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Generational Dynamics for Historians
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These pages contain the complete rough draft manuscript of the new
book Generational Dynamics for Historians, written by John J.
Xenakis. This text is fully copyrighted. You may copy or print out
this material for your own use, but not for distribution to others.
I am pleased to make this manuscript available online for questions,
criticisms and comments. This manuscript will be under active
continued development during the period it's online, so don't be
surprised to see changes from day to day. The manuscript is still
very rough in places, and some sections are not yet complete.
If you find an error or typo, please let me know. Since I try to fix
errors as quickly as possible, you should assume if you find one that
no one else has told me about it, and I don't know about it.
All Comments are invited. Send them to mailto:comments@generationaldynamics.com.
Sincerely,
John J. Xenakis
Table of Contents
Table of Figures
Preface
Theory outline
Cross-disciplinary studies
Prerequisites to understanding Generational Dynamics
History prerequisites
Chapter 1 - Basics of Generational Dynamics
America's crisis wars
Relationships between crisis and non-crisis wars
Crisis wars in other countries
What is genocide?
Stock Cycles, Long Waves and Kondratiev Cycles
Problems for review and research
Chapter 2 - Crisis Wars, Awakenings and Generations
Crisis Wars
Frequency of Crisis Wars
Crisis and non-crisis eras - Turnings
Generations
New research in generational theory
Principle of Localization and Merging Timelines
New Research: Suicide bombers and ....... (STAMP: Friday, December 2, 2005, 12:15:31)
Problems for review and research
Chapter 3 - Visceral Causes of Crisis Wars
Terminology describing cause of war
Visceral causes of today's crisis period
The Causes of the American Civil War
Tolstoy on the causes of war
The Southern causes for the Civil War
Violation of Constitutional Commitments
Finding a visceral spark
Slave insurrections
Conclusion: The causes of the Civil War
Life is a zero-sum game
Thomas Roberts Malthus
Population versus Food Availability
Population versus food in China
War deaths in World Wars I and II
The Malthus Effect
Moral and Immoral Wars
Problems for review and research
Chapter 4 - Chaos Theory and Generational Forecasting
An informal discussion of forecasting
Description of Short-Term Forecasting
Description of Long-Term Forecasting
Combining Short-Term and Long-Term Forecasting
Exponential growth trend forecasting
Summary of Generational Dynamics forecasting techniques
Looking ahead to attractors
Some techniques in forecasting methodology
Analyzing political events
Introduction to Chaos Theory
Weather Forecasts and the Butterfly Effect
Chaotic behavior and the double pendulum
Linear and Non-linear systems
The chaos of day to day politics
Isaac Asimov's Foundation Trilogy
Introduction to attractors
Fractals
Attractors in generational systems
Generational Dynamics world model - magic ball of yarn
Cyclic variables in generational politics
"Looking for reasons"
"Basins of attraction"
The "Puritan Flip" in Colonial America
Phase Locking and Entrainment
Equilibrium in economic systems
Phase locking in the spread of technology
Phase locking in generational systems
The Six Most Dangerous Regions of the World
Probabilistic Forecasts
Merging timelines
Probability of a regional crisis war
International situation in 2005
Summary
Problems for review and research
Chapter 5 - World Macroeconomics
Short-term financial forecasting
Long-term financial forecasting and the stock market
Short-term versus long-term forecasting
Price / Earnings ratios
How do we know we're close?
What you can and cannot forecast
Exponential growth and Price/Earnings ratios
Fallacies and hoaxes in financial predictions
Dow 36000 fallacy
Dow 300 fallacy
Harry Dent's bubble economy hoax
Price/earnings computation errors
Alan Greenspan's explanation for the 1990s bubble
Major international financial crises
Summary
Problems for review and research
Chapter 6 - Kondratiev Cycles and Generational Dynamics
The World War II anomaly
K-cycles in the Generational Dynamics model
Selection of war variables
Selection of technology and innovation variables
Selection of financial variables
Adding K-cycles to the Generational Model
The World War II Timeline
Adding the World War I Timeline
Summary
Problems for review and research
Chapter 7 - The Singularity
Plan for this chapter
Scenarios after the Singularity
Artificial intelligence versus "brute force"
Two kinds of "brute force" algorithms
The "granularity" of human thought
Unpredictable choices
Creativity
The Singularity
Can we stop the Singularity?
