26-Mar-11 News -- Syrian troops shoot to kill

[John]

26-Mar-11 News -- Syrian troops shoot to kill as tens of thousands protest across Syria

Protesters try to topple statue of president Assad's father

** 26-Mar-11 News -- Syrian troops shoot to kill as tens of thousands protest across Syria
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 26#e110326

[OLD1953]

It's unfortunate that rulers almost never realize they've entered a crisis period. If Assad did realise this, he'd simply be taking what he could steal and leave peacefully. Instead, he'll hang on and either drive the country into civil war or someone will kill him.

I was contemplating inflation/deflation vs attitudes about inventory carryover just now, and realized something. In a period of inflation, inventory carryover would be considered to be losing the company money, as inflated interest rates would give the appearance of a large amount of "lazy" capital in inventory, and that of course led to "JIT". In a period of deflation, inventory carryover will be considered to have a much smaller negative effect on the bottom line, and disruptions in supply would be much more important. It would appear to me, if you believe deflation is coming, you should invest in warehouses.

[vincecate]

I was contemplating inflation/deflation vs attitudes about inventory carryover just now, and realized something. In a period of inflation, inventory carryover would be considered to be losing the company money, as inflated interest rates would give the appearance of a large amount of "lazy" capital in inventory, and that of course led to "JIT". In a period of deflation, inventory carryover will be considered to have a much smaller negative effect on the bottom line, and disruptions in supply would be much more important. It would appear to me, if you believe deflation is coming, you should invest in warehouses.

On the other hand, in hyperinflation inventory, or any physical goods, will probably go up in value faster than the interest you could get in the bank. So hording any physical goods could be a good move for a company. So once again, invest in warehouses.

We sort of expect crisis around the world to cause disruptions in economic activity. If the number of disruptions around the worlds economy goes up, anyone using JIT has more chance of getting their own production disrupted. And when they are disrupted they may impact their customers. If a company has inventory of 2 weeks of the parts they need then they can ride out a 2 week disruption without wasting labor or hurting their customers. So we sort of think coming period is not good for JIT. This also calls for more warehouses.

[John]

> It's unfortunate that rulers almost never realize they've entered
> a crisis period. If Assad did realize this, he'd simply be taking
> what he could steal and leave peacefully. Instead, he'll hang on
> and either drive the country into civil war or someone will kill
> him.

Actually, Syria is in an Awakening era, something that I've avoided
attempting to explain in the daily postings.

However, the riots look the same, and your advice to Assad still
applies.

John