5-Apr-11 News -- Yemen's government appears near collapse

[John]

5-Apr-11 News -- Yemen's government appears near collapse, as Obama administration turns its back

France's troops and aircraft enter Ivory Coast conflict

** 5-Apr-11 News -- Yemen's government appears near collapse, as Obama administration turns its back
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 05#e110405

Contents:
"Yemen's government appears near collapse, as Obama administration turns its back"
"Additional links"
France's troops and aircraft enter Ivory Coast conflict
Western military advisers are becoming visible in Benghazi
Italy recognizes Libya's rebels as official government
Blogger: Libya action prepares for war with China
IMF pressures Greece to restructure / default on its debt
Hillary Clinton: the most popular figure in the administration
How to avoid identity theft scammers during the tax season.
Fake girlfriend service employs actual women

[OLD1953]

The US has worn out on war in any form, eight years ago we'd have been all over Libya. Interesting thought, will Libya be the training ground for the next European war?

I expected the advisors. They'll be in the fighting shortly.

The game of influence vis a vis the new Libyan government (assuming the rebels win) is on, it's naive to present this as "the US is cutting out China". It's more accurate to describe it as "everyone manuvering for influence with the new government of an oil rich country". Not nearly as exciting though.

Yemen is going to go the route of bloody collapse, and there's nothing anyone can do about it.

[kmarkw64]

I'm beginning to wonder what happens if the Arab nations all fall into civil war instead of becoming part of the Clash of Civilizations war. Is this a valid possibility? What causes nations to fall into civil war instead of going to war with other countries in a generational crisis era? If my questions are naive, or have already been addressed elsewhere, please forgive me.

Thank you,
Mark

[John]

Dear Mark,

> I'm beginning to wonder what happens if the Arab nations all fall
> into civil war instead of becoming part of the Clash of
> Civilizations war. Is this a valid possibility? What causes
> nations to fall into civil war instead of going to war with other
> countries in a generational crisis era? If my questions are naive,
> or have already been addressed elsewhere, please forgive me.

In order for a country to have a major crisis civil war, it has to be
in a generational Crisis era, and there has to be an internal fault
line across which the civil war will be fought.

Generally speaking, there are two major fault lines in the countries
of the Mideast: Arab vs Jew, and Sunni vs Shia. There are also
various ethnic fault lines, but those are the major ones that span the
Mideast.

Lebanon, Syria and Iran had major crisis civil wars in the 1970s-80s,
but today those countries are all in generational Awakening eras, so
they won't be having another civil war. They'll try to resist being
drawn into regional wars, but they may have no choice.

Egypt is in a generational Crisis era, but there's apparently no fault
line across which a civil war will be fought. For that reason, I
expect Egypt's crisis war to be an external war.

Several years ago, I would have thought that the Palestinians would
end up at war with the Israelis, and that's probably still true.
However, the split between Hamas and Fatah has shown that a component
of the war will be a civil war among the Palestinians themselves.

The real hotbeds of the Sunni/Shia split are in Saudi Arabia, Yemen,
Bahrain, and other Arabian Peninsula countries. That will also be a
factor in Pakistan.

Unfortunately, having a civil war does not prevent a country from
having an external war as well. In fact, one way for a government to
try to defuse a potential civil war is to try to unify the country by
declaring war against someone else. Declaring war on Israel, for
example, might be a tool to attempt to prevent a civil war in more
than one country.

John