Implementing version 1.0
The Epiphany
Potential goal-setting problems with IC v 1.0
Self-preservation
The "Zero-Tolerance" Problem
Rules for IC soldiers
Unexpected consequences of rules in chess
The "Kill anyone who's not Chinese" problem
Block Diagram of Intelligent Computer Algorithm
Seeing and hearing with brute force pattern matching
Learning and logic with the "jigsaw puzzle" algorithm
IC experts
Jigsaw puzzle analogy
Knowledge Bits (KBs)
Attributes of KBs
"Noticing" physical objects
Obtaining sensual data
Example: Learning "Jane is Joe's sister"
Self-awareness, motivations, goals and sub-goals
Goal: Find all "sisters" in the room.
Kinds of KBs
Memory management and "Secondary Knowledge"
Wisdom versus Knowledge
Emotions, morality and logic
Wrapping up the Intelligent Computer algorithm
Partial proof that technological growth is exponential
Evolution and life elsewhere in the universe
What is intelligence?
Population growth and competition for resources
Natural selection in intelligent species
"Intelligence wars": Crisis and non-crisis wars
The maximum effective timespan
Crisis war cycle and maximum effective lifespan
Technology and merging timelines
After the Singularity
Technology development after the Singularity
Why haven't we verifiably detected life elsewhere in the universe?
Problems for review and research
Chapter 8 - The Crisis War Evaluation Algorithm
History of the Crisis War Evaluation Algorithm
Intuitive Description of Crisis Wars
Intuitive description of non-crisis wars
Wars which are both crisis and non-crisis
What makes crisis and non-crisis wars different
Gauging Public Attitudes
Criteria indicating crisis war
Primary criteria that identify crisis wars
Secondary criteria that identify crisis wars
Criteria indicating non-crisis war
Primary criteria for a non-crisis war
Secondary criteria for a non-crisis war
Evaluating wars which are both crisis and non-crisis wars
Complete Evaluation Algorithm for Crisis and Non-crisis wars
Overview of the evaluation algorithm
Overview of the four steps in the evaluation
Step 1: Evaluating historical significance.
Step 2: Determine intensity of genocidal violence
Step 3: Determine level of political considerations
Step 4: Determine the resolution of the war
American Wars
Sources
French Religious Wars
19th century wars of Southern Africa
Roman Crisis Wars from Buried Coin Hoards
Problems for review and research
Chapter 9 - List of Crisis Wars
Problems for review and research
Chapter 10 - Strauss and Howe's Fourth Turning Model
Summary of The Fourth Turning theory
Identifying generations and archetypes
Generational eras - the four Turnings
TFT's Diagonal Diagram: How one generation flows to next
TFT's Six Anglo-American Crisis Events (Fourth Turnings)
TFT's Six Spiritual Awakening Periods (Second Turnings)
Limitations and restrictions in the TFT model
The Generational Dynamics (GD) Model
Changes and Additions to the TFT model
The Generational Dynamics (GD) Model
The Principle of Localization
Derivation of Crisis War Criteria
Crisis War Criteria
Criteria indicating crisis war
Primary criteria indicating a crisis war
Secondary criteria indicating a crisis war
Criteria indicating non-crisis war
Merging timelines
Social Moments and Awakenings
TFT restriction to modern times
Problems with the secular/spiritual distinction
GD Awakenings
Using Crisis Wars as Anchors
The First Turning -- High versus Austerity
Defining the "Austerity" period
TFT's Civil War anomaly
The Nazi "Hero" Generation
Self-Correction and Restarting the GD Model
Applying GD to Premodern Times
Short and long generational cycles
Split-up of Anglo-American timeline
The 1600s colonies and the Puritan flip
The English 1600s timeline (Turnings schedule)
The Colonial 1600s timeline
Problems for review and research
Appendix: Cassandra
Problems for review and research
Bibliography
End Notes
Concept Index
Colophon
Book Cover
Art work
Front cover words
Back cover words
Description
Biography
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Copyright © 2002-2016 by
John J. Xenakis.
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