the near future for america

[zyrktec]

Is it possible for America to be on the verge of a two stage crisis war?
I haven't read all your posts only a few at this point. I have been trying to absorb all the information and fit it into the present day trends taking place. it seems probable for America to be on the verge of a very bloody civil war, esp. if the economy completely tanks. the feel of the average Americans mood is angry and resentful at the government. what crept into my thinking is 'what if' America does descend into civil war and other regions of the world also descend into crisis conflicts at the same time? I am thinking the Caspian region, perhaps China internally. intense regional conflicts flaring up and spreading like wildfires. with America consumed by its own conflict could this expand into a global war? what starts out as a civil war is interfered with by outside powers and it expands to a global war?

the other question I have is: can there be a crisis war in which one of the antagonists is a loosely knit group or network of combatants that are not from within a nation and have no nation base they are fighting from? I am thinking about the recent Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Israel used extreme brutality on the civilian population. Is it possible for Muslims to form a union of hatred for Israel and launch a war against them without being an army from another nation? it would essentially be Hezbollah or something like it launching an attack against Israel.

[John]

> Is it possible for America to be on the verge of a two stage
> crisis war?

> I haven't read all your posts only a few at this point. I have
> been trying to absorb all the information and fit it into the
> present day trends taking place. it seems probable for America to
> be on the verge of a very bloody civil war, esp. if the economy
> completely tanks. the feel of the average Americans mood is angry
> and resentful at the government. what crept into my thinking is
> 'what if' America does descend into civil war and other regions of
> the world also descend into crisis conflicts at the same time? I
> am thinking the Caspian region, perhaps China internally. intense
> regional conflicts flaring up and spreading like wildfires. with
> America consumed by its own conflict could this expand into a
> global war? what starts out as a civil war is interfered with by
> outside powers and it expands to a global war?

Crisis civil wars require a fault line along religious, ethnic or
similar lines. The fact that people are angry at each other doesn't
mean that a civil war is about to break out. There is a major fault
line between Yanks and Latinos, and the expected new Mexican
Revolution is expected to spill over into the US.

> the other question I have is: can there be a crisis war in which
> one of the antagonists is a loosely knit group or network of
> combatants that are not from within a nation and have no nation
> base they are fighting from? I am thinking about the recent
> Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Israel used extreme brutality on the
> civilian population. Is it possible for Muslims to form a union of
> hatred for Israel and launch a war against them without being an
> army from another nation? it would essentially be Hezbollah or
> something like it launching an attack against Israel.

Despite the erotic fantasies of Hizbollah chief Sheik Sayyed Hassan
Nasrallah, Lebanon is in a generational Awakening era, and so a new
Hizbollah war against Israel would be as ineffectual as the last one.

A terrorist group can conduct low-level violence, including suicide
bombings, but without a country as a base, it can't defeat an enemy
like Israel. That's why al-Qaeda is trying to establish an Islamist
revolution in some country. After they lost Iraq, they're trying it
in Somalia, Egypt and Pakistan. The model that al-Qaeda is hoping to
follow in one of these countries is the 1979 Islamic Revolution in
Iran.

Sincerely,

John

[malleni]

....
Crisis civil wars require a fault line along religious, ethnic or
similar lines. The fact that people are angry at each other doesn't
mean that a civil war is about to break out. There is a major fault
line between Yanks and Latinos, and the expected new Mexican
Revolution is expected to spill over into the US.
...

It is too simple ... and of course - not quite correct.

A civil war - could have actually even more different reasons.

The simplest is - so called - "ideological".
(For example - Spain civil war)
Your (USA) civil war is perhaps also some kind of "ideological" too. (nothing to do with "religious or ethnic lines")

"Ideological" means that there are different views on same thing from two (or more) groups of people.
EACH country (exactly as EACH group of people) - could have it...
Simpler as this - it can not be...


So dear fellow Americans, do not be sure that you are (i.e. US) immune to civil war.
Actually you had already a severe one.


Situation can not be much better since - when Americans "choosing" their government.... they actually "choosing a foreign government" - i.e. a government which MUST look for the well of the another country.
Namely - a country of Israel.
All your president candidates fought to prove - "how much they LOVE the state of Israel" (NOT the US!!!!)... - and the Americans still believe that US government "working for the well of all fellow Americans"... )

If you still do not believe - try for example, just this from yesterday:
http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1070041.html

"...U.S. official slams Israel 'lobby' after withdrawing from post ..."

