20-Apr-11 News-Bahrain riots raise Saudi/Iran tensions

[John]

20-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia

-- Iran's government splits over how to take advantage of Arab uprisings

** 20-Apr-11 News -- Bahrain riots raise tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... b#e110420b

** 20-Apr-11 World View -- Increased concern over riots in Yemen
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 20#e110420

### World View 4/19/2011 - Increased concern over riots in Yemen

"Britain and France sending military advisers to Libya"
"UN Security Council and Gulf Cooperation Council concern over Yemen"
"Violence continues in Syria after 48-year-old emergency rule law lifted"
"Cuba's Communist Party Congress ends with promises, promises"
"Donald Trump surges in presidential public opinion polls"

[OLD1953]

Advisors are less than a shock to me, I expected them from day one, as I said here. Trump would be a dreadful President, but he'd have a strong chance of winning, IMHO. Can anyone think of an important President that came from a business background? The skills needed to succeed as POTUS and the skills needed to succeed at business don't seem to match up well.

[burt]

A question to John:
- Chiites and Sunnites hate each other, this has always been the case.
- If my numbers are correct Sunnites are 90% of the muslims Chiites 10%, so a war between the 2 groups (seen as such) is unthinkable
- Iran, yet, is alone, and is not going to move into the US camp within the next years (they shouldn't, they have to build their own nuclear bomb before this move)
- It is not clear for me why Iran gives weapons to Hamas, Iran has nothing to win from a conflict with Israel (any idea?) and Hamas are sunnites, no?
- Timing is not clear for me, but I do not see any reason, why there should be a hudge war in the Middle East right now (my opinion can change because everything is changing in the region), but "who against who"??? Saudi against Iran? no winner and Iran is not going to fight (Awakening era) and the world will not move to save anyone.

Regards

[John]

Dear Bertrand,

> It is not clear for me why Iran gives weapons to Hamas, Iran has
> nothing to win from a conflict with Israel (any idea?) and Hamas
> are sunnites, no?

It's really quite remarkable that Iran is funding Hamas, but it's
based on a religious fantasy, as far as I can tell, related to the
return of the 12'th Imam.

** Theological split in Iran widens as opposition protests continue
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 09#e091109

More prosaically, they believe that Iran can establish hegemony over
all Muslims, just as the Ottoman Turks did.

> Timing is not clear for me, but I do not see any reason, why there
> should be a hudge war in the Middle East right now (my opinion can
> change because everything is changing in the region), but "who
> against who"??? Saudi against Iran? no winner and Iran is not
> going to fight (Awakening era) and the world will not move to save
> anyone.

Iran certainly does not want a war, but they could be pulled in to
one just as America was pulled into the Vietnam war during an
Awakening era.

John