8-Oct-11 World View -- Paramilitaries in Mexico drug wars

[John]

8-Oct-11 World View -- Paramilitaries may be joining drug wars in Mexico

Alan Greenspan: All econometric models have failed

** 8-Oct-11 World View -- Paramilitaries may be joining drug wars in Mexico
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 08#e111008


Contents:
### World View -- Paramilitaries may be joining drug wars in Mexico
Alan Greenspan: All econometric models have failed
Italy and Spain debt downgraded, Belgium is next
Paramilitaries may be joining drug wars in Mexico
Karzai: Taliban can't move a finger without Pakistan
Israeli Security: Violence by Jewish settlers and activists is growing

Keys:
Generational Dynamics, Alan Greenspan, econometric models,
Peter Orszag, Fitch Ratings, Moody's Investor Services,
dowgrades, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Dexia bank, Mexico, Veracruz,
Mexican Revolution, Afghanistan, Taliban, Hamid Karzai,
Pakistan, Israel, Shin Bet, IDF

[OLD1953]

The economic models now seem to consider the 1930's and the current economic events as a "singularity", where predictions can't be made. If so, they should admit they are flying blind, and state in public that they cannot tell what the results of their meddling will be.

The debt downgrades are not unexpected. I suppose the markets will rise on the news.

The Mexican govt is reluctant to truly reign in the drug cartels, because that is now their major source of US dollars flowing to Mexico. They can't allow such a challenge to their authority either - so they are schizophrenic on the issue.

I'll wager anyone the US will NOT pull out of Afghanistan on schedule in 2014.

Right wing, left wing, those are nearly meaningless terms today, about as meaningful as the economic predictions coming from the various bodies that issue such. The people who are marching, whether on Wall Street or in Israel or Egypt or Mexico all want the same thing, some form of security in their lives and certainty that it won't be taken from them tomorrow. They want predictability in all matters relating to security, whether it is food prices, housing costs, wages, inflation, deflation, or whatever other issue they deem relevant to their personal safety and well being. The real difference between them is in which issue they have personally selected as most important, and that's the one they'll march for. This does not mean all the other issues are NOT important to them, just that this particular issue is their own "most important" issue.

The entire world is beginning to scream for relief, and back to my old analogy, they want the bandaid ripped off, and QUICKLY!

[CrosstimbersOkie]

Paramilitaries may be joining drug wars in Mexico

"May be." It should be obvious.

I work in a federal prison and I've had more than one Mexican inmate tell me that I could make a lot of money as a guard or hired killer working for the cartels in Mexico due to my military experience. It would be an open secret on the Border if it were actually a secret.

[mannfm11]

The reason economic models aren't working is because continually following the economic model developed by bankers is what produced this mess. FDR put in policies that were meant to imply the banking system couldn't go broke. It took 70 years for the banking system to suck the collateral dry that would back up this model. The Austrian branch of economics wrote this story 100 years ago, but following this model wasn't conducive to running socialist governments and expanding financialization of economies, so it was not taught. The greatest danger to any intellectual is that their religion is false. We hear Obama speaking of economists backing his plan. The economists are clueless.

[boqueronman]

"Alan Greenspan explained why economists didn't predict the financial crisis:

"All the econometric models failed in 2008 - across the board. And the question is, would they have caught it if they had had more data.

I will submit to you, given the existing econometric structure..." blah, blah, blah.

The "econometric models" can no more predict the direction of an economy than climate models can predict the direction of the weather. The entire theoretical construct of econometrics is another neo-Keynesian parlor trick on a par with the analyses of "aggregates" of demand or supply. The million and one decisions taken every day by free peoples and a free market will always resist efforts made to put them in a box and take a picture.

As the 2008 event was unfolding I tried to find some person, some institution, or some theory that foresaw the unraveling what had appeared to be a stable economy. The two areas where there were warning of trouble ahead, if not the timing, were generational dynamics and the Austrian school of economic theory. Apparently neither Greenspan nor the author of this blog have ever heard of Mises, Menger, Rothbard, Hayek, Hoppe and their economic theory.

I suggest everyone do some research. There are many valuable financial and investment blogs by libertarian-Austrian economists. Find them. They will provide valuable perspective on the useful information presented at this web site.