Thanks for yet another fascinating article. But I think the North Korean situation is going to work out surprisingly well. Remember when the die-hard Russian Communists overthrew Gorbachev? Oopsie-daisy! My prediction again: the Dear Leader dead or in exile by 5/20/11. If there's a war, it fizzles, with massive surrenders in the North.
John, you say,
>North and South Korea are in generational Crisis eras, and there's a clear fault line with >enormous anger and hostility across it. ... At some point, maybe tomorrow, maybe next >month, maybe next year, the North Koreans are going to panic.
With respect, I don't think that "the North Koreans" is a meaningful term. Perhaps 2% of the population has any influence, however indirect, on policy, or has any ability to advance their own personal interests except by laying low. Possibly fewer than that have any experience with critically analyzing information, having been subjected to arbitrarily inconsistent information their entire lives, with almost no supplementary information, very limited market feedback, and all legal organizations directly sponsored and minutely controlled by the State. They have learned that official information is nonsense, and that they'd better pretend to believe it.
So maybe the Dear Leader and his cronies panic, but not everybody. The people have learned how to survive, and it isn't by taking risks.
>The North Korean army has a million men. They could swarm across the demilitarized zone >and be in Seoul in a few hours, and they could be motivated by the promise of free food in >Seoul. Given a choice between going on for months and years with little food for himself and >his family, versus going to war to solve all his problems, it's clear what choice he'll make.
Except that he's not stupid enough to think it will solve all his problems. He and his family have been ground down for five decades plus, and he knows the NK state has nothing to offer but more misery. He didn't stay alive this long by believing what he was told, but by following orders when he had to, taking no initiative. Some significant portion of the officer corps knows an attack would be suicidal, and their families already have food. The Allies (good guys) can credibly offer the masses more food, better and faster, if folks will surrender or lay down their weapons and go home. Or let them capture vast, ill-organized stores of fatty foods and alcohol, and let them gorge themselves and fall asleep.
Bear in mind, too, that if there is an invasion, the NK chain of command will be totally disrupted within 60 minutes. Again, the officer corps knows this, especially the General Staff. To whom will the Dear Leader - the elderly, frail, incompetent Dear Leader, trying to secure the succession for his worthless son - give his orders? To the incompetent toady General, or to the one who knows he is smarter? Not to mention all the Generals already in the pay of the US or ROK - and don't kid yourself, there's plenty, we just don't know who.
Three words: Kiel Mutiny, 1918. Link:
http://www.firstworldwar.com/atoz/kielmutiny.htm