31-Mar-11 News -- US deepens involvement in Libya

[John]

31-Mar-11 News -- US deepens involvement in Libya, as rebels suffer decisive reversal

Obama orders CIA deployment in Libya

** 31-Mar-11 News -- US deepens involvement in Libya, as rebels suffer decisive reversal
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 31#e110331

[Levy]

I found this interesting analysis by Dr. Webster G. Tarpley published by Global Research and reprinted in Market Oracle:
"CIA Libya Rebels are Al-Qaeda Fighters From Iraq"
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27232.html

[burt]

I, as an European, just want to make some remarks:

- "Rebels" know marketing: suddenly they want "democracy": http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/ap_on_re_af/af_libya, this is for fun, they want assistance (air strike) from Europe, so they use the wording of the Europe media. Everyone wants the power that the oil gives, no one need democray, and these low-educated people want to support their tribe, not sharing power, what a stupid occidental dream...

- Why has anyone forgot the people of the Ivory coast? Now that "everybody" (I mean the media) knows that the Lybian proble is "solved" (this is the same wording the media had just afer the bombarding of the Taliban in Afghanistan, just a "cut and paste"), the media come back to the Ivory Coast, but no tomahawk in sight... Why? don't these people don't want "oil-democracy"? Are no humanitarian problem?

- No one in the European media knows Lybia, we are clearly misinformed. The joke is the "arab spring", as if we could compare the actual arab situation with 1968??? Journalists are stupid enough to compare situation which canot be compared, I'm getting upset.

- Europe is in a big mess:
-a- no one knows who the Rebels are,
-b- Even if Gadhafi is killed, it doesn't mean that Tripolitan are going to give up, and if they hold on their towns there is only one solution: partitioning Lybia, nice isn't it? But wait one year and the 2 countries should enter into war (they have very different history, and I don't see ANY reason why they should agree to live peacefuly side by side).
-c-This was an unlimited war, how can you handle that without a man on the Lybian ground (there are already a lot of military counsulants, but not too many soldiers). If Europe put soldiers on arabe's ground where will it stop? And what about the US with the crazy man who burned Coran and put it on Internet.
-d-If Gadhafi holds on, is he going to be happy and not searching for revenge? does anyone thinks that?
-e-if Gadhafi is killed AND Tripolitan agree to share the power, do you believe the new government will be European friendly?
-f- Now if Gadhafi is clever he just have to stay inside the main towns with its tanks and fire on anyone who approachs, the West can do nothing because it would mean killing a LOT of civilian, until now Gadhafi is quite stupid (hopefully for us) and just tries to fight, so he is easy to destroy, but wait just a while, and then??? Is there a pilot in the plane???

- There was no clear goal in this conflict, just a sudden agitation from Sarkozy, a friend from Gadhafi, suddenly against him, on what purpose? Can it be only on purpose of the 2012 election? may be, may be not.

Now the good point is that, on a military point of view, no-one can compare the situation in Lybia with the situation in Afganistan or in Vietnam. Lybia is flat with no forest ou mountains to hide into. The population is mostly on the sea side, there is no inland, so if the situation gets bad, it is easy to fire from the sea side.
The population is very small.

Another good new (indirect): Russia realizes its military power is in a very bad state. So it is an new oppotunity for Russia which tries to come by Europe AND Japan, BUT the russian population doen't want to accept that, but I gree with John, this is, I believe, the direction of the history. Let's see how it moves on the next years.

By the way the change of direction of such a large country as Russia takes time, so I do not see any risk of war within the next 5 years (my main opinion is that the world is in a nice state for the next 10 years, we'll see) The points to follow on are (on my point of view) Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, European debt, the link between Japan and China, South China sea. Any other point looks to me secondary (even the value of the dollar).

I mean by that, that Lybia is NOT an important point at the world level, BUT it is at the European level (for political reason and terrorism and over-stupidity about electoralism)

My new slogan is:
FIGHT FOR
the
TOTAL demOcratIc Life of the Best People fight on the earth

Remarks?

[John]

Dear Bertrand,

> Now the good point is that, on a military point of view, no-one
> can compare the situation in Lybia with the situation in
> Afganistan or in Vietnam. Lybia is flat with no forest ou
> mountains to hide into. The population is mostly on the sea side,
> there is no inland, so if the situation gets bad, it is easy to
> fire from the sea side. The population is very small.

A lot of people, including Saif Gaddafi and some analysts, have been
talking about "chaos" or "civil war" if Gaddafi steps down. In your
opinion, are these statements empty threats? What will happen
if Gaddafi steps down?

> By the way the change of direction of such a large country as
> Russia takes time, so I do not see any risk of war within the next
> 5 years (my main opinion is that the world is in a nice state for
> the next 10 years, we'll see) The points to follow on are (on my
> point of view) Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, European debt, the link
> between Japan and China, South China sea. Any other point looks to
> me secondary (even the value of the dollar).

I really have to caution you about this view. Please read the
following report from 2008:

** The gathering storm in the Caucasus.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... asus080817

Note particularly the excerpts from Norman Angell's 1910 book, and
from Maynard Keynes' 1920 book.

The arguments that were being made in those days are exactly the same
as the ones that you're referencing. But the correct constellation of
generations was in place, and all it took was the decision by one high
school student to assassinate an Archduke to trigger a war that killed
tens of millions of people. The world was in a "nice place" in
1914, but it didn't matter at all.

John

[burt]

Dear John
Thank you for your remarks

A lot of people, including Saif Gaddafi and some analysts, have been
talking about "chaos" or "civil war" if Gaddafi steps down. In your
opinion, are these statements empty threats? What will happen
if Gaddafi steps down?

Chaos, and?
It is already Chaos, the point is: what happens IF western soldiers put their feet on Lybia. Then it can go in any direction.
I do like like this stupid war.... Gadhafi is doing exactly what I thought was the best strategy for him, and this is not good for the west : http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/af_libya "Government bombardment pushes back Libyan rebels" they hide their tanks inside the towns.

I really have to caution you about this view. Please read the
following report from 2008:

** The gathering storm in the Caucasus.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... asus080817

Note particularly the excerpts from Norman Angell's 1910 book, and
from Maynard Keynes' 1920 book.

Yes, but you get NATO and UN, and with the exception of South China sea and Pakistan and Saudia, who wants to follow the others in a wide war? Allies is a very different concept today as the one it was in 1914, where Germany followed Austria because of "honor".
Today the trigger is "oil".
What I look for, is the first time that UN will proove itself ineffective (I thought it was going to be the case with Lybia, but no...)

BUT I agree that world looks more and more like pre-1914. The point is when will it crash, what will be the trigger?

Regards

Burt

[burt]

Just a remark
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110408/ap_ ... e/ml_libya
as I expected this guys don't understand that they are at war, they asked for help and then tried (without training) to fight Gadhafi (with no internal reason except that they wanted power, not democracy, power).
and now they reject NATO (but without NATO they are nobody)

From the media point of view in Europe: it looks like a "Mario Bros" game, it looks like it is only fun, electronic fun.

For me, as far as understand better what is a "generational Crisis era" it looks like a big one: No more sense of the reality (in Libya AND in Europe).

As long as I understand the situation (which is not sure), it looks like an ethnic fault, people frome the east against Tripolitans (otherwise Gadhafi would have been already killed by one of its generals) + it looks like they ake pleasure at killing each other + as long as I understand Libya's story, I can take for reference point 1930's as John did.
Then it should end very badly, IF people from the east receive weapons and training and arrive at the level of training of the Gadhafi soldiers.

I hope Europe will not put its fingers in the middle...

Remarks?