29-Jan-11 News-Fears of Muslim Brotherhood victory in Egypt

[John]

29-Jan-11 News -- Fears of Muslim Brotherhood victory in Egypt


Will the turmoil in Egypt unleash Hamas to attack Israel?

** 29-Jan-11 News -- Fears of Muslim Brotherhood victory in Egypt
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 29#e110129

[burt]

Just to come back on the "Generational Theory"

How could generations fight in Egypt if they agree AND if army is on the same side as the protesters (because they belong to the same generation)?

Who could fight who?

Your wrote that Egypt was deep in the Crisis Era:
-1- Do you refer at 1922, the end of the Ottoman empire
-2- If they are deep in the Crisis Era there should be (I think) 2 movements ready to fight, and what I see today is a big mess but without any people having the desire to fight. Where is the "Border line", the point of possible internal clash??

Then I consider that a risk for us on the West is IF Egypt moves to a radical Islam (as you wrote this is a very different point as the problem with the Mulsim Brotherood) and I also refer to:
http://bigpeace.com/abostom/2011/01/29/ ... ct-sharia/

Tunisia shouldn't but Egypt could (as long as the news I personaly have from Egypt are correct).
I'm not so sure that the army would accept that, but army could perfectly split in 2 parts (on a theoritical point of view).

Thank you for your point of view and the point of view of anyone who lives in Egypt OR was living a short time ago in Egypt

[John]

Egypt's last generational crisis war, as far as I can tell, is the
1948-49 war between Arabs and Jews.

I do not see Egypt heading for a civil war.

I do not see Egypt headed for an al-Qaeda type government.

The people at BigPeace.com generally take the view that every Muslim
is out to kill us. I've written about this a couple of times.

** American xenophobia on the Left and on the Right
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 07#e101107

** 1-Jan-11 News -- Andrew Breitbart: Even Muslims are afraid to stand up to Islamists
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 01#e110101

The poll that you reference reflects a yearning to restore what
Muslims had in the days of the Ottoman Empire. It does not mean that
Egyptians wnat to blow up Americans.

John

[burt]

I do not see Egypt heading for a civil war.

But you wrote http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 16#e110116 that

In countries like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, in generational Awakening eras, the Tunisian uprising may trigger riots and political chaos, but no prolonged violence.

In countries like Egypt, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, in generational Crisis eras, the uprising may trigger sustained violence, even a civil war.

[John]

I do not see Egypt heading for a civil war.

But you wrote http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 16#e110116 that

In countries like Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, in generational Awakening eras, the Tunisian uprising may trigger riots and political chaos, but no prolonged violence.

In countries like Egypt, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, in generational Crisis eras, the uprising may trigger sustained violence, even a civil war.

I've learned more about Egypt since then.

John

[burt]

I've learned more about Egypt since then.
John

Would you mind sharing that with us?
It is not only for Egypt but it could also improve my methodology

Regards

[howard in nyc]

I've learned more about Egypt since then.

John

what?? when you learn new information you change your mind? john, you'll never be a big-time pundit or politician with open-mindedness like that.

i love your blog, often i stay up late to see a fresh post. i am very glad to hear your thoughts on the unfolding scene in cairo. thanks for your excellent work, and your generous sharing of same.