30-May-10 The rise of left-wing violence around the world

[freddyv]

In response to freddyv: You had me at "I love that we elected a black man president." It seems to me that you are an atypical Tea Partier, for all the reasons you listed. (By the way I think the racist aspect of the TPM has been way overplayed). If all the Tea Partiers were like you, hell, I'd join, but then who would watch Fox news? I'm curious, what has been your experience rubbing shoulders with your fellow party members. Is it not true that you don't share many of the same values, and don't you find that they quote Glenn Beck and Bill O'Reilly and the rest of the gang?

I love Glenn Beck. Have you watched him? He talks about returning to basic values mostly and while he is a conspiracy theory nut he is on to some real good basic ideas. Anyone who watches him knows he only wants the best for America and its people. I would say the same is true for Rachell Maddow (disagree with her usually) and Bill O'Reilly but then you get to people like Oberman and Rush who mainly want to vilify the other side at any expense. Hannity is just a bore because he will never even consider the opposing POV.

I have a test I give to people I talk politics with: If you could replace Bush/Obama with you or your choice for President, would you? Anyone who says yes has no respect for our country and what has proven to be an outstanding system over the course of our history. The people who say yes, by definition, support totalitarianism. What would your answer be?

I heard about a black guy who went to a Tea Party event to see how he would be treated. He said he was treated very well and he felt no racism at all. I do know conservatives who are racist but that's more of a generational thing and most younger people, regardless of political bent, are less likely to be racist. That there are few minorities at Tea Party events does not make the attendees racist. That's like saying that black people who voted for Obama because he's black are against white people; hell no, they're just trying to get represented.

I've been to one Tea Party event and I was surprised at why anyone would fear these people - they are your grandparents and your parents and your neighbors who actually take care of their yard. These people look to me to be the salt of the earth and they were more libertarian than republican, IMO. Libertarians are rarely racist, in my experience. I didn't see a single person who looked like they would be rushing off to the country club or a KKK meeting after the event.

So think about this: I am a Tea Party supporter and you KNOW my views while it seems you're mainly going off of common misperceptions to judge the Tea Party; why not talk to more and let that define your views of the Tea Party rather than what other people say about Fox News or the Tea Party?

BTW, I consider myself a Tea Partier and conservative. I would never try to restrict what any leftist, liberal or progressive says. I would never try to restrict their vote. I have no doubt that many on the far left would gladly use the power of government to restrict my right to express myself or vote or manage my own health or live where I choose, or work at what I want to work at. Whether someone gets something for nothing is much farther down on my list.

Fred

[freddyv]

> Why am I the bad guy here? I think I know. All you devoted
> followers have sparkles in your eyes when you look at John and
> can't see the reality.

If you really want to know why you're the "bad guy," I'll try to
explain it to you.

...

John,

Don't waste your time. I learn a lot from your site and would prefer you are setting your own agenda.

I am probably one of your most ardent followers but there are many things I don't agree with you about, despite that I have learned from you and Strauss & Howe much about Generational Dynamics and it has allowed me to always have a solid foundation for all the other data I see. It is important that you continue to do what you do. I assure you that you are wrong about some things, as we all are, but I also know that you are doing something important here and while you should always question your methods and motives you should not allow a blatent partisan to get you sidetracked. If your life is anything like mine these days you don't have time to scratch your ass. Me? I spend my time building my business like there is a coming depression; learning all I can about history, sociology, politics and finance; and trying to take care of the people I love and get them to where they can survive whatever the world throws at them.

Fred

[Oakwood]

Fredyv wrote: I love Glenn Beck. Have you watched him? He talks about returning to basic values mostly and while he is a conspiracy theory nut he is on to some real good basic ideas. Anyone who watches him knows he only wants the best for America and its people.

Fred, I am nearly speechless. With the exception of what you said about Glenn Beck I am thoroughly impressed and heartened. I consider myself a Ron Paul libertarian, although perhaps the emphasis we place on certain values is different. No, basically I believe Bush was legitimately elected (let's not forget the Florida hanky-panky). He also lost the popular vote. However, I think Bush trampled on the Constitution, but not enough to get himself impeached.

