preparing for war?

[John]

26-May-10 News -- Is North Korea preparing for war?


** 26-May-10 News -- Is North Korea preparing for war?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 26#e100526

Contents:
"North Korea responds to South's president's speech"
"Will there be a war?"
"Additional links"
Austerity programs in countries across Europe threaten the economy

[jullien]

To John Xenakis :

The conspirationists circles have found a new toy : they believe the elements quoted for involving North Korea on the sinking of the Cheonan are fakes.
So I have a question : is the assumption that reality always is hidden and ignored, being determined by bribes and secret business (what we call now conspiracy theories) a feature of crisis eras ?
I have almost nothing about this question. I know that under the French Revolution a lot of people believe they were threatened by "aristocratic plots", under the Terror thousands were sentenced for imaginary plots with England, Prussia, Austria or Russia and the legend of masonic conspiracy appeared in the late 1790's. It seems in the 1930's a lot of people believe in a jewish conspiracy for world dominium.

[John]

Dear Jullien,

> The conspirationists circles have found a new toy : they believe
> the elements quoted for involving North Korea on the sinking of
> the Cheonan are fakes.

> So I have a question : is the assumption that reality always is
> hidden and ignored, being determined by bribes and secret business
> (what we call now conspiracy theories) a feature of crisis eras ?

> I have almost nothing about this question. I know that under the
> French Revolution a lot of people believe they were threatened by
> "aristocratic plots", under the Terror thousands were sentenced
> for imaginary plots with England, Prussia, Austria or Russia and
> the legend of masonic conspiracy appeared in the late 1790's. It
> seems in the 1930's a lot of people believe in a jewish conspiracy
> for world dominium.

I don't know if conspiracy theories occur only during Crisis eras. I
know there were a lot of conspiracy theories during the 1970s. One
that I recall hearing about all the time was that David Rockefeller,
Henry Kissinger and Zbigniew Brzezinski were controlling the world
through the Trilateral Commission. In fact, come to think of it,
there are a lot of conspiracy theories today in Awakening era
countries like Lebanon, Iraq, Iran and Thailand.

John

[xakzen]

To John Xenakis :

The conspirationists circles have found a new toy : they believe the elements quoted for involving North Korea on the sinking of the Cheonan are fakes.
So I have a question : is the assumption that reality always is hidden and ignored, being determined by bribes and secret business (what we call now conspiracy theories) a feature of crisis eras ?
I have almost nothing about this question. I know that under the French Revolution a lot of people believe they were threatened by "aristocratic plots", under the Terror thousands were sentenced for imaginary plots with England, Prussia, Austria or Russia and the legend of masonic conspiracy appeared in the late 1790's. It seems in the 1930's a lot of people believe in a jewish conspiracy for world dominium.

My take is that most people like to entertain conspiracy stories for their entertainment value. Though it only takes two people to constitute a conspiracy. And if this unraveling in America is any indication, the reduced creditability from the gov & large institutions through rampant corruption adds fire to the theories.

[JR]

Thanks for yet another fascinating article. But I think the North Korean situation is going to work out surprisingly well. Remember when the die-hard Russian Communists overthrew Gorbachev? Oopsie-daisy! My prediction again: the Dear Leader dead or in exile by 5/20/11. If there's a war, it fizzles, with massive surrenders in the North.

John, you say,

>North and South Korea are in generational Crisis eras, and there's a clear fault line with >enormous anger and hostility across it. ... At some point, maybe tomorrow, maybe next >month, maybe next year, the North Koreans are going to panic.

With respect, I don't think that "the North Koreans" is a meaningful term. Perhaps 2% of the population has any influence, however indirect, on policy, or has any ability to advance their own personal interests except by laying low. Possibly fewer than that have any experience with critically analyzing information, having been subjected to arbitrarily inconsistent information their entire lives, with almost no supplementary information, very limited market feedback, and all legal organizations directly sponsored and minutely controlled by the State. They have learned that official information is nonsense, and that they'd better pretend to believe it.

So maybe the Dear Leader and his cronies panic, but not everybody. The people have learned how to survive, and it isn't by taking risks.

>The North Korean army has a million men. They could swarm across the demilitarized zone >and be in Seoul in a few hours, and they could be motivated by the promise of free food in >Seoul. Given a choice between going on for months and years with little food for himself and >his family, versus going to war to solve all his problems, it's clear what choice he'll make.

Except that he's not stupid enough to think it will solve all his problems. He and his family have been ground down for five decades plus, and he knows the NK state has nothing to offer but more misery. He didn't stay alive this long by believing what he was told, but by following orders when he had to, taking no initiative. Some significant portion of the officer corps knows an attack would be suicidal, and their families already have food. The Allies (good guys) can credibly offer the masses more food, better and faster, if folks will surrender or lay down their weapons and go home. Or let them capture vast, ill-organized stores of fatty foods and alcohol, and let them gorge themselves and fall asleep.

Bear in mind, too, that if there is an invasion, the NK chain of command will be totally disrupted within 60 minutes. Again, the officer corps knows this, especially the General Staff. To whom will the Dear Leader - the elderly, frail, incompetent Dear Leader, trying to secure the succession for his worthless son - give his orders? To the incompetent toady General, or to the one who knows he is smarter? Not to mention all the Generals already in the pay of the US or ROK - and don't kid yourself, there's plenty, we just don't know who.

Three words: Kiel Mutiny, 1918. Link: http://www.firstworldwar.com/atoz/kielmutiny.htm

[The Grey Badger]

I've been running the Korean situation past a friend whose dad was a veteran. She says "Let the million NK soldiers come, bottle them up in the DMZ, and offer free food to any who defect. Carpet-bomb the rest." She points out the DMZ is highly defensible.

I'm no military strategist, but as far as I can see, the only problem with that is the toll it would take on all the wildlife that used the DMZ as an animal sanctuary over the past 60 years.

[John]

Dear Pat,

> I've been running the Korean situation past a friend whose dad was
> a veteran. She says "Let the million NK soldiers come, bottle them
> up in the DMZ, and offer free food to any who defect. Carpet-bomb
> the rest." She points out the DMZ is highly defensible.

> I'm no military strategist, but as far as I can see, the only
> problem with that is the toll it would take on all the wildlife
> that used the DMZ as an animal sanctuary over the past 60 years.

If you're looking for possible Korean War strategies, a web site
reader just sent me a link to an article entitled "The Ghost of Donald
Rumsfeld," about a scenario developed when Rumsfeld was Defense
secretary.

http://pajamasmedia.com/richardfernande ... epage=true

John

[John]

> Except that he's not stupid enough to think it will solve all his
> problems. He and his family have been ground down for five decades
> plus, and he knows the NK state has nothing to offer but more
> misery. He didn't stay alive this long by believing what he was
> told, but by following orders when he had to, taking no
> initiative. Some significant portion of the officer corps knows an
> attack would be suicidal, and their families already have
> food. The Allies (good guys) can credibly offer the masses more
> food, better and faster, if folks will surrender or lay down their
> weapons and go home. Or let them capture vast, ill-organized
> stores of fatty foods and alcohol, and let them gorge themselves
> and fall asleep.

Well, maybe you're right and the North Koreans will be completely
logical, and follow your logical reasoning, and decide that it's
better just to sit there and starve to death rather than taking
action.

You can use the same kind of logical reasoning to prove that Pearl
Harbor was never bombed or that Fort Sumter was never fired upon.

Or, alternatively, maybe Kim Jong-il is under so much political
pressure to do something that he's screaming, "Just plug the damn
hole!" and government factions that want a war will prevail, even with
all the risks.

We'll just have to see what happens.

John