Iran

[John]

Today I discovered that the "Iran" thread had disappeared. I searched
through the moderator logs and discovered that I must have
accidentally deleted it on January 9, when I was doing some working on
the forum. As it turns out, I have a forum backup from a few hours
earlier, but I don't know how to restore a single thread from the
backup. Someday I may figure that out, but in the meantime, this is a
new Iran thread.

Here's the introduction to the original Iran thread, posted on March
23, 2009:

Iran's last crisis war began with the Islamic Revolution of 1979, a
significant event that electrified the entire Muslim world, followed
by the invasion by Saddam Hussein's invasion of Iran and the Iran/Iraq
war, a brutal war that finally climaxed in 1988.

Today Iran is a nation is political conflict -- as all nations are in
an Awakening era. The Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war are
considered holy events. Those who were killed are revered as
religious martyrs, and the survivors -- the Hero and Artist
generations -- believe that it's necessary to maintain strict Islamic
morality, and to avoid any influences by the West, especially by the
Great Satan (the US).

The kids, the Prophet generation born after 1984, are the probably
the largest group of pro-American Muslims in the world. They see
absolutely no conflict between between following their religion
closely, but still adopting American and European styles and culture.

This generational clash is leading to a major political clash, like
the one during the American Awakening era in the 1960s and 1970s.

The big question right now is whether hardline President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad will win reelection on June 12, or whether he'll be
defeated by one of the "reformist" candidates favored by the kids.

** President Obama casts a vote against Iran's President Ahmadinejad
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 22#e090322

** China 'betrays' Iran, as internal problems in both countries mount
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 05#e080405


** 20-Feb-10 News - Russia 'alarmed' at Iran
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 20#e100220

Sincerely,

John

John J. Xenakis
E-mail: john@GenerationalDynamics.com
Web site: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com
Forum: http://www.GenerationalDynamics.com/forum

[John]

Dear Rob,

> Are you sure that a dictatorship wouldn't have the potential to
> change the role Iran could play in any future war? I'm certainly
> not an international expert by any means, but it does seem to me
> that dictatorships try to stick together. An example today would
> be Venezuela and Cuba. Granted, both of these countries
> nationalized a lot of foreign investments and, in the process,
> made enemies of many in the United States and European Union. Iran
> would not necessarily go down that route in a dictatorship, but
> unless America becomes a dictatorship, too, I cannot see an
> Iranian dictatorship as earning Iran brownie points of trust from
> the United States or Europe.)

You have to distinguish between crisis and non-crisis wars. Crisis
wars are fought at visceral, gut levels, where raw emotions take over
from politics. Thus, Hitler and Stalin were great buddies in the
1930s, but Stalin was surprised and shocked when Hitler invaded
Russia, leading to one of the bloodiest sub-wars of WW II.

Iran is a Shia Muslim country in a generational Awakening era.
They're going to do everything possible to stay out of war, except by
proxy. But they have powerful Shia crisis-era enemies, including
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. When forced to make a choice, my
expectation is that they'll choose the West.

> In general, what does it mean when the younger generation "loses"
> in the awakening period? How does this change the national psyche
> and international policy? In America, if the Boomers had somehow
> "lost" their rebellion, Nixon could have remained President and
> the Vietnam War could have been escalated for many more years.
> That could have, in turn, made the cold war much more intense and
> could have precipitated some type of show-down between the US and
> Soviet Union.)

When the kids "lose" in an Awakening era, it means that the older
generation uses massive military force to hold them down. One example
is the Tiananmen Square massacre in China in 1989. I've described
many other examples in the web log.

** Zimbabwe's 'Liberation Hero' president Robert Mugabe continues to destroy his country
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 04#e080504

** Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 26#e070926

> So does the youth "winning" during an awakening somehow "distract"
> a population from its foreign enemies to focus more on internal
> psyche? If this is the case, then a youth "win" in Iran in the
> coming years could mean a much less confrontational Iran in the
> future, focused more on improving itself rather than building
> nukes. Yet I am sensing that you are not equating dictatorship
> with a "win" for the older generation in Iran, are you?

> Bottom line: Could you elaborate more on these two concepts
> (youth "loses" during awakenings and democratic vs. dictatorship
> awakenings)? I am not following your logic that seems to suggest
> that a change in government would not affect the international
> scene in the future. This would be a most interesting full-fledged
> article if you were to write one...

You have to think about the phrase that I use all the time, "forced to
make a choice." Today, Iran can play all sides -- providing funds and
weapons to Sunni Hamas terrorists, providing funds and weapons to Shia
Hizbollah terrorists, providing bomb-making equipment to Sunni suicide
bombers in Afghanistan, providing weapons to Shia Houthi rebels in
Yemen. It's a great game for Ahmadinejad and Khomenei to play, and
they stick their thumbs in the eyes of the West for political
purposes.

But what will the Iranians do when they FORCED TO MAKE A CHOICE?
That's the question you have to answer.

John