The boy said it - but he is of course NOT any more in position to say ANYTHING important!
"Death for American "freedom and democracy" politics!"
(the reason is well known...AND in country as US today - simply expected!)

Thousands of similar "exemplars" you are able to read about each day in "your politics"...
Only if you are blind, deaf, ignorant or plain stupid - you can just say: "NO! Our government "WORK" for our well"...
But it is up to you.

[malleni]

...and yes...

I just forget to say something regarding your statement about "terrorism".

Personally, I think that Americans need not to be afraid about terrorism.
Namely, the biggest terrorist on the Planet IS - the United States of America.

I.E. even if this state terrorized own citizen as well - it mostly terrorized the rest of the world.


The lobbyists form RAND group has a "brand new idea" - how to save US from recession:

Rand Corporation United States military to mention the "war to save the market" with great power war
http://translate.google.com/translate?u ... h-CN&tl=en

or another:
U.S. think tank, proposed 700 billion U.S. dollars to launch a war to save the market
http://74.125.77.132/translate_c?hl=en& ... NHmaCSdgHA

Perhaps it is already stated - and it looks like "land who MUST (!) give you (Americans) money (because you are bankrupt!) - could be the primary target!
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009 ... 565717.htm


So...
You are "safe" regarding terrorism.

Other nations are definitely - NOT...

(as long as US has gargantuan military complex, which is (it is not a joke!) - financed from the hard working nations from other part of the Planet! Sadly fir Chinese - mostly from them)

[Chim Richalds]

It is too simple ... and of course - not quite correct.

Actually it is correct, and not simple.

A civil war - could have actually even more different reasons.

The simplest is - so called - "ideological".
(For example - Spain civil war)
Your (USA) civil war is perhaps also some kind of "ideological" too. (nothing to do with "religious or ethnic lines")

"Ideological" means that there are different views on same thing from two (or more) groups of people.
EACH country (exactly as EACH group of people) - could have it...
Simpler as this - it can not be...

Simply put, non-crisis wars happen over political fault lines, while crisis wars happen over ethereal fault lines. So a crisis civil war happening over "ideological" disputes is HIGHLY unlikely. Crisis civil wars happen over ethnic, religious, and cultural disputes.

You mention the Spanish Civil War as an example. A closer examination would reveal that the Spanish Civil War was faught on a largely ethnic fault line--Castillian Nationalists v. Basque and Catalonian Republicans. The American Civil war was ideological in the sense that the two prevailing ideologies represented an underlying cultural rift. The Civil War wasnt really faught over slavery; that was just the raison du jour. THe Civil War was faught as an ethno-cultural conflict between Northern Americans and Southernors, who wanted their own state, and didn't want the Northerners telling them what to do. Ideological fault lines only become crises insofar as they represent ethnic, cultural, or religious sensibilities.

it seems probable for America to be on the verge of a very bloody civil war, esp. if the economy completely tanks. the feel of the average Americans mood is angry and resentful at the government.

A civil war in America is possible, but not remotely probable. A civil war in America would be fought on one of the existing fault lines, of which there are a few, but only two that, in my estimation, could turn violent. One is the North-South fault line, which is cultural, and manifests itself today in the urban-rural, red state/blue state divide. The American Civil War was faught along this fault line. This is unlikely to become violent due to John's "polya's urn" theory, which posits that wars happen due to events that happened during and immediately after the last crisis (it's a lot more complex than that, but ...). Since there hasn't been a significant flare-up of tensions between North and South within the last 100 or so years, I doubt this one will be exciting any passions. See John's "Why was there no Civil War II" for a good explanation on this.

There is also, argualbly, a black-white fault line. This one, however, has never turned violent during a crisis, and has manifested itself in largely political terms. However, there is another significant fault line between Hispanics on one side and Anglo-Americans (and likely African-Americans) on the other. This seems to be heating up. I would consider this the most likely fault line to become violent, especially as the situation in Mexico deteriorates.

This is what ifuriates me about the crackpots who quote Russian Professor Igor Panarin's ridiculous conspiracy theory about the United States collapsing into civil war and splintering into separate states. Basically, he says that the US will splinter into six different states (the Pacific coast; the South; Texas; the Atlantic coast, central states and the northern states) and each region will be dominated by a foreign power, i.e. Texas will be dominated by Mexico, etc.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... c&refer=us

I'm not saying a Civil War and collapse of the United States is impossible (although it's still highly unlikely), but his analysis ignores even the simplest of analyses of American culture or history. This guy is just blustering. And it's been picked up on by anti-American idiots all over the world

[JimZ]

Malleni,

I believe your statement:

just forget to say something regarding your statement about "terrorism".

