Caucasus and Black Sea region

[John]

-- Caucasus and Black Sea region

Many times in the last six years, I've describe the Caucasus region
as one of the most dangerous in the world.

I've just written a length article on the relationship between
Ukraine and Russia:

** UK honors the journalist who documented Stalin's man-made 1932-33 famine in Ukraine
** Known as the 'Holodomor,' millions of Ukrainians starved to death.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 22#e091122

This goes into detail about the 1932-33 man-made famine that Stalin
inflicted on the people of Ukraine.

John

[Barion]

Who will be fighting whom in the Caucasus and Black Sea region, though? Russia v. Ukraine? And if this is part of upcoming WWIII (your so-called clash of civilizations world war), how will that play out when Russia will supposedly be America's ally once again, when Ukraine will also certainly be on America's side as well (Ukraine might as well already be in NATO)? Will it start out with Ukraine and Russia fighting each other in a regional war, but then both join forces with us when it expands into a global war against China and Sunni Islam?

[John]

> Who will be fighting whom in the Caucasus and Black Sea region,
> though? Russia v. Ukraine? And if this is part of upcoming WWIII
> (your so-called clash of civilizations world war), how will that
> play out when Russia will supposedly be America's ally once again,
> when Ukraine will also certainly be on America's side as well
> (Ukraine might as well already be in NATO)? Will it start out with
> Ukraine and Russia fighting each other in a regional war, but then
> both join forces with us when it expands into a global war against
> China and Sunni Islam?

Obviously there's no way to predict the answers to all those
questions.

During WW II, according to Russian accusations, the Ukrainians sided
with the Russians and the Nazis at different times. Something like
that may happen again. Also, we can't say "certainly" that Ukraine
will be on America's side, since NATO itself may be split.

http://en.rian.ru/russia/20091116/156858873.html

John

[Barion]

Also, we can't say "certainly" that Ukraine
will be on America's side, since NATO itself may be split.

You think NATO might not hold up when the big war comes around? What's the fault line? The new NATO bloc in Eastern Europe?

[John]

> You think NATO might not hold up when the big war comes around?
> What's the fault line? The new NATO bloc in Eastern Europe?

I've actually written about this a number of times, though not
recently.

The reasoning is that England, France and Germany have fought crisis
wars with each other every 80 years or so for millennia, and there's
absolutely no reason to believe that anything is different today.

** Europe in 'chaos' as Ireland rejects Lisbon Treaty
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 16#e080616

** France rejects EU Constitution
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... i.eu050601

I was actually surprised that the Lisbon treaty finally got ratified,
though it was against the wishes of most of the European people.

However, the selection-by-committee of almost unknown people (Herman
Van Rompuy and Catherine Ashton as President and Foreign Minister,
respectively) for the top offices shows that there is still little
faith in EU institutions, and that most decisions will still be made
by Gordon Brown, Nicolas Sarkozy, and Angela Merkel, and their
successors.

John

[Barion]

You think the original NATO membership will turn against each other? I find that one hard to believe, but I suppose anything is possible, especially during crisis eras.

[John]

> You think the original NATO membership will turn against each
> other? I find that one hard to believe, but I suppose anything is
> possible, especially during crisis eras.

These major crisis wars are almost always completely unexpected,
because of the element of panic involved.

I frequently point to Israel's 2006 war against Hizbollah as an
excellent example. The war was triggered when Hizbollah kidnapped two
Israeli soldiers on the border between Lebanon and Israel. Israel's
response was completely panic-driven. Israel went to war in four
hours, with no plan, no objective, and no idea what was going on.

If Lebanon hadn't been in a generational Awakening era, World War III
might have begun right then and there.

** How Israel panicked in pursuing the summer Lebanon war with Hizbollah
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 23#e061223

Americans were caught completely by surprise by the Pearl Harbor
attack. Britain was completely complacent when Chamberlain signed a
deal with Hitler. Nobody was expecting the US Civil War to be
anything more dangerous than a football game, until the Battle of
Bull Run. World War I was COMPLETELY unexpected by everyone -- it
began when some high school students decided to shoot an Archduke.

Last year I wrote a lengthy article on this subject:

** The gathering storm in the Caucasus.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... asus080817

Getting back to Europe, there's a lot of visceral hatred between the
English and the French. The French would still love to get even for
what Wellington did to Napoleon. With the right kind of trigger,
they could be at war tomorrow.

John

[Barion]

I wonder if America and Britain could someday be at war again, given some deep seated animosity between the average citizens of both nations toward each other. It baffles me to see the rhetoric and even attacks going on, primarily in Britain against Americans, as here in the States we tend to admire the British (that accent seemingly adds instant credibility to what anyone says for many people). I know lots of Brits love America/Americans, but we do have our confrontational past (Revolution...War of 1812, which must have been a crisis war for them given how brutal they were toward us while we just stepped aside, let them run rampage, then promptly kicked their asses once we regrouped--you probably wrote about this before...I seem to recall you describing the American Revolution as a crisis war for for us, but not for Britain, hence their surprise at our viciousness and why they didn't exactly bend the entire force and will of the British Empire toward crushing our little rebellion until it was too late).

[John]

> I wonder if America and Britain could someday be at war again,
> given some deep seated animosity between the average citizens of
> both nations toward each other. It baffles me to see the rhetoric
> and even attacks going on, primarily in Britain against Americans,
> as here in the States we tend to admire the British (that accent
> seemingly adds instant credibility to what anyone says for many
> people). I know lots of Brits love America/Americans, but we do
> have our confrontational past (Revolution...War of 1812, which
> must have been a crisis war for them given how brutal they were
> toward us while we just stepped aside, let them run rampage, then
> promptly kicked their asses once we regrouped--you probably wrote
> about this before...I seem to recall you describing the American
> Revolution as a crisis war for for us, but not for Britain, hence
> their surprise at our viciousness and why they didn't exactly bend
> the entire force and will of the British Empire toward crushing
> our little rebellion until it was too late).

America's Revolutionary War was a non-crisis war for Britain. The War
of 1812 was an Awakening era war for America. It was a crisis war for
Britain, but not because they were fighting Americans; it was a crisis
war for Britain because they were fighting Napoleon's France.

** French scandal over teaching 'La Marseillaise' in school.
** Why is the French national anthem so much bloodier than the Star Spangled Banner?
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 01#e050401

Today, I see absolutely no hatred between the British and the
Americans. Even when they saying that Tony Blair was George Bush's
poodle, that was a political argument, not a fault line conflict.
The fault lines today are Yankees vs Latinos in America, and Brits vs
immigrants in Britain. We'll also have to see how the French vs
Anglo-Saxon fault line develops.

John