28-May-10 News -- Tempers flare on Korean peninsula

[John]

28-May-10 News -- Tempers flare on Korean peninsula

** 28-May-10 News -- Tempers flare on Korean peninsula
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 28#e100528

Contents:
"Terrorist bomb in southern Russia kills people at concert"
"Tempers flare in North and South Korea"
"'Freedom Flotilla' of humanitarian aid heads for Gaza"
"Additional links"

[thomasglee]

I just returned from an annual defense electronics show that I attend every year. All the talk amongst the attendees was about the pending war between the Korea's as well as what appears to be a pending war between Israel and Turkey. Many of our Israeli and South Korean customers (defense contractors) are sure there will be war this summer. The Israeli's I know were more adamant about their coming war, but my main focus is in Korea and even the Koreans are sure there is going to be war (although they think it will be limited) between the Korea's. north Korea is saying they will not release the ROK workers living in and running the ROK factories located in Kaesŏng (an area in north Korea) and Lee Myoung-Bak has replied that if they do not, he will launch Apache Helicopters and Special Operations Soldiers to rescue them. I enjoyed dinner and drinking on more than one occasion this week with Korean defense contractors and what seems to worry the Koreans more than anything is China's growing role in controlling the north as an unofficial province of China. This reason alone seems to make the south Koreans want a war to make sure that China does not exert proxy control by a Chinese installed government in the north. The South is willing to endure a north Korea run by KJI, but they will not endure a north Korea run by China.

[John]

Dear Thomas,

> I just returned from an annual defense electronics show that I
> attend every year. All the talk amongst the attendees was about
> the pending war between the Korea's as well as what appears to be
> a pending war between Israel and Turkey. Many of our Israeli and
> South Korean customers (defense contractors) are sure there will
> be war this summer. The Israeli's I know were more adamant about
> their coming war, but my main focus is in Korea and even the
> Koreans are sure there is going to be war (although they think it
> will be limited) between the Korea's. north Korea is saying they
> will not release the ROK workers living in and running the ROK
> factories located in Kaesŏng (an area in north Korea) and Lee
> Myoung-Bak has replied that if they do not, he will launch Apache
> Helicopters and Special Operations Soldiers to rescue them. I
> enjoyed dinner and drinking on more than one occasion this week
> with Korean defense contractors and what seems to worry the
> Koreans more than anything is China's growing role in controlling
> the north as an unofficial province of China. This reason alone
> seems to make the south Koreans want a war to make sure that China
> does not exert proxy control by a Chinese installed government in
> the north. The South is willing to endure a north Korea run by
> KJI, but they will not endure a north Korea run by China.

A NY Times article today confirms what you're saying:

> I was struck by how few people on our campus evinced any real
> anger toward the regime of Kim Jong-il.

> This lack of indignation is mainstream here. Most people now
> accept North Korea’s responsibility for the sinking that killed
> Mr. Mun and 45 other sailors. A small but sizable minority suspect
> an elaborate government conspiracy of some sort. What almost all
> seem to share is the desire that South Korea put this unfortunate
> business behind it as soon as possible.

> Support for military retaliation appears confined to those too old
> to fight. Even the rather mild measures that the South Korean
> president, Lee Myung-bak, announced on Monday — which included the
> drastic reduction of inter-Korean trade and resumption of the
> propaganda war along the demilitarized zone — have caused
> widespread hand-wringing.

> http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/28/opini ... rs.html?hp

This article is very interesting in that it goes on to a generational
interpretation of what's going on, comparing the attitudes of Korean
War survivors, who are angry at the North, versus younger people who
are sick and tired of hearing awful things said about the North.

This is consistent with what you hear -- that the young people think
that there'll be a war, but they don't think it will amount to much.

It would not surprise me if the North Korean people feel the same way
-- they're sick and tired of hearing various beloved Leaders tell them
how despicable the Seoul government is, and that any conflict will be
resolved quickly.

So you have the same kind of self-delusion in both countries, with
young people in each country believing that their blood brothers in
the other country will back off from doing much harm. As I recall,
this was the same kind of attitude that Southerners and Northerners
had in America in the 1860s, until the Battle of Bull Run convinced
them otherwise.

John

P.S.: I really doubt that there'll be a war between Israel and Turkey
this summer. Between Israel and Hizbollah or even Israel and Iran I
could believe, but not between Israel and Turkey.

[John]

P.S.: I really doubt that there'll be a war between Israel and Turkey
this summer. Between Israel and Hizbollah or even Israel and Iran I
could believe, but not between Israel and Turkey.

Did I really say that? What could I possibly have been thinking?

John