Personally, I think that Americans need not to be afraid about terrorism.
Namely, the biggest terrorist on the Planet IS - the United States of America.

I.E. even if this state terrorized own citizen as well - it mostly terrorized the rest of the world.

is absolutely outrageous. I believe you are from Austria. I can think of one of your famous citizens who did a pretty good job of terrorizing the world back in the 1930's and 40's.

The U.S. rebuilt the world after world war II and has done a great deal of good in this world and for this world. You have no basis for accusing the US of "terrorism". While religious zealots are strapping bombs on their bodies and killing small babies without that slightest guilt, US soldiers are dying protecting civilians. This has happened around the world for decades - because remember that even in times of peace, you always had military accidents that took the lives of the men and women who serve in the US military.

The US has it's faults, but your criticism defies reason.

[StilesBC]

JimZ,

Unfortunately, you don't see the world the same way the rest of the world sees it. America has, for decades, been oppressive, imperialist and hypocritical when it comes to foreign relations. To unquestioningly believe the notion that they are doing everything with good intentions in order to "spread freedom and democracy" is incredibly naive. To be sure, many of the rest of the world's opinions about American aggression are sensationalized by their own media for selfish purposes and even downright jealousy. But that is not even the point.

It's the hypocrisy that gets most people. America has the greatest law ever written. They trounce around the globe proclaiming their superiority because of these laws that provide everyone equal rights to life, liberty and happiness. And it's true. America is superior because of these laws. Superior to Europe. Superior to China. Even superior to my Canada.

But the law has been ignored for nearly a century now and the frequency that it is trodden upon is accelerating. This is what the rest of the world's real grievance is. We want to see America obey it's own laws first. Then they can proclaim righteousness. People everywhere want to see true justice. When Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld, etc lied about the WMDs and used it to kill 1 million Iraqis, we all expected them to be impeached. When that didn't happen, we treated America the way we treat any other rogue state that lies constantly (Venezuela, Iran, China, Russia, etc): as if they and any of their actions, were illegitimate.

I give the chance of a second American civil war a far greater chance because of this. Many Americans are sick and tired of their rights being trampled over in the name of "security." Here are but a few examples:

1st Amendment - Libertarians, people who make references to the constitution, Ron Paul supporters, gun owners, gold owners, people who make references to a New World Order, a NAFTA super highway or FEMA camps shall be considered terrorists according to this brochure sent to the Missouri State Police. See the brochure here. Watch all the videos contained in this article. It is simply unbelievable. But it is all true.

2nd Amendment - Obama's calls to crack down on gun ownership. See this report from Lou Dobbs and these statements from Rahm Emmanuel, your new White House Chief of Staff. Keep in mind this terrorist list now has over 1 million Americans on it. There is no recourse and no explanation for being on it. I think they even put me on it years back. I get harassed any time I try to cross the border. So I stopped going through the hassle. Haven't returned for years.

4th Amendment - Trampled over in the name of sussing out terrorist threats. This should need no further explanation.

5th Amendment - Doesn't apply anymore if you can be considered a terrorist. Which itself can be determined by as much as committing a misdemeanor.

10th Amendment - What 10th Amendment? That's been the message for many decades now. The Federal branch operates as if it is supreme. This is why 27 States are now in the process of reaffirming their sovereignty and legislative superiority. See here.

Seriously. How much respect do you expect the rest of the world to give America when they can't even follow their own Bill of Rights?

That's not all. Emmanuel and Obama are both pushing and now rolling out their mandatory civilian service agendas. See it from their own mouths. And the whole administration seems to think it is a good idea to turn their regulatory duties over to some world regulator like the WB or the IMF and that they should collect global taxes on carbon emissions to fund their operation.

The American people are not going to let them get away with this. All it takes is one wrong move by either side (those upholding the constitution or the government) and this could go viral. Young kids without any job prospects will be easily convinced of this when they realize that terrorists abroad have no effect on them - rather it is the greedy banking elite at home that are their problem. If they think that the government and the banking elite are one and the same (which they are), it is not inconceivable for this to turn into an ideological civil war.