My views: I'd get rid of the electoral college in the future. I think we should legalize pot and probably decriminalize other drugs. We could save a hell of a lot of money by releasing and not arresting non-violent drug offenders. The war on drugs has cost this country so much in so many ways. I'm absolutely opposed to illegal immigration but I hate the idea of cops asking us for papers. It's just one step down the road to fascism. I'm really surprised the right doesn't recognize that's exactly how the Nazis began their reign of terror. We have wasted lives and money in Iraq and Afghanistan and have done nothing, nothing at all to keep our country safe. At least while Saddem was around he kept Iran in check; now we have to do all the heavy lifting as well as keep Iraq together. No one has ever won any victory in Afghanistan and nor will we; I am appalled that such a smart man like Obama is acting like he has no understanding of history. Can you imagine how much good that money could do for our country if used here (or just not spent)? I think health care should be available to everyone like food and water, but the current legislation is abysmal.

As for Glenn Beck, when a man is so intellectually dishonest and implies that people (eg the president) is a Nazi and a fascist because he wants to pass health care then I thnk the man is below human. While most people can see beyond such claptrap, many/most of his loyal viewers can't, and like a rumor, such hatred spreads and magnifies.

[John]

Dear Freddy,

> I assure you that you are wrong about some things

This is probably a good time to repeat something that I haven't said
in a while.

When I say that I'm not here to promote a personal ideology, I really
mean it.

The predictions and analyses that I post are mathematically derived
from the Generational Dynamics theory and methodology that I've
developed. I've posted many things that I find hard to believe, or
that are counter-intuitive, or that seem completely wrong, or that I
hate, or that keep me awake at night.

My educational background is as an undergraduate and grad student at
MIT, studying mathematics, specializing in Mathematical Logic. I
spent six years studying mathematical logic, and I passed the course
and exam requirements for a Ph.D., but didn't complete my thesis.
Thus, I sometimes claim to have an "all but thesis" degree for a
Ph.D. in Mathematical Logic at MIT.

I mention this now, because it's relevant to the point I want to make.
Generational Dynamics is essentially a mathematical model for how the
world works. The predictions and analyses that I post are derived
from that model. Based on my education, I am perfectly capable and
qualified to separate out mathematical conclusions from my own hopes,
desires, dreams, wishes, and beliefs. It's like saying that 2+2=4,
irrespective of your ideology.

I know that a lot of people don't believe this, but the "List of major
Generational Dynamics predictions" is nothing short of breathtaking, a
breakthrough of major historical proportions. Speaking as a
mathematician and historian, before I became aware of generational
theory, I would not have believed that such a list was possible.
Today I know that there's no web site in the world with the predictive
success of this web site, because I know, as a mathematical
conclusion, that no world model could be more accurate than the
Generational Dynamics model.

So when you say that you know I'm wrong, I really have to caution you
to be careful, because you're not disagreeing with me. You're
disagreeing with a mathematical model that has proven correct over and
over again for many years now.

Over the years, people have frequently told me that they're absolutely
certain that I'm wrong. Occasionally I give them a very simple
answer, that I'll give to you now:

I hope you're right.

John

[Oakwood]

John wrote: Today I know that there's no web site in the world with the predictive
success of this web site, because I know, as a mathematical
conclusion, that no world model could be more accurate than the
Generational Dynamics model.

John, I say this not to be flip or challenging, oppositional or querulous. But given your impressive background (and I mean that sincerely), wouldn't it be rather easy and convincing for you to do a statistical analysis of your predictions? Once and for all you could have data in hand and shut up doubters and "imbeciles" like me?

[freddyv]

Hi John,

It has occurred to me that the BP oil spill may turn out to be the economic equivalent of the dustbowl of The Great Depression. When I first had the thought I wanted to dismiss it as a stretch but then I thought about it for awhile and I realized that both where not just natural disasters but were caused by people who became complacent and failed to take reasonable precautions, mainly because of GD at work.

Your opinion?

Fred
http://www.acclaiminvesting.com/

[OLD1953]

Well, he certainly beat out the DOW 36K boys and the new economy boys and the "miracle recovery" boys.

An alternative but equivalent way of looking at things is to look at that freeloader concept I mentioned above.

The hero generation can't afford freeloaders, is intolerant of them, and has very few of them.

The artist generation expects troubles, but expects work as well. They don't allow for much freeloading.

The prophet generation expects their parents to provide. They tolerate far more freeloading than the previous two generations.

