19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation

Discussion of Web Log and Analysis topics from the Generational Dynamics web site.
John
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19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation

Post by John »

19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation kills Chinese fishermen as Korea tension escalates

It's time to update the Conflict Risk Graphic

** 19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation kills Chinese fishermen as Korea tension escalates
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 19#e101219


Contents:
"It's time to update the Conflict Risk Graphic"
"Chinese fisherman die in confrontation with S. Korea coast guard"
"S. Korea postpones live fire drills near Yeonpyeong Island"
"Russia blames US for delaying UN Security Council meeting till Sunday"
"Additional links"
Israeli air strike kills five Gaza militants
Iran ends big subsidy on petrol (gasoline), causing big price increases
Arab states prepare Israeli denunciation for UN Security Council
Total eclipse of the moon on Monday night and Tuesday morning

burt
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Joined: Sun Jul 19, 2009 5:56 am
Location: Europe

Re: 19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation

Post by burt »

John wrote:It's time to update the Conflict Risk Graphic
Just my point of view (please do not hesitate to make correction to my english, this is NOT my mother tongue, and I apologize for the many mistakes I make):

on Europe the ACTUAL risk of a conflict is =0 for 3 reasons:
1-People don't understand what happens, and the REAL economic situation (for the real people) is about the same as what it was befor the crisis (crisis here is a word, the numbres are bad, but the people hadles that, this is a common crisis with NO political decision, as usual)
2-Even the street demonstrations are at a VERY low level of violence (medias shows a different image, but in Athen, France, Ireland, Italy nothing new) it means that people doesn't want yet ANY kind of confrontation, and politics continue to manipulate the people with the medias, so that by NOW, there is no way to construct a real opposition.
3-Europe is the contrary of an Union, every one speaks for himself without adressing the real problems, it means that no one is ready for ANYTHING (people are asleep and without any conscienceness of the world, as in the US, as it looks like from the news I have here)

But a risk of a military conflict between SOME countries of Europe (not ALL) and the north Africa is neutral (I mean the same as in 1960), BUT could escalate very quickly on some new important fact (not a single bombing, this wouldn't be enough)

Kasmir, from the news I have from people who went there within the next year, it looks like the risk is medium (people are very peaceful), BUT, could escalate very quickly based on discrimination facts.
On the same time, people does NOT want high violence, and they consider their problems as a local problem,
On the same time Pakistan and India manipulate people, so, from the news I have, the risk at 3 for Kashmir itself (a local war without global consequence) and 2 for the world (if it is a test region between China and India), with very low risk for foreigners.

India: The problem with India is that it is a very "non unified" country, and that it is unable to build infrastructure (the opposite of China) with a risk of revolution on the east coast and a risk of war with Pakistan. Too chaotic to be risky for the world, except if they unite themselves against China (not mature yet).

Korea, for me, it is only usual common wording (The US and South Korea WILL retreat, as usual), Words means that the risk cannot be evaluated, but I think that you are right, the actual generational change make the risk higher, but China does not want a conflict NOW, I think the risk level of 2 is correct, because there is no way, in my point of view, that EVEN if North Korea attacks (which is a possibility), even with nuclear weapons (which would be a suicide) this CANNOT actually escalate into a more important war.

China, before the change of its government in 2012, is NOT a dangerous country, and I do not see why it would overreact (no actual interest in doing that).
Within the 10 next years, China does NOT have interest in going into war, for internal reasons: it could destabilize its own regions (where the wording is "be rich and shut up"), for external reasons: the Army is NOT ready (yet) and that the ONLY interest of China is to become a LOCAL power over Asia: because of Pakistan, the history (and the actual conflict in interest) between China and India and South China sea conflict this could bring to a larger conflict, but this is nOT in the interest of China to make ANY move before 2020.

The world doesn't want war, World is NOT ready for a war, the only people who could want war could be the sunnis (and NOT the governments) and they do NOT have enough material to act, I mean that they are NOT ready YET.

My actual evaluation is that within the next 5 years, the risk of a global confrontation is strictly = 0, because NO important group is ready to act (even Russia).
I read a book which gives a different point of view as yours, ASIA is based on HOPE, North Africa and Middle East on HUMILIATION and the WEST on FEAR. Fear could jump directly into war, but not hope (it has to go through desillusion and then fear). This means that US and Russia ARE the main dangers for the peace YET.

This will change, but, yet, I do not believe in any important war before 2025, after that the probability is, omy point of view) VERY high, not because of a clash of civilization, but because a recurring SUICIDE pulsion that any civilization has (that is where your site is very useful for me, if gives me some logic to this suicide).