Lastly, your insinuation that Malleni isn't justified to criticize America because some tyrant was born in a related empire to his country 100 years ago does a disservice to your intelligence.

[zyrktec]

The world, and more specifically the United States, are in a Paradigm Shift. There are several trends coming together simultaneously over the next 15 years when all brought together create a rogue wave you read about that topples ships in the ocean. Well a tsunami is hitting America unlike anything ever seen in human history. You have the organized effort by the Elite to transform the world into a single economy and world government, but underneath this major energy wave you have an awakening occurring at the subconscious level that is undermining this major trend. People are waking up and this is due to the unforeseen impact the internet has had on making information accessible to the people. I like John's cycles of change for they are a handy tool for tracking the past to see what the future hold's, but I think there is a Black Swan event on the near horizon no one can foresee that is going to significantly change the face of the world of humanity. That is another one of the major waves I referred to which I think may be ecological in nature. Whether it is in the nature of catastrophic earthquakes or a world changing volcanic eruption, something is going to happen. A curve ball. With all the economic and political stresses I feel in the undercurrents of America there is a very real possibility for Civil conflict. A crisis event John describes beautifully that begins as something else and escalates ie. riots about the economy which give the Federal Government the excuse to declare martial law, suspending Congress, and the Constitution, and this triggers the Civil War.

[StilesBC]

zyrktec,

Recently, Baxter Laboratories has some questions to answer after mixing H5N1 (bird flu) with the common human flu and shipping it all over Europe as a test vaccine. According to a number of radio interviews with people trained in this line of work, it would be absolutely impossible for this to have been accidental. This was given a total media blackout in the US and UK, but was covered in Canada and Germany. See an article here: http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/s ... Flu_090227

Draw your own conclusions.

[malleni]

It is too simple ... and of course - not quite correct.

Actually it is correct, and not simple.
...

OK Chim,

I do not agree with you which does not mean that you are incorrect.

I said many times that "predictions" are nothing for normal people, but still everybody would like to do something with them.

Thank you for your long explanation in "generational dynamic" view.
I never thought that GD is not a good tool to TRY to get better picture about future.
BUT as each tool - it is just it... A kind of tool.
So even if you have the best workshop and tools for car reparations - it does not mean automatically:
1. that you are a good mechanical
2. that you are able EVEN to understand each problem and even less to solve all of them.

So I appreciate your confidence about future "predictions", but let me do not agree with you too.

...
I believe you are from Austria. I can think of one of your famous citizens who did a pretty good job of terrorizing the world back in the 1930's and 40's.

The U.S. rebuilt the world after world war II and has done a great deal of good in this world and for this world. You have no basis for accusing the US of "terrorism". While religious zealots are strapping bombs on their bodies and killing small babies without that slightest guilt, US soldiers are dying protecting civilians. This has happened around the world for decades - because remember that even in times of peace, you always had military accidents that took the lives of the men and women who serve in the US military.

The US has it's faults, but your criticism defies reason.
...

Jim Z,
I am sure that not me neither any of Austrians would denied all terror and atrocities Hitler regime made at that time.
It would be just stupid.

On the other side, I can understand that pure "patriotism" can make you blind to see today atrocities made by spreading of "freedom & democracy - made in USA".
StilesBC make very nice explanation with short "retrospect" on the couple - "very modern".
"The modern" ones, just as example - handling about millions of dead in accordance to "protecting civilians" and "spreading of freedom & democracy".

Hitler was actually quite clear in his message. He did not use kind of "human words" type: freedom, democracy, humanitarian... etc...
On the other side there are some similarities. He :
- would like to rule the World
- used massive military power to achieve those targets
- used surveillance over the own citizens
- practiced even extermination of those when "necessary" i.e. when those had not agreed with his "patriotic view"- (some kind of "German Patriot Act")

JimZ - it is a short answer on your comment.
I am almost sure (actually 100% sure) - that you cannot find 10 people between 10000 in Europe (excluding UK) - who can agreed that your policy of spreading "freedom & democracy - made in USA" and killing MILLIONS around the world - is the right one.
"Patriotic" maybe - but definitely NOT correct.
So do not be angry when "non-American" comment appear sporadically. Perhaps it is just good for both.
I would be happy if you can show to me some examples of "good" your Administrations in last couple decades made for the Planet. (Please, do not refer on the 2WW. Not that it is not interesting, but too much have happened after it.)