Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's
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These pages contain the complete manuscript of the new book Generational Dynamics: Forecasting America's Destiny, written by John J. Xenakis. This text is fully copyrighted. You may copy or print out this material for your own use, but not for distribution to others. Comments are invited. Send them to mailto:comments@generationaldynamics.com.

	War is God's way of teaching Americans geography.
		-- Satirist Ambrose Bierce (1842-1913)

How the nation and the world have changed since 2001!

Since World War II, America has acted as "Policeman of the World," defending freedom and democracy wherever it could. However, in the space of a few years, that's changed from a defensive role to a preemptive role. This is how the people of the idealistic Baby Boomer generation think of America, and how they want us, as a country, to act.

As the world's only remaining superpower, America is viewed not only by Americans but also by people around the world as the country that protects freedom and democracy around the world.

We use the phrase "manifest destiny" to describe what America's role has become. We chose that phrase to relate America today to Spain during the 1500s.

The 1500s were the Golden Age of Spain. The country was rich and powerful, and had just "discovered America," and had just completed the reconquest of Spain from the Muslims (see page [westeurope#24]). It became, in the minds of the Spanish people, the manifest destiny of Spain to be the power that would spread true Christianity throughout Europe and the New World.

America is viewed not only by Americans but also by people around the world as the country that protects freedom and democracy around the world

The period since World War II has been the Golden Age of America. Today it's our manifest destiny to defeat terrorism and lead the world to Democracy and Freedom.

This is an awesome responsibility. All Americans will be tested.

What you should do -- as an individual

Ever since I discovered, in 2002, that the Generational Dynamics methodology implies that we were already in a 1930s-style depression, I've been telling my friends the following: Even if you don't believe this conclusion, you should still protect yourself and your family by saving money and making only necessary purchases. I've been gratified to see several of my friends save themselves by exercising great care that they might not otherwise have exercised.

Unfortunately, it's human nature that human lives become cheap in times of war and financial crisis. So each person has to fill a dual role: Look for ways to serve your community and your country, but also make sure that you protect yourself and your family.

• Manage money wisely. During the 1990s, there were plenty of jobs and plenty of money. As we enter a time of worsening financial crisis, many people will become bankrupt and homeless. Take measures to make sure that this doesn't happen to you.
• Stay close to your family and community. When survival (financial or physical) is in question, then people need to gather together to protect each other.
• Develop 21st job skills. Computers and the Internet have changed the world and every job drastically in the last 20 years. It's not enough any more just to learn word processing and other basic computer skills. You have to develop new skills in music, writing, trade, management, and everything else. People who try to get along with 20th century skills will find that they no longer have jobs.
• Be kind and decent to people. Many people will be in distress, and a little kindness and decency can go a long way.
• Pay attention to current events, especially international events. If you've read this book carefully, then you have an idea what direction the world is going in. And remember, Generational Dynamics is a long-range forecasting tool; it tells you where we're going, but not you get there. This is a historic time, and you owe it to yourself to see how the world gets to wherever it's going.
• Consider joining the armed forces or taking a defense-related job. Patriotism isn't the only reason. An increasingly large portion of the nation's jobs will be defense-related, and this may be the best way to find a job. Eventually, some people may have no choice: it's hard to see how we'll get through a crisis war without reinstituting the armed forces draft.

What you should do -- as a community leader

If you're a political leader of a town, if you're the head of a school, business, labor union, church, youth group, or other organization, then you're in a position to help people, or to help people help each other.

• Encourage people to start community projects. With many unemployed people around, there are plenty of opportunities to organize people to do some good. These could be civic projects, such as repairing abandoned homes to give shelter to homeless people.
• Provide educational opportunities for people to learn new skills. Similarly, when there are many unemployed people around, there are opportunities for those with special knowledge or skills to give courses to the others. Everything from home repair to computer skills can be taught in this way.
• Keep businesses afloat by borrowing money. Interest rates are expected to remain near zero, making it possible for shaky businesses to stay afloat by borrowing money.
• Make your business a 21st century business. 20th century businesses will not survive. Transform your business into a 21st century business by taking advantage of high tech and the Internet.
• Promote community civil defense efforts. The last major war on American soil was the Civil War. America has been insulated from world wars in the past because the Atlantic and Pacific oceans have provided insulation. However, the spread of terrorism and weapons of mass destruction (including disease and chemical weapons) may bring war to American soil again. Local community preparation can save a lot of lives in such a case.
• Change your business to support the defense effort. It's legendary that when World War II began, General Motors changed overnight from a manufacturer of cars to a manufacturer of tanks. Look for ways for your business to do the same.

America's greatest danger is the belief that it can do everything

What you should do -- as a national politician

• Mute political differences. During a crisis period, when there's so much at stake, the public does not want to hear political bickering.
• Don't be too America-centric. It always amazes me how politicians and journalists blame or credit almost everything that happens in the world on America, sometimes even crediting something as trivial as a speech by a politician. This is particularly true of events in the Mideast region, where much that happens is because of the Orthodox Christian / Muslim fault line, or various ethnic fault lines -- things that few Americans even know anything about, let alone control. If you've read this book carefully, then you know that actually very little that happens in the world happens because of America.
• Avoid hubris. America's greatest danger is the belief that it can do everything. Remember the mythical story of Icarus, who escaped with his father from a prison island by wearing fabricated wings made out of feathers and wax and flying away. His father warned him that if he flew too near the sun, the sun would melt the wax in the wings. However, filled with hubris, Icarus thought he could fly to the heavens and become a god. When he tried, the sun melted his wings and he fell into the ocean and died.
• Prepare for the worst. There's a tendency in Washington to "shoot the messenger" who brings bad news about the economy or the world situation. The result is that the nation can't properly prepare for the future.
• Choose your battles carefully. Be especially careful to save firepower in the early battles, since things will get much worse before they get better.

History also tells us that we can win over terrorism during this crisis period. By proceeding with caution, America can fulfill its manifest destiny, can defeat terrorism, and can remain the greatest country the world has ever known by bringing freedom and democracy to the rest of the world!