Regards
This is just a point of view (one among a lot, not more), not as paranoid as yours, with the same long term conclusion

Guest

Re: 19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation

Post by Guest »

With Europe plummeting into financial crisis, should its risk level be changed from 1 to 2?
Not for the moment.
First, "L'Allemagne paiera" (quiet ironic : it's a catchword from 1918-1919 but Germany paid only a eight of war reparations and in devaluated money). However a ruling by the german federal constitutionnal court is due in February. The Lisbon treaty has just been amended but that's the problem : it's a sort of admission the treaty was breached in May with the greek bail-out.
Second, Americans often underestimate how strong is the "europeism" (if you are against the european integration) or "europhilia" (if you are for) among european elites. I'm old enough to remenber the 1990's when it was clearly explained by our political leaders that the final goal was the "United States of Europe" and when to claim to love our beautiful France was called fascism. With the resurrection of french nationalism after 1998 and the failure of the European Constitutionnal Treaty in 2005 it is now just implied but some people still dream of the "USE" in day. And it seems to be the same thing in other western european countries (for eastern ones I am not sure : they seem to see EU as just an international organisation with plenty of money).
Third you perhaps forget one of your own teachings ;) . I mean the idea that a generational crisis always is followed by a recovery with wiser or at least more careful leaders (on another subject : do you know a constitutionnal convention has been elected in Iceland?). Maybe the ongoing project of "budgetary federation" would be the outdoor from generationnal crisis. Or not : it's just a proposal for the moment and an unpopular one.
However I disagree with a previous contributor about political violence in Europe : even if things could be worse to claim that things are just normal is to be in denial.

JULLIEN

Re: 19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation

Post by JULLIEN »

Oups just an error !
However I disagree with the previous contributor about political violence : to claim that things in western Europe are just normal is to be in denial. In the two last weeks we have seen riots in Greece, Italy and Russia, runaway strikes in Spain and huge demonstrations in Ireland. The spanish example has shocked me : the spanish governement used the army to manage the airports and let tourists and businessmen fly abroard. I believed only Reagan had done this before. Isn't Zapatero supposed to be a socialist ?
But don't let all those mess pertube you.
Have a nice day John.

JULLIEN

OLD1953
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Re: 19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation

Post by OLD1953 »

Turkey vs Greece seems very possible to me. Turkey is the wild card in the NATO alliance, they could literally do anything at this point in history. Italy is very angry at this point in time. Ireland is angry (yes, I didn't use the obvious pun) but seems unlikely to fight anyone right now.

I fully expect war in Korea before the end of summer - unless the world gives them enough food to pull through for another year. This is not something to bet on either way. The world does not want war in Korea, but the world is very weary of giving in to Kim. If the US doesn't do it, will anyone else?

There is a lot of disturbing news right now. North Korea may start a war this week. We'll know that one by the end of the week. It's just not possible to predict what they will do next.

China is a real wild card as well. China needs vast foreign investment and vast foreign income to keep from having a civil war at home. Given the deflationary nature of the world at this time, it's just not possible they can get it. Especially not when their own protests are making people wonder when they'll decide to nationalize foreign factories. The military manuverings along the India border are not inclined to fill me with confidence that China does not think they could win a two week war with India.

EVERYONE wants a "two week war". That's the whole thing in a nutshell. If North Korea thinks they can take over the South in two weeks, and then present the UN with a fait accompli, then they'll attack. If China/Pakistan think India will give up in two weeks, they'll attack. If Turkey thinks Israel or Greece will give up in two weeks, they'll attack. It's the very essence of nihilism and incompetence that people would believe that of their enemies, but that's a basic tenent of generational dynamics, that the generation before the next crisis will BE nihilistic. Believing the world will shape itself to your beliefs because they are just so true will turn and destroy you, and that goes for countries as well.

JULLIEN

Re: 19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation

Post by JULLIEN »

Well, here are my proposals :
- Europe without Russia : 1
- Russia/Caucasus : 3
- China : 2 for the first half of 2011, 3 for the second half and after
- Financial : obviously 3
- Middle East : 3
- Kashmir : 2 or more probably 3
- Korea : 3
- Global flu pandemic : 1

vincecate
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Re: 19-Dec-10 News -- China/S. Korean naval confrontation

Post by vincecate »

John wrote:It'll be interesting to see whether the Chinese make a big deal of this new incident at Sunday's U.N. Security Council meeting.
It seems there were about 50 Chinese fishing boats off the South Korean city of Gunsan. One of the Chinese boats took on the South Korean Coast Guard to make it possible for the other boats to get away. I think this is clearly South Korean territorial waters and not any disputed island in the South China Sea. So I would not expect China to make a big deal out of it.

Video in article below shows Chinese attacking Koreans with sticks or pipes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12026765

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