23-May-11 News -- Obama's new speech backs off

[John]

23-May-11 News -- Obama's new speech backs off on Thursday's Mideast policy announcement


The survival of Israel in a generational Crisis era

** 23-May-11 News -- Obama's new speech backs off on Thursday's Mideast policy announcement
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... b#e110523b


** 23-May-11 World View -- Major terrorist attack in Karachi
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 23#e110523



Contents:
"Obama's new speech backs off on Thursday's Mideast policy announcement"
"The next steps"
"The survival of Israel in a generational Crisis era"

### World View - Major terrorist attack in Karachi
"Major terrorist attack on Navy airbase in Karachi, Pakistan"
"Italy joins other PIIGS countries with ratings downgrades"
"Socialists suffer major defeat in Spain"
"Taliban fighters expand their summer offensive in Afghanistan"

Keys:
Generational Dynamics, AIPAC, Israel, Hamas, Fatah,
Benjamin Netanyahu, Jordan, Saudi Arabia

Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Karachi, Pakistan, Mehran naval base,
Tehrik-e-Taliban, TTP, P-3 Orion aircraft, Spain, Socialists,
Italy, PIIGS, Afghanistan, Taliban

[vincecate]

Another web site reader wrote the following to me on Sunday, referring to this "tectonic shift":

"I think you should be working hard to figure this out. You are probably one of the only people on the planet that can get even close, and it would be a great boon to have some clarity on who is going to fighting who. I think you have enough analytical skill to come up with some actionable data that could be used to make yourself a bunch of money on the currency markets."

I am REALLY flattered to receive this comment, but Generational Dynamics doesn't provide anything close to that level of precision. I've never made any money from Generational Dynamics, and I doubt that I ever will, and I certainly don't have a clue about the Mideast currency markets.

Much of the reason the dollar is the world reserve currency is that the Arabs price oil in dollars. See Petrodollar Warfare in wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_warfare Both Iran and Iraq started selling oil in Euros when they were particularly unhappy with America. If Saudi Arabia is not happy with America they might stop pricing oil in dollars. If Saudi Arabia started selling oil contracts in something other than dollars I think the value of the dollar would drop. Whatever they priced in would increase in value. Imagine they announced, "contracts for oil more than 2 months in the future will now be sold in Euros, gold, and silver only". Then the dollar would go down and those 3 things would go up.

Some of the wikileaks documents made it seam like Saudi Arabia thought they could tell America what to do. The big threat they have it to stop pricing oil in dollars. I can imagine Obama assuming that it was just a threat or that he could not do what they wanted and that Saudi Arabia would then really make the switch.

If there are people connected with the Saudi government that start investing in something big time, say gold or Euros, you might be able to tell they were about to switch to that. But I think it is easier to predict that they will switch away from dollars than to tell what they will switch to. Also, when they switch, the value of the dollar will go down and the price of anything measured in dollars will go up. So even if they don't start pricing oil in silver, the price of silver would go up when the dollar went down. Hard to say how much etc. but I think it will be substantial. If you could invest in the thing they switch to you would do better, of course.

They might price oil in some basket of things. Imagine a basket composed of Euros, Pounds, Dollars, Yen, gold, and silver. In this case, as the paper currencies go down in value, if the weighting stays the same, then gold and silver would become the dominate part. It would be a transition back to gold and silver as the world reserve currencies. I could see this happening.