The nomad generation believes not only in freeloading, they consider it a gift from God. If you are fool enough to support them, they'll laugh at your idiocy.(reference the ENRON emails on the trading floor) They want it all, now, and the size of the scam is limited by the intelligence and ego of the individual. None of these will ever consider themselves freeloaders, they are just a damn sight smarter than you are, "the smartest guys in the room" and they'll tell you so in a heartbeat.

Eventually, the system breaks down under so many freeloaders.

A freeloader is someone who takes without any discernable production.

[vincecate]

An alternative but equivalent way of looking at things is to look at that freeloader concept I mentioned above.

I think this is a good way to think about it.

[John]

> John, I say this not to be flip or challenging, oppositional or
> querulous. But given your impressive background (and I mean that
> sincerely), wouldn't it be rather easy and convincing for you to
> do a statistical analysis of your predictions? Once and for all
> you could have data in hand and shut up doubters and "imbeciles"
> like me?

I would love to do that, but I have no idea how to do it. To do a
statistical analysis, you need some kind of time series of numeric
values, and the Generational Dynamics predictions are nothing like
that. (In fact, according to Chaos Theory, those are exactly the
kinds of things that are impossible to predict, just as it's
mathematically impossible to predict the weather more than a few days
in advance.)

One of the issues that you and others have raised has to do with the
time frames for predictions to come true.

So it's worth pointing out that there are some "negative predictions"
-- predictions that something won't happen -- that are less
susceptible to this problem. In fact, it's the negative predictions
that have really convinced me personally that this stuff was working.

The predictions for the Awakening era countries -- Lebanon, Iraq, Iran
and Thailand -- have been negative predictions, usually predicting
that there won't be a civil war, or that once started, a civil war
will fizzle quickly. Particularly in Lebanon and Iraq, and to a
lesser extent in Thailand, the world's analysts and journalists were
absolutely certain that there would be a full scale civil war, and
there wasn't. These negative predictions turned out to be very
convincing.

The case of Sri Lanka was both positive and negative predictions. It
was clear that the Sri Lanka civil war was climaxing, and I was able
to predict that it was coming to an end with an explosive climax. But
I was also able to predict that there would NOT be further violence
after the climax, just as there was no further violence after the fall
of Berlin. Everyone else in the world was predicting that the 30-year
long civil war would continue for many years, but indeed all violence
stopped after the Tamil Tigers were defeated. I was actually very
nervous about making the "no further violence" prediction, and I've
always felt that the sudden and immediate end of violence was almost
an "eerie silence." But there it is.

That leaves the "big ones," the predictions of major financial crisis
and world war, and related predictions. What I'm afraid of is that
all of these will come true almost at once through a domino effect.
When that happens, I guess that it will really prove that Generational
Dynamics predictions are valid, but I don't know how many of us,
including me, will be around long to see it.

John

[John]

Dear Freddy,

> It has occurred to me that the BP oil spill may turn out to be the
> economic equivalent of the dustbowl of The Great Depression. When
> I first had the thought I wanted to dismiss it as a stretch but
> then I thought about it for awhile and I realized that both where
> not just natural disasters but were caused by people who became
> complacent and failed to take reasonable precautions, mainly
> because of GD at work. Your opinion?

That's a very interesting comparison.

You know, there's a very odd feeling surrounding the Gulf of Mexico
oil spill. It's such a huge disaster, that it actually seems like
something out of the Old Testament. I'm not a religious person, but
if I were, then I'd be wondering how the people of the U.S. had sinned
so much that God had decided to inflict this disaster on the country.
If I were a religious person, and given my view of what's happened in
the past couple of years, I would probably wonder if God was punishing
America for praying to a false god -- someone who claimed that Katrina
wouldn't have been so bad if he had been President, and someone who
claimed that he would heal the earth when he became President. This
would truly be Old Testament revenge against someone who is reduced to
squeaking about how BP shouldn't pay too much in dividends, as if that
had anything to do with the catastrophe.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, disasters like the
dust bowl or the oil spill occur at various times. Whether they're
inconviences or utter disasters depends on how people react, and that
depends on the generational era.

Would the oil spill still be a catastrophe during an Awakening era?
Well, there would be a much better quality of leadership, and there
would be a hell of a lot less political bickering, and a much more
unified desire to solve the problem. Also, there would be a hell of a
lot more money available, to send to the people of Florida and
Louisiana to help them get their lives together, including starting
new businesses to replace their lost fishing-related businesses. When
you're a survivor of a genocidal crisis war, then later catastrophes
seem smaller by comparison.

John